What the Year’s First Fundraising Number Can (and Can’t) Tell Us About 2024
We have now come to the first major sign post in the 2024 Elections: 1st Quarter Fundraising Disclosures. The deadline to disclose what each campaign and PAC has raised and spent from passed the start of the year to March 31 passed on April 10. We have our first real sense, limited as it is, of the vibrancy of each campaign and where the big fights will be. But first…
Limitations
It’s good ethically but bad narratively to disclose right off the bat the ways in which what I am about to say is limited, regardless those are parameters that are necessary on the front end.
The most significant limitation is the simple fact that sitting legislators may not actively take donations while the Legislature is in session. This means that all 99 Representatives and 33 Senators (including the 16 up this year) have raised either noting or only the interest which has accrued in their existing accounts. This means we really don’t have a good sense of what these incumbents are able to raise in the current year, and therefore how they are doing relative to their opponents.
There’s also an interesting timing wrinkle. The reports only go to March 31 while the deadline to officially become a candidate was April 12. That is to say, especially with the waive of relatively late recruitments on the Democratic side, a poor performance could be explained by the lateness of their start. A good example is House District 13, one of the state’s closest. Jonathan Yancey was a pretty late start. He has only raised $135 so far, but that could easily be explained away by his relatively late start. You can say the same about Democratic challengers or primary candidates in House Districts 14, 15, 25, 34, 35, 37… the list goes on. Meanwhile late GOP entrants in House Districts 50 and 67 make it hard to tell how serious a risk they are.
The upshot is that these numbers can only really demonstrate where there IS a big fight, not where there ISN’T. If a key challenger isn’t pulling their weight, we won’t know that until Q2. If an incumbent is raising too little money, that will have to wait too. That being said, without further ado…
GOP Senators Already Have Tough Primaries
Frankly, in the general, most of the action is in the House. In the Senate, while Democrats have someone running in most districts, there are only two marquee seats, 20 (Sen. Campbell-D) and 22 (Sen. Powers-R). 20 is the only downside Democrats have, with only one Republican running, Wyatt Rampy, a failed 2022 primary candidate in House 59. He’s raised $112,000.00, but considering $100,000.00 of that is money he gave himself, it remains to be seen the threat he holds long term, especially considering the district’s lean and Sen. Campbell’s name recognition. As for 22, challenger Karen Reynolds is raising enough organically to give Sen. Powers a run for his money. Districts 6 and 10 could be opportunities for Democrats, but again, that awaits fuller fundraising numbers as well.
We don’t need any more information to say, however, that several Republican Senators will have to fight to keep their spots on the ballot. I mention this in my previous article, but the GOP is playing out a huge factional battle in the Senate. In that article, I mentioned of course Chris Spencer, a hard-right conservative looking to represent Sumner and Trousdale Counties. He’s already raised $100,000.00 since starting, $34,000.00 in this quarter, and racked up endorsements.
With these fundraising numbers in, we can confirm this is not a fluke. Monica Irvine in Knoxville has $76,000.00 (though only $10,000 this Quarter) to unseat Becky Duncan Massey, relative moderate out of Knoxville. In the further reaches of the mountainous east, District 8 challenger Jesse Seal has raised nearly $20,000.00 to beat Sen. Nicely, while next door in District 12, Sen. Yager’s challenger has raised nearly $10,000.00. If Q2 numbers are substantial for any of these challengers, expect big spending, and likely an even harder right GOP on the other side regardless of victor.
Meanwhile, even for those races where fundraising numbers aren’t solid there are clearly fights on the horizon. Jon Lundburg in District 2 has a challenger named Robert Harshbarger. If the name sounds familiar, that’s because he’s the son of a sitting US Congresswoman. We might not have fundraising numbers, but a literal Congresswoman’s son? He (or more accurately, his mommy) can raise enough for a viable challenge. Meanwhile, longtime District 10 Sen. Gardenhire has a former Red Bank Councilman as an opponent. That at least indicates enough local support and connections to make that race interesting, and a big chunk of money in Q2 would make that doubly so.
GOP Representatives Already Have Tough Generals
As stated previously, most of the action come November will be in the state House. First off, there are several GOP primary fights, most of which still need time to develop. Open GOP primaries in 4, 12, 20, 65 (which features the District 59 nominee moving to Williamson County) and 68 of course promise interest. As for outright challenges, Reps. Stevens and Rudd in RuthCo swing Districts, Rep. Ragen in Oak Ridge, Rep. Sherrell in the Upper Cumberland and Rep. Todd in Jackson all have challengers with enough money to be credible, with more potentially in the offing.
This is also where we can talk about Democrats in detail, as there’s some interesting fights there as well. As, again, I touched on in my last article, several black Democratic Representatives have local elected officials challenging them, most notably Rep. Shaw but also Reps. McKenzie and Hakeem in East Tennessee. What I didn’t mention is two very interesting open races. The race to replace Old Hickory Rep. Jernigan has come down to two on the Democratic side, Tyler Brasher and Shaundelle Brooks. Meanwhile in suburban Memphis, the question is whether anyone can beat Gabby Salinas in District 96. Brasher in Old Hickory and anyone who isn’t Salinas in Memphis announced late, and therefore don’t have good fundraising numbers available yet.
