Is Britain Doing Its Bit for Climate?
1 — Opening
On November 9th 2022 I was watching “BBC Question Time’’ in my Essex prison cell. A panel, including several of our law-makers, was debating whether it was right or wrong that in recent days and weeks many people had been climbing structures over the motorways to display banners saying “Just Stop Oil”. One question from the audience stuck with me, it was asked by a young man wearing tan chinos, a blue and white check shirt and a vest. I don’t know his name so I will refer to him as Jack. His question was something to this effect:
“In Britain we are doing our bit of climate. So why are these protestors glueing themselves to the motorways and causing chaos? It’s terrible! We’re sick of it!”
I think many people in Britain share the belief which is the premise to Jack’s question. I will examine that belief: are we in Britain doing our bit for climate? As I’m still stuck in an Essex prison cell because I climbed over one of those motorways, it seems an excellent use of my time to answer that question. However to answer it in the fullness which it requires I need to begin by sharing some memories of mine which shaped how I see the issue.
Let us begin drifting back to the year 1989 in Aoteroa/New Zealand when I was not quite seven years old. Two diminutive hunters were creeping along the edge of a gravel farm track, which curved across the downs, an open landscape of windy paddocks and wire fences. Their gumboots (wellingtons) kept the dewy grass at bay as they threaded between flax bushes and stalked closer and closer to their quarry, my mothers flock of geese picking peacefully at the grass. Pleased with our stealth, we exchanged a grin before Rhys, my friend, the ginger-headed and therefore more fiery of us, made a charge towards the prey.
Then everything went wrong. One mother goose didn’t understand our hunting game and reared up in a terrible hissing whirlwind to fly at Rhys. He stumbled backwards, pummelled by a flurry of wing beats, a horrible wind of sharp grey feathers bore down on him as he tripped into the flax bush to cower in a foetal position. That was a nasty way to discover that geese have a claw protruding from the wrist joint on each wing. In our scrambling escape, we dashed to the safety of the open paddock, our little legs pumping until the angry honking faded. The natural resting place was beneath the lonely, ancient totara tree which watched over the rolling sea of European rye grass. Thankfully there was enough space clear of sheep and goose shit to sit down amongst the roots. The breeze quickly dried Reece’s eyes and stopped his upper lip from quivering.
To politely distract myself, I poked about the trunk, picking at the furry stringy bark. Beneath that rusty covering I felt cast iron hardness, an immovable fluted column. That rigid defiance had allowed that Totara to survive for over a hundred years after the colonists cleared the downs of forests. What stayed the axe hands to leave that last tree with no kin for a mile around? Perhaps the new farmer was sentimental for a lone oak tree which he remembered from his native English pasture? While I was messing about poking things with sticks and bothering geese, my parents worked busily for eight years attempting to undo the damage of the previous century, by replanting half the farm with native forest.
Though I was oblivious at the time, from my earliest moments, I was witnessing the terrible damage which humans had done to the living world and how much work and time was required to heal it. Sadly giving things back to nature isn’t profitable, so my family sold up a number of years later and moved to town to work in the extractive rural economy. Drift on with me now to an Autumn morning in 1997.
2 — Remembering
On 25th April 1997 I arose early and put on a uniform which I had meticulously pressed the night before, until the creases in the blue serge wool could not become any sharper. I laced my black leather shoes which I could not polish any shinier and tied my tie in several attempts until the tip brushed the top of my belt buckle. Setting off on my mountain bike under an overcast sky I rode past six hushed suburban blocks to a small green at my town’s centre. Where a silent crowd was gathering around a lone concrete column on a wide plinth. I fell in with a rectangular formation of teenagers wearing the same uniform and wedge-shaped blue caps: each of us held a black dummy rifle like s staff in the right hand, butt beside the right foot.
When the eldest girl shouted a command, four of us shouldered arms in crisp choreographed movements and began a slow gliding march to a rhythm of step — glide — pause, step — glide — pause towards the column. After ascending the steps we peeled off one by one to take our positions at the four corners of the plinth. At the next command we raised our rifles towards the grey sky not as if to fire, but as you would hold a flag staff; then by a silent count we slowly lowered them in an arc until the barrels pointed into the earth and rested on the concrete. I laid my palms over my rifle butt, then bowed my head, assuming a stance only used on that one day of the year. We four remained motionless while the wreaths were laid and the remembrances read until the cornet blew the Last Post.
I rehearsed for days to take part in that ceremony because I felt I should do my small bit to remember the sacrifice of my grandfathers and great-grandmother’s generation who had done their bit to protect all the freedoms I enjoy. In their day, New Zealand and Britain, my mothers country, had come terrifyingly close to being ruled by violence, by an aggressor who would have ruled not by consent to preserve our public welfare but to suit the designs of a distant imperial power. I do not worship those ancestors of mine because they also did terrible things: denied Maori people their homeland and destroyed every ancient forest within reach. It is particularly touching that despite the betrayal many Maori people still answered the distress call and joined the hundreds of thousands of men and women who left my island to selflessly throw themselves into the breach. Many never came home to the Land of the Long White Cloud and many more returned maimed either physically or psychologically or both. As I enjoy my life in a far more gentle era, it seems the most basic respect I can give is to never forget that:
“…at the rising and the going down of the sun…
We shall remember them”
3 — What are we doing?
Returning to the present day and Jack’s question: are we in Britain doing our bit of climate? Clearly I think not but I don’t want to be in conflict with Jack and all those who share his belief. I want to come to a shared understanding with him because there is too much at risk and we will only begin to confront and control those grave risks once we have come to that shared understanding. We have to get there urgently because people are dying now.
There is one strand of his belief that I agree with: that “the climate” is a shared endeavour, shared with the rest of the world. That belief is implicit in his words “doing our bit”: there must be other “bits” which others are doing. One of those bits is undeniably ours and must be done by Britain to maintain trust and harmony with our global neighbours. There is another strand which I agree with: Britain is doing “a bit” for climate. We have almost stopped digging up coal, almost. We are shifting towards renewable electricity, the way we manage the countryside is improving, we are gradually switching to renewable-powered electric vehicles and slowly changing the way our buildings are heated and insulated. The operative words in those sentences are “slowly”, “gradually”, “improving”. Here my view diverges from his. There is a critical urgency which he is not recognising.
If the world’s shared endeavour was to build a wall to protect everyone from “the climate” then it would make sense for Britain to send a contingent of brick layers to steadily build up part of that wall. Some might argue that we should send more brick layers or fewer but like all public endeavours it will be finished when it is finished and that will have to do, such is life. Unfortunately the physical reality observed and crossed-checked by thousands of scientists is more akin to a coming biblical flood. If “the wall” is not built to full height everywhere before the biblical flood rises then it will protect no one; water will gush in wherever the wall is low and everyone will drown. Essentially Britain is doing “a bit” for climate but doing it too slowly to save most people. My analogue is true because it matches key facts about the world which scientists have observed. I have summarised these facts in references to where scientists have published them; you will find all this in an appendix to this story.
