Turn Information into Knowledge (advanced guide)
(track the undecidable things)
In part one of Turn Information into Knowledge (a beginner’s guide), I reviewed the need to gain personal experience with information. Gaining experience through experimentation with and manipulating the data, arriving at something of value (knowledge) to you personally.
In part two, I discussed creating mental models and thinking tools from the information collected from various sources. Our Personal Knowledge Management (PKM) system is a carefully crafted database of practical knowledge that we use daily.
I’ll conclude the short series on turning information into knowledge with an example of tracking a current, open-ended issue in economics.
Allen Wilson (pseudoevagrius on the Zettelkasten.de forum) presents the idea of tracking open-ended lines of thought while pursuing his Ph.D. Wilson says: (1)
“Tracking these lines… these are kind of like the undecidable things… the things I’m not quite sure about or cannot resolve yet.”
Let’s examine a single ongoing example of tracking an undecidable thing. I have taken the example directly from my PKM, but I have removed some proprietary information per company regulations.
I like a hub (structure note) format for my use case, which allows me to comment as new information develops. I can document actions taken on current information.
Interest Rate Cycles
On March 16, 2022, the Federal Reserve, to combat inflation, raised the target range for federal funds to 0.25–0.50%, an increase of 25 basis points.
Inflation reached its peak of 9.1% in June 2022.
note: the following titles represent links to notations within my PKM.
All Markets Have a Cycle
Every asset class goes through a cycle, moving from a peak to a trough and then back to a peak. The duration of these cycles can vary across different asset classes, and one way to estimate their length is by staying informed through news sources. For example, an article in today’s Wall Street Journal suggests that the Federal Reserve will maintain its benchmark interest rate at its current level (a 22-year high)… The article indicates that interest rates follow a cycle of approximately 22 years.
(Article) US Banks down significantly after Federal Reserve announcements
March 16, 2020: “Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates to a range of 0% to 0.25%.” (COVID-19 pandemic)
note: “Action:” allows me to document any action taken due to the new information.
(R) Biden insists inflation is temporary
note: “R” represents a reference note within my PKM
July 19, 2021: “President Biden on Monday insisted that his massive spending plans aren’t causing price hikes on everything from bacon and bread to gas and electricity, saying inflation is “temporary” and “expected” after the COVID-19 pandemic.”
(R) Jerome Powell’s Not for Turning (interest rates) — Yet
November 2, 2022: The WSJ Editorial Board provides clear direction on how high the Federal Reserve might have to raise interest rates to bring inflation under control. “No disinflation we can remember was achieved without rates rising above the inflation rate.” The current Fed rate of 3.75–4% isn’t high enough to combat 6.2% inflation.
Action:
(R) What Happens if Interest Rates Stay High?
January 16, 2023: “The pervasive theme today is that inflation and interest rates will return to pre-2020 levels.” Martin Pelletier was the first person (I read) to ask the question: “What happens if interest rates stay where they are…”
Action:
(Article) Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes — for now
September 2023: Federal Reserve pauses interest rates after 11 hikes. The federal funds rate ranges from 5.25% to 5.50%.
Action:
(R) Make room in portfolios by buying less
October 5, 2023: WSJ article by Greg Ip: “Investors, asked to buy more bonds, gradually make room in their portfolios by buying less of something else, such as equities.”
Action:
Wall Street's Increasing Reliance on Prediction (Hub)
note: my interest rate notation crosses my open-ended note on prediction.
December 29, 2023: Author James Mackintosh’s opening statement in his article “How I, and Everyone Else, Got 2023 So Wrong.” “My biggest error in 2023 was the same as everyone else’s: being in the consensus that the fastest rate hikes in 40 years would cause a recession.”
Action:
(J) Little interest in returning to Zero
note: “J” represents Journal-entry in my PKM.
February 11, 2024: I’m hoping for a stable Fed Funds rate in the 4–5% range. I anticipate the era of free money and quantitative easing by the Feds to (artificially) lower interest rates to spur an economy on the brink of disaster is gone for good (this cycle, at least). I have little interest in returning to zero, let alone the economic calamities that would require the Feds to do so.
(R) At best, history only rhymes
April 4, 2024: “It’s tempting to read the Wall Street reports that can handicap rate cut odds to three decimal places… But the safe bet is to remember that, at best, history only rhymes. And when it comes to the US economy, perhaps it’s not ‘this time is different.’ Arguably, each time is different.”
Action:
I’ll track the line until something changes or until the undecidable becomes decidable.
Other undecidable things I find worth tracking (to name a few):
- Blockchain, i.e., tokenization of assets.
- “New” Capitalism.
- Trends in technology, i.e., remote work, cloud computing, digital transformation, artificial intelligence, digital transactions, metaverse, quantum computers, etc.
- Trends in health, i.e., bioprinting (organs and tissue).
- Online video streaming.
- Plenty of other things I don’t understand (but would like too).
Written May 20, 2024
Grammarly provided editorial assistance on this article.
Thanks for Reading!
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Footnotes and References
1 Wilson, Allen (pseudoevagrius). (February 16, 2020). “Introduction & Teaching Using ZettelKasten and Paskian Entailment Meshes.” Zettelkasten Forum. Retrieved from: http://forum.zettelkasten.de/discussion/comment/4211/#Comment_4211