But more importantly, there are already SEVERAL general election contests showing signs of life. In District 75 (suburban Clarksville), rising Democratic Star Allie Phillips has nearly $260,000.00 (including a stunning $170,000.00 this quarter alone), dwarfing what incumbent freshman Rep. Burkhart has raised or conceivably could raise even considering his inability to fundraise while House is in session. In Shelby County’s District 97, which Biden actually won in 2020, Jesse Huseth has built a comprable war chest to incumbent Rep. Gillespie, which he’ll need every red cent of.
And it goes on. With a nearly $40,000.00 haul this quarter, challenger Bryan Goldberg has double the war chest of sitting Rep. Davis in the rapidly shifting Knoxville District 18. In Smyrna, a similar $40,000.00 haul this quarter has set TIRRC alum Luis Mata up with a similar war chest to incumbent Rep. Sparks, one of the TNDP’s white whales. Back in Memphis, Noah Nordstrom has raised a cool $17,000.00 to beat Rep. White, once known as a moderate now wounded by his sponsorship of the voucher bill. Claire Jones in Brentwood and Alison Beale in Hendersonville also have surprisingly large hauls which would likely dwarf lesser opponents (opponents who are both high-level lawyers capable of self funding, with Jones’ opponent benefiting from Brentwood Country Club money and Beale’s opponent benefiting from being the Majority whip).
In brief, a lot of Democrats are already giving the GOP a run for their money in the House, a number that’s the highest it’s been in a long long time. And the GOP hasn’t flipped a seat from a sitting Democrat since they first gained their supermajority. Whether they still have the muscle to defend remains to be seen.
Democrats Are Raising* and Spending* a Ton, with Two Big Asterisks
Here’s an interesting tidbit: Democrats actually both outraised and outspend Republicans in Q1, at least in the House (and with the numbers available to me as of 4/21). Of the $897,415.61 raised this quarter for House races, $490,119.28 (about 54.6%) was raised by Democratic candidates. And of $883,186.94 spent in House races, $443,614.56 (about 50.2%) was Democratic spending.
While this is a sign of Democratic vibrancy, don’t jump for joy JUST yet. As has been stated, incumbents can’t raise money until Session is over. In case you haven’t noticed, a supermajority of those incumbents are Republican, meaning these numbers are without the GOP fundraising machine being on to any substantial degree. Moreover, when money isn’t coming in, you’re less likely to send a ton of money out, meaning, while not mandated, the moratorium on incumbents taking donations is likely depressing their spending as well.
Moreover, on both the earning and spending front, whales are skewing the numbers a bit. On the earning end, the aforementioned Allie Phillips raised $170k of the $500k Democrats raised (somewhere between a fourth and a third). Meanwhile, on the spending end there are two whales. And two is close enough to three for you to guess the source: the two Justins.
As is Rep. Pearson’s want, his money is mostly going to advocacy for progressive candidates and causes. Of the stunning $127k he spent, $100,000 went to a PAC he founded, Movement for Justice, which has done that work in the past (particularly in the Memphis Mayor’s race). And as is Rep. Jones’ want, the $56k he spent is going… not to that. It appears the biggest outlays for Jones are a combined $43,763.74 he paid a nice NYC PR Firm, Berlin-Rosen (specifically for “Video Production” and “Constituents/Donors Mailers”). No joke, the money Justin Jones spent on PR constitutes nearly 10% of Democratic spending (and 5% of all spending) in the state House in Q1. Regardless, spending by these two makes up $180k, about 40% of Democratic spending in Q1.
Even with those caveats, Democrats outraising and outspending the GOP is still shocking. If this continues, or even is not corrected severely enough, this could be a sign of trouble for the GOP. I’d say a 75–25 bias in raising and spending towards the GOP is “natural,” so if Democrats as a body politic overshoot that even once the GOP fundraising machine is truly in motion, there could be deeper issues for the supermajority moving forward.
Early Predictions
So, as has been made clear, a full set of seat predictions is undoable at this point (at least with any degree of precision). That being said, it is possible to make a description of the seats where there is and isn’t a conceivable challenge. Essentially, we can write off any seat where only one party is running, only one party and independent(s) are running, or contested seats won by one party or the other by a 50 point or more margin in 2020.
As stated previously, not a lot of action in the Senate. 20 (Nashville area) is a must-keep for Democrats, while 22 is the most viable flip. 6 and 10 have the potential to become competitive with the right funding. 14, 18 and 28 could become more competitive with a particular good candidate and/or a disordinate fundraising trend.
With all the seats up in the House, a fuller picture gets painted. First off, while that looks like a lot of red, the red (i.e. functionally safe for the GOP) area contains only 33 of 99 seats. Indeed, land does not vote. Combined with the 15 safe Democratic seats, the battleground is a set of 51 seats which, in some conceivable reality, could be competitive. The big six areas are concentrated around metros (or at least regional hubs): Nashville, Memphis, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Johnson City and Cookeville. Some of these districts will likely turn safe one way or the other the second Q2 comes up, but that will provide the information to make these maps full color.
That being said, even if we still await specifics, the battlefield is drawn and the first fights have been telegraphed. And it will be an interesting year.