The biggest mistake is to focus on what we are doing; if we are to “fix” the climate then we must focus on what we must stop doing. There is no wall we can build to protect everyone from the biblical flood; we have to stop the rain. For centuries people in Britain have been very good at doing things; we need to become good at not doing things.
We can dispense with analogues because the physical reality is quite simple: we have to stop digging and pumping fossil fuels out of the ground — coal, oil and gas. When we burn all those fuels the invisible smoke (CO2) floats about in the atmosphere forever; it insulates the earth like a blanket, the heat radiates more slowly out into space. The Sun continues to beam in heat at the same rate; the blanket doesn’t stop sunshine. When heat comes in faster than it is going out the earth gets hotter. The earth is getting hotter because of the actions of people; we need to stop doing those actions. The critical question, in many ways, is: who are “we”? For the purpose of “fixing” the climate we are everyone who is burning fossil fuels or burning forests. It doesn’t matter who does the burning, or where, because within weeks the invisible smoke will have spread out around the world. All of us need to stop, everywhere. How quickly do we need to stop? That depends upon how much damage we want to do to our world; more burning is more heat is more damage and death. The scientists who study this have looked at several scenarios because they don’t know what humans will do in the future. In the scenario with the least damage and death, our fuel burning can release no more than 380 billion tonnes more invisible smoke over the rest of our lifetimes and our children’s lifetimes. Note that humans have already burned 2500 billion tonnes. 380 sounds like a lot, but if it is shared out equally to everyone in the world then it is 48 tonnes per person. It still sounds like a lot but at present each person in Britain burns around 6 tonnes per year, so 48 tonnes would be burned through in another 8 years. At this point we can pin down what “doing our bit” means in a single number, or rather “not doing our bit”. What share of the world’s allowance should Britain ask for over the next 80 years? How should we share this allowance among all the people of the world? This will be the definitive question of our time and requires a story to explain.
4 — Small World
Imagine a Small World home to 100 people; 1 of those people would live in Britain (actually 0.86 but we’ll round-up here with poetic licence). 18 would live in India, 3 in Pakistan and 2 in Bangladesh, making 23 on the whole South-Asian subcontinent. This tiny world is about the size of an English parish. This world faces the exact same climate crisis and needs to burn no more than 48 tonnes of CO2 per person on average, to have a chance of limiting the warming of its small globe to 1.5°C.
Imagine the people of Small World gathering in a circle to agree how the world’s allowance should be shared. The British person, let’s call him Jack, might arrive at the circle first because he’s built efficient roads, railways, and airports; he’s spent the last 200 years in a frenzy of doing, all powered by burning fuels. He has built lots of stuff, which makes his life safe, easier, and more comfortable. Some of the 23 might arrive a little later for the circle because they have built far less stuff per person and consequently many of them live lives which are more dangerous, harder work and less comfortable then Jack’s life. The upside is that the 23 have burnt far less fuel and contributed far less per person, to heating the world. However, in recent times the 23 have bought and made themselves all the tools to build lots of useful stuff, following the processes pioneered by the British. They have begun their own whirlwind of doing.
On seeing the 23 all take their seats in the circle, Jack would remember his history and feel a pang of guilt because for 170 years his ancestors violently coerced the 23 to hand over much of their wealth. He would remember the causes of the bengal famine of 1769/70. He would remember that while millions were starving on the Ganges plains, much of the produce of Bengal was being used in Britain to begin the world’s first whirlwind of doing. He would remember the causes of the second Bengal famine of 1943. He would remember the darkest well in Jalliwallah Bagh. He could never forget that in Britains darkest hour, many of the 23 still crossed the sea to come to his aid. After he’d taken her shirt she’d given him her coat also. Reflecting on all this pain and seeing the gentle eyes of today’s 23, Jack would feel an upwelling of gratitude for the grace of forgiveness. That all of Small World can come together to decide its future through dialogue is no small miracle; the debate begins with many reasons to be cheerful.
The Bolivian kicks off proceedings by proposing that the global allowance be set at 48 tonnes per person on average. Immediately the Australian baulks, suggesting that would be bad for business. Why not aim for something more sensible, say 90 tonnes? Murmurs of agreement are heard from a few people. The majority are silent and many stand to speak in turn. The Somalian states that global heating has already made their droughts more severe. Strains on water sources have already led to an increase in waterborne diseases, claiming the lives of many children. Droughts are also causing more famines; children are the first to die of hunger. Raising the allowance will kill more of our children. The Somalian ends with silence.
A Pakistani speaks. In the Indus valley we are already experiencing more intense extreme heat; it claims the lives of the most vulnerable, children and the elderly. The urban and the rural poor have nowhere to hide from this, no air conditioned refuge. Those who work in the fields for their livelihoods are doubly-punished; it becomes too hot to work outside, so they cannot harvest and the crops are scorched to death. There are also increasingly violent floods which sweep away many people’s livelihoods. I don’t know how much more our people can take. Raising the global allowance will kill more of our most vulnerable, destroy more of our homes and drive more of our poorest into starvation. Again silence follows.
A Gambian speaks. The CO2 filling our atmosphere is mixing into the sea. This is making the sea steadily more acidic each year. When the acidity reaches a tipping point the water will dissolve the shells of all shellfish, and the tiny plankton will also die. Plankton is the grass of the sea; when the grass dies, all other life starves. Many of our people live off the bounty of the sea when the sea dies, we die. Raising the allowance brings us to this tipping point, an apocalypse under the sea. The silence falls heavily.
An Amazonian speaks. We have carefully read all the observations of the scientists and they are consistent with the observations of our elders. They have felt these same changes. They have felt these same changes through their bare feet on our forest floor, smelt them on the winds, and seen them in the mists and vapours which rise from our valleys with the sun. From different perspectives both the scientists and our elders understand that our great mother is dying. We note the evolving view of the scientists; as they gather and process more and more evidence they predict greater and greater risk. We note that the scientists acknowledge great uncertainties in their predictions. They are coming to know what our people have known for ages: that we live within our great mother and that she is an entanglement of innumerable life processes; the depth of her complexity is unfathomable. How hard can we push her before she has a stroke? We cannot predict that. We cannot predict how grievous the damage will be if we raise the allowance.
The Bolivian speaks. We have heard the voices of 4 people who have done so little to cause the heating of our world. Those people will suffer the greatest loss if the allowance is raised. Who will now speak for raising the allowance?
The Australian is silent.
The Bolivian proclaims that the allowance is set at 48 tonnes. A round of requests begins; each person in turn states how much they need. In the first round Jack asks for 84 tonnes. The Australian asks for 90 tonnes, with some murmurs of disapproval. At the end of the round the Bolivian sums up all the requests. The average is well above 48 tonnes. The Bolivian reminds the circle of the need for frugality and begins a second round. Jack asks for 48 tonnes, adding that that’s the best he can do because he can’t change his way of life overnight. Many comparable countries make similar requests. The 23 of the subcontinent ask for 70 on average, adding that they need the extra to complete building basic infrastructure to protect them from the extremes of a worsening climate. The round finishes with an average of 60.
