NBA Week #2
Week 2 is over and until today, almost each team has played at least 6 games. Worth to mention, it is -still- a very small sample size and there is no need to overreact but it will be important to see whether the early trends would continue or not. Unfortunately, last week we have also seen a couple of injuries that can change the outlook of some teams both in short and long term. Let’s hope we won’t see any injuries from now on and enjoy the basketball season.
Speaking of injuries, I want to talk about Brandon Ingram. He left the last game with a head injury but seems like he is okay and good to go for the next week(He played a MONSTER game against the Nets). He is having a break-out year with the averages of 25.9 ppg, 7.1 rpg and 4.3 apg with 55.2%(FG), 48.6%(3FG) and 74.3%(FT). He is also shooting the ball efficiently with 62.0 eFG% and 64.5% true shooting percentage.
Earlier in the first game against Raptors, I felt he was going to have a similar season like previous seasons, few stellar performances but spotty. But I was wrong because his shot selections and awareness against his matchup, especially in the offensive end, were noticable and they were not like last season(s).
While I was checking his shooting stats, I found a couple of interesting stuff and they also passed my eye-test as well. He is averaging almost one third of his attempts beyond the 3-point line, which is career-high for him and he is also shooting well behind the arc and all of his made threes(16) were ASSISTED this season.
Additionally, Ingram emerged as one of the deadly catch-and-shoot players this season and below graph proves it in a way. Ingram has averaged 8.3 points from catch and shoot plays, which ranked him 7th just behind sharpshooters Davis Bertans, Joe Harris, Taurean Prince and allstars who started season well, Kristaps Porzingis, Kevin Love and Karl-Anthony Towns.
The reason why Ingram excelled as a catch-and-shoot player can be the new offense of the Pelicans. According to NBA.com, New Orleans Pelicans are ranked 1st in both touches(452.8) and assists(29.7), and their fast-paced(7th) offense allows them to generate most points from assists with 77.3 points per game.
Pelicans were distributing the ball well thanks to their good ball handlers and it is going to be interesting to see if they can transform their egalitarian offense to more wins. As expected, Pelicans are having a good season in offense and Ingram has every reason to benefit from it.
Utah Jazz started the season a little bit shaky and they are still trying to figure out the implementation of Mike Conley into their offense. On the other hand, Donovan Mitchell is HOT, at this stage of the season. After an amazing rookie campaign, he did not make the leap at his 2nd season but he was still impressive by carrying Utah, especially in the regular season. This season, he is still Utah’s primary option and problem solver in the offense and the question is the following: will he *finally* make the leap through superstar territory?
In basketball, the offensive impact of a player is often associated with free throw attempts and in this part, I checked Mitchell’s free throw rate(FTr). Free throw rate is the ratio of free throws over total field goal attempts, which is a considerable take of a player’s offensive impact especially when you think the free throws are the most efficient shot in the game.
Last year, despite averaging 19.9 shots per game, Donovan Mitchell has attempted 5.1 free throws per game. This number of attempts were still good and high when I compared to the other players but I think it was not enough to put him in the superstar consideration.
Last season, only 7 players have attempted at least 18 shots and averaged at least 0.3 free throw rate. These players were dominant offensive weapons for their respective teams and above graph acknowledges their supremacy as they are distincted apart from other players.
In the below chart, still early in the season but, Donovan Mitchell has found himself a place when I applied the same criteria. It is no surprise that he is responsible for thriving Utah despite the struggles of Mike Conley and Rudy Gobert, specifically in the offensive end of the court.
Mitchell has attempted less shots than last year but his percentages are at his career best, as of today.
- Field Goal Attempts: 19.9 →18.1
- Field Goal Percentage: 43.2% → 52.0%
- 3-Point Attempts: 6.7 → 3.9
- 3-Point Percentage: 36.2% →44.4%
- Free Throw Attempts: 5.1 → 6.6
I think he evolved his game by attempting less 3-points and driving more aggresively to the rim and the stats were also a proof for this argument, as well. Per NBA.com, by driving, he recorded 2.5 free throws(9th in the league) per game last year and the number has jumped to 4.0 per game(3rd in the league) in this year. It is fair to say he is playing with an aggresiveness of a superstar and I’m wondering if this is sustainable or not. Utah will need his aggresiveness especially in the playoffs when they will face against other contenders in the West.
The last thing I think noteworthy was the strong plays of Damian Lillard and Kawhi Leonard during last week(NO SURPRISES). I am surprised because while I was watching the games, it appeared like they were scoring every bucket in the 4th quarter and out of curiosity I checked their stats, only for 4th quarter of games.
There are 8 players who averaged more than 9.0 points at 4th quarters of games: Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, James Harden, Kemba Walker, Russell Westbrook, Kyrie Irving, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Trae Young. Interestingly, 4 of these 8 players are playing for their new teams and they are making significant impact early in the season. During 4th quarters, Kemba has averaged the most in plus/minus column among the other players with +5.4 and Kawhi comes second with +4.8. No wonder Zubac rely on having Kawhi in the squad.
In terms of efficiency, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Russell Westbrook and Damian Lillard pop out with the percentages of 68.8%, 67.7%, 61.1% from the field during the last quarters of the game. I have some doubts about the sustainability of this feature throughout the entire season, especially for Westbrook and Lillard since they were not at the forefront in their respectful careers when we consider efficiency.
Although early weeks of the season is the most overreacted times, it still allows us to observe some trends and tendencies for the remainder of the season. I do not know these observations will be valid after one week or one month from now on but the question is, once again, are they sustainable or not.
