A Simple Live Bitcoin Dashboard for trading on 200 Day Moving Average
What this dashboard does:
- Daily update on current bitcoin close price.
- Updates multiple Moving Average indicators, calculates relative prices ratios.
- Charts 200 day moving average, 90 day moving average, relative price and the exponential growth of relative price
- Creates a buy, sell or hold signal based on the calculated metrics.
The 200 day moving average is the current price divided by the average of the previous 200 day prices. This metric generally takes out the day to day news, noise and FUD to gain an accurate view of a longer trend. The relative price is dividing the current price by the 200 day moving average. The relative price is used to determine if the bitcoin price is cheap or expensive based on prior relative averages.
Currently the relative price is 2.06 which is 8% above the 200 day moving average. But looking at the middle chart, relative price is steadily increasing the past two years. This is most likely an indicator of stable long term growth which is reducing price volatility of the long term.
The price estimate is a 6 month indicator based on a weighted average of the the relative prices.
Three scenarios are used to determine the weight price:
- Price correction is a scenario calculated with the current relative price ratio to the average the past 90 and 200 days. As the relative price is above the historical averages, this is seen as a potential downside factor to the current price. This is weighted at overall at 40%.
- Moderate Growth takes the average growth the past 400 days and adds it to the current price. As this is a long term trend, this is given the most weight at 45%.
- Bull Run takes the average prior bull run relative price ratios and divides it by the current relative price ratio to gauge the long term potential upside. This is given a small weight 15%.
These scenarios are added to give the weighted price. If the weight price is above the current price, this is seen as a buy signal as the price is undervalued.
I derived information for this post and analysis from Trace Mayer (@TraceMayer) and his podcast: http://www.bitcoin.kn/2017/10/fake-news-27000-bitcoin/
Trace is a well known bitcoin entrepreneur, podcast host and in his own words ‘the Babe Ruth of Bitcoin Shills’. I’ve been following him for a while and recognize him as one of the best people to listen to for up to date and objective views of bitcoin.
Trace’s website: www.bitcoin.kn
Trace’s iTunes podcast: https://goo.gl/TcqDB5
Using this dashboard:
To use this excel for a weekly reference, download file from: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/s0stft4eigud27b/AADxOzbvRde0IUg03sHx1BeMa?dl=0
Make sure this is opened as a macro-enabled file.
For updating the price:
Click on the “Refresh All Prices” button.
All the charts will and metrics will be auto calculated. The only thing you need to do is to track the prices in the bottom right section to track your ROI.
Comment below for recommendations and questions!