A North American suggests: why not settle for 60? It’s late in the day and although this deal isn’t perfect, it’s better than nothing, right? Murmurs of agreement ripple around the global north. Better for who? Asks the Bolivian. I can see it’s better for you, and all the other people who have already burned more than their fair share. I do not hold anyone responsible for the actions of their ancestors. I hold you responsible for the wealth you’ve inherited from them and what you choose to do with it now. That you ask to go on drawing more than your fair share, knowing it kills your neighbours is an insult to justice. We agreed to reach 48 and those who’ve inherited the most must sacrifice the most to get us there. This deal must be equitable for all otherwise there will be no deal. The Bolivian walks out followed by the 23 and then a general silent exodus. Jack exchanges glances with the french woman next to him: so I guess we come back in the morning to try again?
In the gathering dark Jack sets out to clear his head with a walk. Out beyond the glow of the meeting campfires he finds his way by the light of the moon. A path leads him through some woods to a pool overhung by willows. He settles on a long low bough to study the silver reflection, occasionally rippled by some invisible creature. A beatle buzzes in his ear, startling him from this reverie to shake his head and swat it away. As he turns he notices the shadow of a woman crouched willows by the trunk.
Oh, pardon me. I didn’t mean to intrude.
It’s ok. I was basically hiding, wasn’t I? Don’t leave on my account.
She stirs, steps into the moonlight and nestles at a polite distance on a rock at the water’s edge. Both resume the study of the reflection, until the plop of a toad breaks the long silence. They begin to discuss the tensions of the day.
Why were you crying? Jack dares to ask. He’d seen the shimmering of tears when she’d first stirred and had heard the quaver in her voice.
I have seen some terrible things, where I live in the Philippines. It was my neighbours; they used to be such a happy family, then there was the typhoon… It tore away half their house. The violence of that wind was terrifying, it felt like it would rip away everything on our island. Some sheets of roofing iron came hurling through as my neighbours were scrambling for safety. Their mother was struck horribly and the youngest boy was also in his leg. They told me there was nothing they could do but shelter in the wreckage with her, in the lashing rain and mud. She lost too much blood. All they could do was hold her. Once it was safe to go out the father carried the boy to the small local hospital, but nothing was working because of flooding. The few doctors and nurses who could make it to work were completely overwhelmed; there was so little they could do. Later his wound became infected and it was so difficult to travel through the wreckage to the better hospital in the city. By that time it was too late; his leg could not be saved.
The father and his daughter did their best to carry on, but I can always see the pain behind their eyes, they are traumatised. They’ll never recover fully, how could you? She was the beating heart of their home. So you see why I found today so difficult. At home we know that typhoon was more violent than any before; we heard it roar, we felt it tearing our homes apart. It’s horrifying to know that the storms will invariably become more violent, no matter what we do now. I genuinely fear for my whole way of life on our island. It beggars belief that anyone would effectively ask to turn up the violence on us even louder still. It is sickening to hear this proposed by people who are insulated from that violence. It tries my faith.
I hear you.
That is all Jack can say, and all that needs to be said. They return their concentration to the moon’s reflection and the shared silence communicates all the rest.
Bidding goodnight, Jack picks his way back towards camp. With too much on his mind he circles the periphery, until the glow of a low fire draws him in to sit and join a few of the night owls. A distinguished Iranian woman welcomes him, her long black and silver hair looks majestic in the firelight and her searching eyes weigh him up.
You look worried Jack?
Oh, well, it’s quite a pickle isn’t it. The deal and all…
All eyes return to the fire.
She speaks: a way will be found. In Iran we’ve been doing this civilisation thing for many thousands of years. We don’t intend to stop anytime soon. Have you heard about what the Finns and Swedes have done? They can turn raw iron ore into finished steel using nothing but electricity; they’ve tested it at an industrial scale. Steel forged by the wind, or by the sun. Amazing.
The Finn: You want amazing? We can also grow food from nothing but air and electricity, from the wind or any source.
The Iranian: so effectively you can eat the wind? Phenomenal.
The Korean chips in: then you’d love to hear about another innovation of ours.
A wispy bearded old sage from the eastern himalayas clears his throat: I see your bright-eyed busyness of doing, doing, doing. Before this fire goes out I also have a story for you. This is about the joys of not doing, the joy of being, especially being together.
The Iranian raises an eyebrow: looks like I’ll need to open another bottle…
The morning comes too quickly, and after too little sleep Jack finds himself back in the meeting circle. Looking around he sees the faces of people who will always be his neighbours, some smartly suited or frocked but many careworn by a life of labour. All of these people he has to live with. Every pair of eyes he meets tell him the same truth: you are my brother and I could not stand-by while you were in pain. It dawns on him that he could not stand by while any of his neighbours lives were in danger; he would do whatever he could to help any one of them, and so why wait until the last desperate moment? Why not do his utmost now?
In the third round all of Jack’s doubts fall away. I ask for 28 tonnes. That is the most frugal offer I can make without endangering the most vulnerable in my homeland. I see where I have to go, and although I do not know the way, not the details of the path, I know enough to be sure that a path can be found. The ingenuity, courage and wisdom which I have witnessed at this gathering, give me faith.
Hopeful murmurs ripple around the circle and similar requests follow from people sharing Jack’s advantages. The Bolivian triumphantly announces that the sum of requests squeaks in a hair below the global allowance. She gives closing words: solemn commitments have been made here. Now we dissolve this circle but every day counts; we will continue to hold our neighbours lives in our hands. Carry them as you would your own child. Go in peace.
Jack leaves his aeroplane on the grassy landing strip and decides to walk home instead. The distances are quite short in Small World so it won’t take long. Anyway he needs time to process everything which has happened. In the dusk his path leads into a stand of fir trees. Absorbed in his thoughts he continues through the gloom of denser and denser woods until he’s pushing through fir branches in near darkness. The texture of the firs changes, becomes softer and crowds to suffocate him. In a moment of panic he surges forward to tumble suddenly into the light. He looks around bewildered at the sparsely furnished old bedroom, airy with one large sash window, dead quiet. Picking himself up he glances behind at the wardrobe full of fur coats, shakes himself and immediately strides out. What am I doing in my great uncle’s old house where I used to spend those dreary rainy school holidays? Some hazy feeling of deja vu begins to emerge but he stamps on it as he quickly descends the stairs.
Out on a road, putting swift distance between himself and the unexplainable, the next move becomes clear. Reaching for his phone, he calls his mate: Dave, could you meet me at the pub?
Jack! Glad you’re back. Yeah, I’ve got time for a pint. Can’t wait to hear how it went! But hold on, I’m on a job, can’t talk now. Red Lion at 7?
Yeah, sure, 7 is fine, see you then.
The line went dead. “Glad you’re back”? “How what went”? How did he know I was gone? Jack’s thoughts whirled as he meandered to the Lion.
5 — Going Forth
Waiting at their usual standing table, Jack has two pints freshly poured when his friend steps into the pub to greet him loudly:
Evening squire! You know we all saw you on telly. I couldn’t believe it when I saw it was you.
