Alex Ferguson, right? Probably. In fact, definitely if measured by silverware. End of article.
But what about the current crop of managers? They haven’t had 21 seasons in the EPL so haven’t had a the opportunity to match Ferguson’s record. Are they on track to surpass him?
Also, what about managers who didn’t have the resources that Ferguson had? Were they relatively better managers? Is Sean Dyche keeping Burnley in the EPL a bigger achievement than winning the EPL 13 times? Probably not, but what do the numbers say?
Some notes
Before we get into numbers, it is important to call out the followings:
- Only EPL games are being considered. That is, no cups, no European competitions, and no games prior to the first EPL season (1992/93)… which was then called the Premiership.
- Accurate as of 24th March 2019
1 ) The simplest version: Average points per game
The most basic way to compare managers’ EPL performance is by number of trophies, but that‘s boring and obvious. Another very simple way is by the average points per game. The top 20 managers are below.
Note: This table only includes managers who have managed 38+ EPL games total. Special shout out to Kevin Bond, Mike Stowell, Pat Rice, Steve Holland who all maintain a 100% EPL record… with 2, 1, 3, and 1 games under their belts, respectively.
This table is relatively interesting:
- Only seven managers have an average of 2+ points per game.
- We are currently experiencing greatness with Josep Guardiola’s bonkers points average.
- Bobby Robson (#20) is the only entry not to have managed one of the Big Six (Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspurs).
- Kenny Dalglish is the only manager who has won the EPL not to make the top 20.
- Roy Evans is the highest place Englishman at #15.
And the ten managers with the worst points per game average:
2 ) Average points per game by appointment
Average points per game is across all of a manager’s appointments so if he started off at a poor club and worked his way up, the early appointments would bring his average down.
What if we just look at points per game by appointment? For example, Jose Mourinho has three EPL appointments: first Chelsea appointment, second Chelsea appointment, and Manchester United appointment.
Note: This table only includes managers who managed 38+ EPL games during the appointment in question.
This table is also interesting:
- Guardiola stays top.
- Mourinho, who takes second place in this version, is the only manager to have two or more entries (and did it at two different clubs).
- Kevin Keegan (#14) is the only manager to enter the top 20 with a non-Big Six team and is the highest place Englishman.
- Jurgen Klopp (#8) is the highest place manager not to have won the EPL.
And the bottom ten:
3 ) Performance relative to club quality by appointment
That second version still isn’t a fair assessment because a terrible manager could get a respectable average points-per-game at a massive club. Also, a manager could do a great job at a terrible club and just save them from relegation.
It sounds like we need to factor in the quality of the club. Here’s how I have approached this: I have compared every manager’s EPL average points-per-game at a club to the club’s average points-per-game when that manager was not managing the club.
For example, it’s Manchester United’s points-per-game with Alex Ferguson at the helm versus Manchester United’s points-per-game without Alex Ferguson. Again, in this version, it is done by appointment so, for example, Jose Mourinho’s two Chelsea appointments will be considered separate appointments.
Note: This table only includes managers who managed 38+ EPL games during the appointment in question.
For each row in this table, we’re saying that this manager got this many extra points-per-game on average than other managers of that club. So, Guardiola averages 0.888 more points-per-game than the the average of all other EPL games that Manchester City has played.
- Guardiola’s performance in this table (along with other high-flying Manchester City managers) is a function of (a) being good managers and (b) Manchester City being terrible in their early forays into the EPL.
- David Wagner’s appearance here might seem odd given his appearance in the bottom ten in the previous assessments. This is because Wagner’s successor has a terrible points-per-game average and it has been just the two of them who have managed Huddersfield in the EPL so the data is volatile.
- Alex Ferguson at #20 is a little concerning. It is because all of his successors have done quite well so his achievements in the EPL don’t stand out as much.
And the bottom ten:
Interesting because:
- The Big Six clubs make a few appearances here indicates that these were awful appointments or the club’s status has changed dramatically over time, e.g., Manchester City.
- Kevin Keegan makes an appearance in the top 20 and bottom 10.
- Manchester City appointments fill the top (#1) and bottom (#185) spots.
- David Moyes, even at a pretty consistently terrible club (Sunderland), somehow managed to make the bottom 10.
4 ) Performance relative to club quality across appointments
That 3rd version is good at commenting on appointments rather than managers. I’m interested in managers so I need to look at each manager’s performance across all of their EPL appointments.
Note: This table defines an appointment as a manager at a club for 38+ consecutive EPL games.
This is interesting because:
- Harry Redknapp (just outside this table at #21) maintained a high bar across a lot of appointments (in fact, he is the manager with most number of EPL appointments, using this definition).
- What the eff is Joe Kinnear doing in the top five?! It turns out he had a pretty good points-per-game average at Wimbledon and they went downhill pretty quickly after he left.
- Jose Mourinho doesn’t make the top 20 (he comes in a #28 out of 121).
- Chris Hughton at #85 is the lowest place manager currently managing in the EPL.
And the bottom ten:
5 ) Performance relative to club quality across multiple appointments
That fourth version is good, but I want to know about managers who have done well during multiple appointments. Who is a resilient manager who can perform in different situations?
Note: This defines an appointment as a manager at a club for 38+ consecutive EPL games.
Let’s start with the bottom ten for the sake of suspense.
Although a great (and very quotable) guy, 🍋 Graham Taylor 🍋 is the worst EPL manager ever.
And the top 10…
Yes, I am claiming that 🎉 Mauricio Pochettino 🎉 is the best EPL manager ever. Only time will tell if he can turn his points-per-game average versus his peers into trophies in the EPL.
Conclusion
There are obvious weaknesses to this approach, but I wanted to take a different and data-driven approach to the question at hand. It is very easy to use trophies as a measure, but they don’t show how good a manager is relative to the circumstances he is in.
This approach is quite dynamic; additional managers will qualify for consideration every year and points-per-game will go up and down. I’ll likely update this at the end of this season.