Jack’s whirl of confusing thoughts spins faster, dizzying him.
Me? On telly? Saw me where?
At the world summit! You sly dog. Don’t play dumb. I know you must have a few secret friends in high places to get picked as our national rep. I know it was supposed to be a lottery, but I won’t ask your secrets, you dark horse you! Anyway, what on earth have you signed us up to?!
Jack pauses dead still, staring into the distant pub garden through the room of oblivious patrons. His field of view both broadens and deepens until he is outside of himself; it grows slowly at first encompassing the whole room, then quickens to envelop the recent hours events, then days, becoming an accelerating avalanche of images, voices, thoughts, faces and emotions expanding in a many-dimensional collage without limit, until everything stops.
The dizzying buzz falls silent. In the stillness he sees what he has to do.
Jack? Jack? You there? Everyone at work is a bit concerned about what you signed us up to.
Jack refocusses on his friend with a new poise and looks reassuringly into his eyes.
I committed us to what is necessary to keep our neighbours alive.
Avoiding the gaze Dave continues: Yeah, that’s all well and good, but at my work each of us has to drive around with several hundred kilograms of tools to do our jobs. We can’t all afford electric vans. We can’t change our whole way of life overnight!
Dave, you are beginning with yourself. There are a lot of people in the world whose lives are in danger. If your life, or your daughters life or your nans life were in danger then what would you want your neighbours top priority to be: their business or your life?
My life.
Now remember when COVID threatened our neighbours lives, the old man next door, your nan in the nursing home, your young niece with bad asthma. What was our top priority: protecting their lives or continuing our businesses?
Protecting their lives.
Yes, and we changed our way of life overnight to keep them alive, right?
Yep. Dave stares thoughtfully into his pint.
So what’s the difference with all the distant neighbours you’ve never met? Because they live on the other side of the world would their families grieve any less for their loss than you would for your niece?
No, there shouldn’t be any difference. OK, fair enough, I see that we can change our whole way of life over night when we decide it necessary to save a lot of lives. I guess I never thought about it that way.
After a few minutes contemplative sipping Dave resumed: I’m just thinking practically here. With so many people struggling with the cost of living at the moment how can most people possibly deal with these huge upheavals? Lots of people are struggling to put food on the table.
Firstly, Dave, there is struggling and there is struggling. Small farmers all over many parts of Africa, Asia, and south and central America are facing starvation because of droughts or floods or intense heat ruining their crops. All of that has become more severe because of what we are doing to the climate. We certainly have problems in Britain but they are distribution problems. What did your brother do for all the months he was furloughed from the office during COVID?
He delivered meals from that Sikh charity kitchen.
And who did he deliver them to?
Anyone who requested them really.
So when we decided it was necessary that everyone was fed, then suddenly we found we could do it. Lots of people who’s normal work could be postponed were deployed to feed anyone in need. And it wasn’t only feeding people, we were suddenly caring for our neighbours in other ways, remember?
Yeah, I did all those shifts on the phone organising prescriptions to be collected and delivered to vulnerable people.
Exactly! We suddenly found we could give all our neighbours the basic care they needed. So what has changed? Is there any reason we can’t do it again now?
I guess not. Actually, it was really nice having more time and seeing everyone helping each other. I know it was awful for those who got sick or lost loved ones or worked in hospitals but honestly, I miss that time now that you mention it.
Yes! You’ve put your finger on it there. When we all confront a crisis together we discover that our neighbours will give us what we need and we’ll give our neighbours what they need. Everyone feels less isolated, less lonely, safer, more secure and ultimately happier.
Cheers to that Jack! They clink and savour a draught.
And Dave, remember that the cost of living has blown up recently because of a surge in the cost of fossil fuels. If we were drawing all our energy from the wind, the sun and the sea then we would have to use less but the prices would be stable. People wouldn’t be driven into poverty by their energy bills, especially if we got busy insulating homes. Installing insulation is really another kind of care work, one that even the blokiest blokes can get into. There’s something for everyone if you look.
But China?
Wait a minute Jack, what’s the use of us bending over backwards to stop Britain’s emissions if in China they are pumping out 10 times more?
Dave, what we do here in Britain is on our conscience. What people do in China is on their conscience. If one hundred people all lay one punch on a man and he dies, then all of those people are guilty of murder. People are dying as a result of our actions Dave. Never forget that. Besides, historically, British people have emitted more per person; we’ve done more damage than the people of China.
I hear you, but I’m still worried.
Do you think the Chinese love their children any less than we do?
No.
Right, and do you know what “wet-bulb 35” means?
No, educate me.
It’s an air temperature of 35°C with 100% humidity, or say 45°C with 50% humidity. The point is that under these conditions or hotter humans cannot survive, not even resting in the shade. Our bodies constantly generate heat, even when sleeping; we need to shed that heat to keep our internal temperature between 36–37°C. If it’s hot we do that by sweating, however, if it is too hot and too humid then sweating no longer helps. Your body sweats and sweats but you continue to get hotter; your body poaches itself or dries out entirely. You die within a few hours.
Uugh! Nightmare. But what’s this got to do with China?
The central valley of north-east china is one of the world’s most densely populated regions which will soon be at risk of wet bulb 35 conditions.
Oh, I see. Scarry.
Do you know what gives me faith? I remember that the Chinese have maintained a sophisticated civilization for 4000 years, through all sorts of crises and upheavals. Do you know what British people were doing 4000 years ago?
Haha, running about in the mud, wearing nothing but blue paint?
To be fair, I’m not sure we’d invented the blue paint at that point, but something like that.
Growth
The trouble is, Jack, we need growth. Without growth how will our young people find jobs and a livelihood?
Well Dave, looking at the long view of human history, a thousand years ago we were ruled by small kings who ruled over small muddy kingdoms with the sword. In those times we believed that the only way to grow our society was to march out and kill our neighbours with our own hands and seize their farms.We believed that because from one generation to the next as far back as our grandfathers could remember each farm has always yielded about the same harvest in every decent year. We believed that the only way to grow in wealth was to control more farms and force people to farm them for you. Now we can see that was a failure of imagination. By using the resources of Britain far more creatively we’ve achieved a standard of comfort for your average council tenant that a king of 1000 AD would envy. We also used to believe that Kings inherited a divine right to rule us and that slavery was just. Humans have suffered long under many limiting beliefs which now appear absurd or grotesque. What makes you think that this moment in history is uniquely free from any similar delusions. I’m sure in the distant future people will look back at some of our beliefs with dismay.
Back to the point: are you suggesting that again our only path for growth requires killing our neighbours, only now with greenhouse gases rather than swords and spears?
Hmmm, when you put it that way no. That’s bollocks.
Exactly, this is just another failure of imagination. We can and must find other directions to grow in, directions which do not kill our neighbours. First we need to carefully examine what we want to grow. What we truly want is growth in happiness, growth in care, growth in leisure time, growth in comfort like warm homes, growth in community, literal growth in nature, all over these isles. If you take a look into any process that meets one of our needs: like farming to provide us with food, then you’ll find a plethora of beautiful solutions to meet our needs without killing our neighbours. In that I include people vulnerable to global warming and all our non-human neighbours who share these isles with us. The innovations which I learned about at the meeting fire dazzled me. There’s no lack of beautiful solutions, we only need to shed the scales from our eyes — shed our limiting beliefs which hold back our growth.
There are some difficult decisions to be made. One is the transport problem: it is not possible to replace all our cars and trucks with electric substitutes. To do that all over the world would drive us to strip-mine the world. Instead of killing our neighbours with gasses we would kill their land with bulldozers and poisoned tailing dams. We will need to decide what transport we need the most and prioritise that. To make difficult decisions like that will need an upgraded form of democracy. The best bet seems to be citizens assemblies, around a hundred people randomly selected, like a jury, who deliberate for months in a facilitated process to make these big decisions. When you give people responsibility and trust them they tend to come up with wise decisions which everyone can live with. It’s especially helpful that they’re not performing in a popularity contest to get re-elected.
Steady on Jack, this is getting a bit political for me. Can we get back to some solid safe topic involving some numbers please?
Sure Dave, which one?
What worries me, is how on earth do we keep everyone fed, watered and warm in winter with only the 28 tonnes of CO2 which you promised? I mean what if we struggled to run the hospitals?
Dave, remember that this is an existential threat. You know why there was a war in Syria?
Not really.
Neither do I really, not full. However I do know that there was a particularly terrible drought over the 10 years preceding the war. Under conditions of scarcity the worst of human nature often comes out. If much larger regions of the world suffer extreme climate damage then much larger conflicts could ignite. And forbid this happens involving any nuclear-armed maniacs. If any part of the world breaks down in such a conflict it will affect everyone everywhere. So we must have security for all or no one is secure. So you see it is a matter of life and death for ourselves to find a way to fulfil our commitments. If notable industrialised nations such as Britain are seen to be flouting our solemn commitments then the agreement could break down into a destructive free for all. This is an existential threat for Britain.
Do you know what happened at Bletchley Park?
Is that where they filmed Downton Abbey?
No Dave. The last time Britain faced an existential threat, one of the ingenious solutions to neutralise that was developed at Bletchley Park. The threat was a Nazi invasion. For centuries Britain has been a safe-haven for a thriving Jewish culture so you can see how dire the stakes were. The achilles heel of the Nazi military was an encryption system known as “Enigma”. This encryption system allowed the nazis’ to broadcast messages by radio knowing that only their troops would be able to decode them. Cut a long story short: a group of Britain’s most brilliant code breakers and mathematicians were brought to Bletchley Park to figure out how to decode Enigma. One of them, Alan Turing, designed the first computer because he needed it to solve the problem at hand. Interestingly the concept of the computer was dreamed-up in the nineteenth century by another British genius, Ada Lovelace, but at the time the technology didn’t exist for her to build one. Turing’s computer did work: Enigma was cracked; so the Nazi military was foiled and in 2023 a beautiful Jewish culture is an inseparable part of Britain, along with so many cultures from all over the world.
Whenever any challenge appears overwhelming or fiendishly complex just remember Bletchley Park. When survival is on the line we can, and must, apply our best people to it, set them on a campus to live and breathe the challenge and give them whatever resources they need to find the solutions. We need several of these campuses, each focussed on a different problem. Remember that in 1939 there were no computers; Turing invested one out of desperate need. What will today’s Turings and Lovelace’s dream-up in the 21st-century’s Bletchley Parks? We can only imagine. Now imagine how much wider our talent pool is compared to the stuffy class-conscious 1940s, and how far our technological limits have expanded. Many of their solutions will not be “hard tech” but processes to reintegrate humanity with the web of life drawing upon indigenous wisdom. Some solutions will work in our minds and our greater social mind, where ultimately our self-destructive problems are rooted. Much of this will not be proclaimed from an ivory tower, but allowed to emerge from the wisdom of our communities. Take faith in the knowledge that we are not descended from fearful men, or women. Our ancestors have survived uninterrupted for a billion years; they did not survive for you to give up now. There is a positive feedback loop which protects us, a shield which strengthens when the pressure increases: as dangers become greater more and more of us are driven to acts of courage, invention and compassion.
Whoah! Jack, ease up, ease up. I get the picture.
Haha, I do run away with myself sometimes. But seriously Dave, what I’ve described is what it would look like for Britain to do its bit for the climate. We possess advantages and sophisticated institutions which few people share: science, law, universities, artists, infrastructure, security, cities where people from all corners of the earth cooperate. As Blake foretold we really have built Jerusalem, one of several around the world. Some things can only be created in a Jerusalem; we owe it to the world to make those things urgently and give them away without delay. Now the game is survival and we are going to apply everything, everywhere, all at once.
Have you got time for another pint first?
Yeah, go on…
6 — What is our government actually doing?
I’ll leave Jack and return to the cold light of reality. Although I suspect Jack would make better choices than our present government. Our government has a plan to do ‘a bit’ for climate; the plan is to stop the burning of fuels in the UK by 2050. However the first fatal flaw is the lack of any plan to stop fuels being dug up in the UK and sold overseas where they will necessarily be burnt. Why is the government leaving that door open? There is a substantial amount of recoverable oil and gas remaining in the UK, enough to generate from 100 to 280 tonnes of CO2 for each and every person in the UK. Consider who profits. Consider that when I climbed the QE2 Bridge the Prime Minister was a former Shell employee and our government took significant party donations from oil companies. But let’s park that problem for now and examine the consequences of our government’s Net Zero 2050 plan. It will result in the UK burning another 84 tons of CO2 per person. Remember that Jack had to lower his request to 28 tonnes to keep the peace with his neighbours. The 2050 plan is continuing to inflict a violence on people for another 28 years. That violence will strike the bodies of people in the form of roofing iron hurled by a typhoon, or a cholera microbe entering a child’s intestine in a mouthful of water from a drought-stricken river. That violence will strike people’s homelands as scorching heat beating down on withering crops, torrents of water ripping away homes and livelihoods and hairdryer winds desiccating ancient forests so that the smallest spark leads to surging waves of wildfire. Jack could never front up to his parish neighbours and ask them to suffer more of this deadly violence for his convenience. Why should we behave any differently to the 8 billion neighbours who we’ve mostly never met? The difference in our government’s approach is that they are not asking plainly for the consent of our neighbours, for if they did they certainly would not get it. No-one can consent to their people’s destruction. Nor is our government laying in plain terms before British people about what the stark choices are and what the horrific consequences of their 2050 plans are. If this was made plain then the common decency of your average person would baulk and demand we treat our neighbours better. This truth was demonstrated when our government and media resolved to tell the public about the dire threat of killing our neighbours with COVID. Everyone did their bit to keep each other safe and many people devoured screeds of information on the virus threat so that they could better achieve the overall goal: keeping our neighbours alive.
There is a despicable veil of deception cast over the climate threat to dress up mass killing as sensible pragmatic government. Showers of meaningless numbers out of context are sprinkled on the public to cool concerns with droplets of confusion. Disorientating relative statements are made with no grounding reference to the true proportions of things in the big picture. Our present contrivance of human affairs, the way we live now in the UK, is held to be a natural order and any departures from that ’natural order’ receive withering scrutiny. In a more compassionate world the physical conditions necessary for our web of life would be held as the Natural order and any departure from those physical limits would receive the withering scrutiny. Physical limits cannot be negotiated with, no matter how brilliant your communication advisors are; just ask the vulnerable people of this world who are now being crushed up against those hard limits.
Our government stoops to straight-out lying when they proclaim their 2050 plan as ‘world-leading ambition’. 130 nations now have lower CO2 emissions per person than Britain. What exactly are we leading the world in? If your neighbour were doing some action which was steadily killing your family, then when he announces he will continue killing for ‘only’ another 28 years, would you applaud his ‘world-leading ambition’? No but you might punch him. 200 hundred years ago British inventors didn’t have an ambition to kill enslaved people more slowly with back-breaking labour; they had an ambition to unleash energy buried under the earth to free everyone everywhere from back-breaking labour. That was ‘world-leading ambition’. Shame it had wicked side effects but it did move us to a new place where we can imagine more beautiful things.
It turns out the present government’s 2050 plan is itself a lie. They show little intention of following through on their promises, unambitious as they are. The High Court found this in a ruling last July; an MP in this very government, Chris Skidmore, found the same in January. Lying about grave matters of public safety has become a hallmark of this government, along with the red wine and vomit stains on the wall. The most damaging lie is the denial of Britain’s climate debt; it cannot be mentioned because the implications are too damning. The 2050 plan drags Britain deeper into the red for another 28 years. To ask other people to pay for your debts with their lives is abhorrent. To force them to pay by deception is evil.
To think that somehow the people traumatised by this are unaware of what is happening is terrifying arrogance. A few years ago I was in Hyderabad, India, and discussed this issue with a taxi driver who replied: “Everyone here is thinking about this, but no-one is doing.” What people in Britain are doing now will be seen and judged by our neighbours as history. I am a student of history and I see parallels with the ill-fated Treaty of Versailles. In 1919 an international agreement was made there. The stronger parties to that negotiation used their strong position to impose punitive terms on the weaker parties. In hindsight many historians observe that this led to a terrible build-up of grievance in the weaker parties; within a few decades this exploded into the worst catastrophe of violence which humans have ever inflicted on each other. After the dust had settled from that explosion the stronger parties took the opposite approach to Versailles and showed open-handed generosity to the people whose homelands had been devastated.
How are today’s international climate treaties different to Versailles? Are not some parties taking advantage of their strong position to impose punitive terms on others? Now the strong positions are gained by control of the global financial system, control of everyone’s debt, as much as by dangerous military arsenals. Today’s terms are far more punitive than 1918; at least the guns fell silent on 11th November 1918. Under today’s terms, which Britain has drafted for itself unilaterally, deadly material will be cast into the skies for another 28 years; it is certain to fall as violence from the sky on the world’s most vulnerable people. The terms will force hundreds or thousands of millions of people to leave their homeland or succumb to starvation or disease or unbearable heat.
Consider the UN’s definition of genocide:
‘A crime committed with the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part.’
And consider the International Court’s definition of intent, in the Rome statute 30.2:
‘A person has intent where, in relation to a consequence, that person is aware that it will occur in the ordinary course of events.’
Ask yourself how is our government’s 2050 plan not genocide? How is raining violence from the sky onto entire homelands not the supreme crime of aggression? When survival is threatened conflict becomes inevitable. Gary Linekar has seen the ominous writing forming on the wall. To enable genocide, the Other must first be dehumanised by demonising rhetoric. The White Cliffs become the moat and wall separating the chosen people from the ghetto.
I recall that many testimonies of old soldiers share one common refrain: their greatest hope is that future leaders do everything possible to avoid the causes of war so no-one else ever has to suffer the horrors which they suffered. I think of the quiet old souls who shuffled out on my town’s green in their mismatched suits and berets to hear the remembrances read and the cornet blow the last post. It is a small mercy that they are no longer around to see what our present government has done with the freedom bought dearly by those who ‘age shall not weary them… nor the years condemn.’ I was listening very carefully as a small boy standing in the crowd with my father and as an awkward teenager doing my best statue impression on the plinth. I remember that I’ve been given miraculous freedoms and opportunities by generations of ancestors who struggled and sacrificed for me. I know that my liberty loses all its value if I become complicit in the supreme crimes of genocide and aggression. I know there will come a time when we can no longer hide from the things we’ve done. So I have attempted everything possible to prevent those crimes. It has cost me my liberty, for a time, but the hardship is not a patch on what many of my ancestors survived. I am one of those fortunate sons.
The words of Rabbi Jeffrey Newman have given me guidance (emeritus Rabbi of Finchley Reform Synagogue):
“Jews knew only too well the role of the ‘by-stander’ — those who recognise what is going on but do nothing. That led to genocide. What can we do now as we hasten whole peoples and species, towards destruction? Collaborate, support, network, come and work together with those courageous souls who cry out against the multitudes (governments, courts, finance, water and energy companies, media).
‘Cease to do evil… learn to do good.’ Isaiah 1:16–17”
7 — Imagine
This story is a series of challenges to the British imagination. Much of this story is dominated by the male voice because I have written it as a challenge to British men. The lion’s share of the responsibility for climate and ecological breakdown lies with men, with patriarchy. It’s our mess, but everyone will have to sacrifice to clean it up, men especially so. I write this challenge to British masculinity because more often it is men who are the loudest voices perpetuating, essentially, climate violence. Masculinity has long been addicted to violence. I wonder: in a society which has steadily been becoming more gentle, is climate violence a way to cling on to this addiction? For whatever reason, it is mostly men who stand in the doorway and block up the hall just as we urgently need to pass through to compassionate transformation.
If British masculinity were a Game of Thrones character he would be Jamie Lannister. Born in a strong place he has advantages which few men possess. However he has used his power cruelly; led by vanity he has inflicted pain on many people. Through a dark night of the soul he suffers but emerges. The love of an earnest woman allows him to believe that he is worthy of redemption. Though his suffering has diminished him and he is no longer feared as a power in the world, he does not wait behind his walls and moat when a terrible evil threatens to devour everything. He goes forth, slays a dragon and hurls all of his remaining strength and skill into the breach at the last desperate defence of all life.
The telling of his story is beautiful because we see his cruel callous deeds yet we come to love his character and will him towards his redemption. His arc is a perfect illustration of the line between good and evil running through the landscape of every human heart (thanks Joanna Macy).
What does Jamie’s arc tell us about the path of British masculinity in the 21st century? Firstly, despite whatever harms we’ve caused, the world’s feminine still loves us and wills us towards redemption. Secondly, the only safe path is to go forth. Standing guard behind a moat and walls will not protect us, no matter what fearsome weapons we hold. An evil is coming which will devour the world. Only by going forth in alliance with others can we stop that evil before it passes a tipping point. There’s no time to be scared. What does going forth mean in 2023? It means leaving our comfort zones and doing what is necessary to prevent evil from engulfing us. Digging-in behind our moat and violently turning away desperate people who seek to share our sanctuary will never end well, no walls will ever be strong enough. Going forth means to grapple with the urgent transformations which are necessary for everyone’s survival. That means finding and implementing the solutions which will meet all of our needs in harmony with the rest of life. It means going forth alone, into the unknown, though the quest may seem almost beyond hope, remember Jamie’s lone figure riding north through the ominously thickening snow. It means having faith that your allies will meet you there, when they are needed at the fated moment and place, that everyone will do their bit in that last defence of life. England expects every man to do his duty; in 2023 that is to be an obedient servant of the divine feminine for she better intuits the path out of this mess (Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland also nod).
Much of this story has been over-saturated with nation-state identities. That has been a lazy short-hand to quickly tell a story involving diverse peoples of the earth. I’ve written this story as a challenge to the peoples of Britain because in an emergency we must make best use of the tools which we have at hand: the nation-state is a tool; it is a frame which allows a large group of people to push together. However, even before I was born a prophet asked us to ‘imagine there’s no countries’. It’s not been easy, though we have tried. In the great arc of human history we are walking through the last days of nation-states. The nation will soon be a tool that has outlived its usefulness. Although like old red phone booths, we’ll keep them around because we are sentimental and we love them, but for practical purposes we’ll use far better new tools. We will become world-people or we will all die, fizz, end of arc, do not pass Go, do not collect $200. Britain has one more act and that is to mobilise itself in defence of life, to go once more into the breach, to dig for victory, a victory of Life over mass-death and for many people it will mean literally digging. This requires again reviving the spirit of the Blitz because again a terrible violence is falling from the sky, only this time we only have ourselves to blame. This time it is a challenge of care and providing, not the violence of history. If national character can spur communal effort to give more then the nation-tool must be set to work. The new power is the power to give, for only by giving every aid to those most vulnerable will we find our own salvation.
We now find ourselves in a bewildering place where all the old familiar stories seem to peter-out. Left naked, alone, and without guidance staring at the accelerating climate and ecological apocalypse we do not know how to respond together. It is instructive to observe how people in Ukraine respond to a different type of threat. Everyone in Ukraine immediately understands how they can, and must, do their bit for the common good. They are no different to you or I, just as fearful, kind, annoying or funny, I’m sure. However they now understand that they are Overcoming the Monster, for that story has been endlessly retold down the ages. Our apocalypse cannot be pinned down in any one of the seven archetypal stories. The Tragedy is most evident and at times the hubris of our self-destruction becomes the darkest gallows Comedy. There is a Quest: to go forth into the unknown and find the keys to our salvation. We are on a Voyage and Return, having followed our violent and dominating impulses on a restless exploration we have suffered and learned a lot, now we must find our way home, because everything we’ve been looking for was there all along. Discovering that will be the Rebirth. The thorniest challenge is Overcoming the Monster because that monster is inside each of us. So many people in the world are complicit in the harm, I certainly am.
With all these story threads whizzing around each other it becomes a buzzing tangled noise and forces many of us to shut out that noise, numb ourselves and dissociate. Mental self-preservation is an understandable response. I’ve written these seven chapters to show how familiar stories can lead us through this. My final challenge to you is to imagine how beautifully all this could play out, because if in 2023 you have the leisure to read to the end of this story then you are privileged and therefore have a responsibility. To go forth is terrifying for you cannot imagine the Elysian Fields without seeing into the pits of Hell, without seeing how horribly far we have to fall. That is why we have been sent prophets, to give us the courage to go forth, grounded in the faith that the place we seek exists. John Lennon waited until he knew everyone was listening before he asked all of us to imagine, because that was his most important message. Now it’s a matter of life and death. In this story, I’ve been stepping through what it means, in an era of climate breakdown, to ‘do unto others as you would have them do unto you’ — what it means to ‘love thy neighbour’.
I’m having a hard time loving my neighbours who make plans for genocide. When I see the gravest crime in progress, I have to name it. I could not turn my other cheek to that. However, Jamie reminds me that the line between good and evil runs through the landscape of every human heart and I know it runs through mine also; I could not cast the first stone. Soon I will be asking forgiveness from who missed funerals because I was hanging above a bridge. I don’t know if I will be forgiven but what I have seen in prison reminds me that the world yearns to embrace each of us in the warm grace of forgiveness if, and only if, we go forth to seek redemption.
Another prophet, Rumi from Iran, spelled out where this grace is to be found (as I remember his words):
“Out beyond ideas of wrongdoing and rightdoing
there is a field. I’ll meet you there”
If any ministers of this government are listening, then I hope someday you’ll join us.
Appendix A — Key Oil and Gas Numbers
The following key numbers put the UK’s oil and gas resources in context with the world’s remaining carbon budget. First the emissions are presented on a per person basis to make them comprehensible. The population of the UK has been taken as 67.5 million and the world as 7880 million. Secondly the lump sum emissions are presented for the UK and the world.
If the world’s average temperature is to be brought back to +1.5oC by the end of the century, then the remaining carbon budget is 48 tonnes of CO2e for each and every person on earth on average. Considering history, the fair share for people in the UK must be considerably less than 48 tonnes. This is our budget for the rest of the century.
Burning all present reserves in licensed fields in the UK’s North Sea would emit 28 tonnes of CO2e for each person in the UK. That is the mean estimate; it is uncertain how much can be extracted from deep beneath the sea and the rock. The likely range is [19 to 34] with 80% confidence.
Burning all the contingent resources in the unlicensed fields next in line would emit an additional 46 tonnes [27 to 76].
Burning all the prospective resources in the rest of the North Sea would emit a further 108 tonnes [58 to 170].
Burning everything economically recoverable in the North Sea would emit 182 tonnes CO2e [104–280]. This would be the end result of following the present government’s policy of Maximum Economic Recovery, which is laid down in law in the Oil and Gas Authority strategy (OGA). This strategy was presented to parliament in 2020 pursuant to section 9(g) of the Petroleum Act 1998. Interestingly the OGA strategy also requires licence holders to “consider their social licence to operate”.
In November 2022, the Carbon Project11 published a remaining carbon budget of 380 billion tonnes CO2e for a global temperature rise of 1.5oC with 50% likelihood. The Carbon Projects number has been used because it is more recent than the most recent IPCC 6th Assessment report.
The following numbers have been used from the North Sea Transition Authority’s report for 202112. The numbers are for the end of 2021. Note that the UK also has some on-shore gas extraction and a few active coal mines but the quantities are negligible compared to the North Sea.
Barrels of oil equivalent, billions, remaining under the north sea
Reserves 4.0 [2.7 to 4.8]
Contingent resources 6.4 [3.8 to 10.6]
Prospective resources and plays 15.2 [8.1 to 24]
The mean estimate is given and the values in square brackets give the 80% confidence interval.
Carbon emissions from extraction and end use, billions of tonnes CO2e
Reserves 1.9 [1.3 to 2.3]
Contingent resources 3.1 [1.8 to 5.1]
Prospective resources and plays 7.3 [3.9 to 11.5]
Everything 12.3 [7.0 to 18.9]
Reserves and contingent resources are approximately 70% oil and 30% gas. The same proportions were assumed for the prospective resources.
The assumed emissions per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) are 0.505 t CO2e / boe for oil and 0.43 t CO2e / boe for gas. These intensities were published by the global registry of fossil fuels13 and include extraction process emissions which are specific to the UK industry. Extraction process emissions were taken as 0.09 t CO2e / boe for oil and 0.10 t CO2e / boe for gas with methane emissions factored for equivalent global warming potential over a 100 year period (GWP100).
Appendix B
In this appendix I’ve summarised, the UK governments plan for emissions over the next three decades, and the present indications that reality is lagging behind the aspiration. This plan dangerously exceeds the UK’s fair share of the remaining global carbon budget according to a study considering historical emissions, population and principles of international law. Finally, I discuss the question: who is responsible for fossil fuel harm, those who dig them up or those who burn them? The UK needs to stop digging up new oil as well as stop burning it. The governments plans do not stop the digging up and this flaw is fatal, literally, from a global perspective.
Through the Climate Change Act, the UK government has committed to reduce emission to net zero by 2050. A series of stepping stones towards this target have also been set. This plan would result in emissions totalling approximately 5700 million tonnes CO2e (Mtn CO2e) over the next 28 years. That is on average 84 tonnes for each person in the UK.
There are several signs that this plan is not being followed and UK emissions may continue at higher levels. One is a high court ruling in July 2022 which found that the governments Net Zero strategy would not meet the stepping stones set in the climate change act.14 The second is the Skidmore Review conducted by a former energy minister and sitting government MP.15 In January 2023 his key conclusion was “the review has seen persuasive evidence of the UK not matching world-leading ambition with world-leading delivery”. Is it a “world leading ambition” for a nation with very high historical emissions per person to plan to continue making those deadly emissions for another three decades? Recall that to have a chance of limiting global warming requires emissions of less than 48t per person on average, and still in that scenario we will see an increase in climate-related death and destruction over our lifetimes. The UK government is planning for almost double that, 84 tonnes and in reality exceeding its own plan.
Several studies have considered how to fairly share the worlds small remaining carbon budget, considering the historical emissions, the population of each nation and principles of international law.16 For any scenarios consistent with global warming of 1.8C or less the UKs fair share of the remaining budget is negative. The UK has no remaining carbon budget. The UK has overdrawn and owes a debt to nations such as Pakistan and India where far less fossil fuel has been burnt per person. Such nations still have a fair share of emissions to burn though and need them to build the infrastructure and tools which make life secure, sanitary and free from back-breaking labour. The UK governments plan is to carry on increasing this overdraft deeper into the red for another three decades. The interest payments will fall as death and destruction on people mostly living outside the UK, mostly in nations which bear the least historical responsibility. To ask other people to pay your debts with their lives is abhorrent; to force them to do so without asking is evil.
Questions of Responsibility
The UK Government’s plan seeks to reduce and eventually eliminate the emissions from burning fossil fuels in the UK. By this logic, the amount of fossil fuel dug up in the UK is irrelevant; if it is sold overseas then it is someone else’s problem. However, the world as a whole possesses fossil fuels in the ground which could fatally overheat the planet many times over if all were dug up and burnt. The vast majority of those fuels must be kept in the ground otherwise the death and destruction will be very much our problem, everyone’s problem.
If a wealthy nation such as the UK cannot keep its fuels in the ground then how can we ask the people of Ecuador or Nigeria to do that when many of those people have so little wealth? Fairness dictates that those who have gained the most from the fossil fuel system must be first and fastest to dismantle it. Any agreement to control and mitigate the inevitably increasing harms of the climate crisis must be global — must include everyone — and therefore must be fair to everyone to secure everyone’s voluntary commitment. To have any hope of confronting the climate crisis in solidarity with the rest of the world the UK needs to stop profiting from that crisis — to stop drilling for more oil and gas now. Only a tiny wealthy minority within the UK are actually reaping that profit while the majority are struggling to pay overwhelming fossil fuel bills. The first steps of the path through this crisis, could not be more clear, as they benefit nearly all people on all sides. That our present government is so reluctant to take those steps shows who they are responsible to.
Notes on UK Carbon Budgets
The UK Governments plan to reach Net Zero emissions by 2050 has several stepping stones known as carbon budgets.17 Each budget covers a 5 year period. The budgets from the 12 years from 2038 to 2050 are not yet set by parliament. It has been assumed that the emissions steadily reduce from 193 MtCO2e/year in 2038 to zero in 2050. 193 is the average annual rate in the 6th carbon budget. This gives the sum of 5700 MtCO2e for the next three decades.
4th Carbon budget (2023–2027) 1950 MtCO2e
5th Carbon budget (2028–2032) 1725 MtCO2e
6th Carbon budget (2033–2037) 965 MtCO2e
Estimate (2038–2050) 1053 MtCO2e
Sum 5693 MtCO2e
References
(1) IPCC 2022 Summary for Policymakers. Portner et al Para B.2
(2) IPCC para B.1.1
(3) IPCC para B.3
(4) IPCC para B.4
(5) UK Parliament, Police Crime Sentencing and Court Act 2022
(6) Morgan Trowland, Public Nuisance Essay
(7) Locke 1698 “Two treatises of government” second treatise para 227
(8) Locke 1698 “Two treatises of government” second treatise para 149
(9) IPCC para B.4.4
(10) Daily Telegraph 29 January 2023 “Labour set to block No 10’s Just Stop Oil slow-walking protest curbs”
(11) H. Damon Matthews et al, (2022, November 30). Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy. Nature Geoscience. https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/news/OpportunitiesAndChallengesInUsingRemainingCarbonBudgetsToGuideClimatePolicy.html
(12) North Sea Transition Authority (2022). UK Oil and Gas Reserves and Resources (as at end 2021). https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/media/8394/reserves-and-resources-2022.pdf
(13) The Global Registry of Fossil Fuels. https://fossilfuelregistry.org/
(14) Client Earth,18 July 2022 . “Historic High Court ruling finds UK government’s climate strategy ‘unlawful’”. Available online: https://www.clientearth.org/latest/press-office/press/historic-high-court-ruling-finds-uk-government-s-climate-strategy-unlawful/
(15) Rt Hon Chris Skidmore MP, January 2023. Mission Zero: Independent Review of Net Zero. Available online: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1128689/mission-zero-independent-review.pdf
(16) Rajamania, L. et al. National ‘fair shares’ in reducing greenhouse gas emissions within the principled framework of international environmental law. Climate Policy Volume 21, 2021 — Issue 8. Available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2021.1970504
(17) The Climate Change Committee.Advice on reducing the UK’s emissions. Available online: https://www.theccc.org.uk/about/our-expertise/advice-on-reducing-the-uks-emissions/#:~:text=Carbon%20budgets,-The%20Climate%20Change&text=A%20carbon%20budget%20is%20a,level%20of%20each%20carbon%20budget.
(18) EN1990:2002
