Existential Risks, and why they are worth thinking about
We are in a unique moment in time, about to face huge risks to humanity. It can be scary to think about them, but we need to in order to prevent our destruction.
What are the most important issues facing humanity right now? If you listen to politicians or the local news, it might seem that things like the economy or immigration are the biggest challenges we have. It’s true that stock markets fluctuate and people lose money, and newcomers and the societies they arrive at can have problems with integration and social changes, but these problems are unlikely to result in much death and suffering. However, there exists a different set of problems facing humanity that have the potential to wipe out large numbers of people, plunge us into a never ending dystopia or even cause our outright extinction. These are known collectively as existential threats.
The fate of the world is in our hands now more than ever. Image by Alicja from Pixabay
Existential threats are events which, through mass extinction or catastrophic social upheaval, have the potential to fundamentally destroy our way of life and bring about the end of the human era on planet Earth. They may arise through technological changes, political turmoil, or natural sources, but all of them have the potential to cause massive suffering.
It’s easy to understand why people aren’t focused primarily on these issues in their day to day lives. For one thing, they are scary and that makes them hard to think about. These types of threats also seem both too big and too far off for many people to think about. Most people don’t worry about global issues that are decades or centuries away from coming to fruition, and that’s understandable when they have families to feed and personal issues taking up their time. Some of these threats might also seem too unlikely to worry about. If an asteroid has only a one in a thousand chance of hitting Earth and destroying humanity, how much mental bandwidth should we dedicate to thinking about that? And more importantly, how much of our resources should we dedicate to stopping it from happening?
Here, I want to present to you some potential existential risks, ones which are much more likely than an asteroid hitting Earth. I also want to show why they are worth thinking about and planning for right now, before it’s too late.
AI Apocalypse
For decades, films, TV shows and books have shown us images of a potential future in which robots rise up and humans are wiped out or made a subservient underclass to our machine overlords. These were once constrained to the realm of science fiction and fantasy, but now, thanks to advances in machine learning algorithms, it seems all too possible that a nightmare AI scenario could come true. It’s not clear how an AI catastrophe might occur, but it will likely come through AI misalignment, malicious AI, or AI being harnessed by people for evil.
Misaligned AI is something along the lines of Nick Bostrom’s paper clip making machine. An AI given the simple instruction of making as many paper clips as possible takes the instructions too literally and turns all matter on Earth, including all humans, into paperclips. The goals of the AI are not inherently evil, but in attempting to complete these goals, they do things that run counter to our own goals of survival and happiness.
Malicious AI would be something more similar to the machines in the Matrix or Ultron from the Avengers franchise. If any algorithm gained full, human-like intelligence, what we refer to as Artificial General Intelligence, or AGI, it might develop both the capacity and the desire to get rid of humans. It might see us as a nuisance and not worth keeping around, or it may see us simply as an inferior being which can be exploited, much the way we now view livestock and plants. With superhuman intelligence, it could outsmart us at every turn and plan ten steps ahead of us, ensuring our demise, if it chose to do so.
Rogue states or terrorist organizations could also harness AI for nefarious purposes such as creating biochemical weapons, designing nuclear facilities and weapons, or planning attacks. AI is also a perfect tool for propaganda and sowing the seeds of dissent among your enemies. AI in the wrong hands has a high potential to be catastrophic for humanity.
In 2024, a panel of 2700 experts in artificial intelligence put the chances of total human destruction at 5%. This may seem small, but how many activities would you participate in knowing that you had a one in twenty chance of dying? When the worst case scenario means the annihilation of humanity as we know it, a 5% chance is worth taking very seriously, and making laws now to plan and prevent it.
Nuclear War
Since the final days of World War II, the threat of total nuclear war has loomed like a dark shadow over humanity. Charred wastelands where cities used to be, destructive ionizing radiation in the air and a never-ending winter are only a small handful of the potential outcomes of a full-on nuclear conflict. No one needs reminding how dangerous nuclear weapons are.
Nuclear war could destroy us in moments, just from the actions of a few people. Image by WikiImages from Pixabay
While we no longer have constant PSAs telling us to “duck and cover”, the possibility of nuclear war is as present as ever. Nine countries possess more than 12,000 combined nuclear weapons, and two of them (Israel and Russia) are actively engaged in war as of this moment. Another four (India, Pakistan, North Korea and China) are in a constant state of conflict with their neighbors that has the potential to escalate into full on war.
Thankfully, five of these nine countries are democracies where opposition to the current status quo is possible, and citizens have the freedom to demonstrate dissent through protests, writing articles and social media posts, or even running for office. Organizations like Longview Philanthropy and the Nuclear Threat Initiative are already working to decrease nuclear proliferation and mitigate the risks of all out war. With the potential for human destruction being as simple as a push of a button, it is worth taking very seriously and doing everything we can to stop that button from being pushed.
Pandemics
COVID-19 was a global catastrophe that lead to the deaths of over 7 million people, halted the world’s economy and travel, and disrupted almost everyone’s lives. It was, nevertheless, a relatively minor blip in the whole history of humanity. Those 7 million people represented less than 0.1% of the world’s population in 2020 at the beginning of the pandemic, in comparison to the Spanish Flu of the 1910s which wiped out 2–5% of the global population, or the Black Plague which reduced Europe’s population by perhaps as much as 60%. Another even deadlier pandemic than COVID-19 with numbers like the Black Plague would be an unmitigated disaster. And seeing how poorly we handled the last pandemic, it seems unfortunately very plausible.
The World Health Organization issued a warning to world leaders in 2024 that the next pandemic could be “20 times worse than COVID-19”. Such a disease epidemic would have far reaching consequences for the economy, international relationships, and of course, human health and wellbeing. An even more insidious disease that spreads quickly, lays dormant before having a rapid onset and high fatality rate could potentially be an existential threat.
Fortunately, preventing a global pandemic is relatively straightforward, as long as we have our priorities right and prepare correctly. Rather than a conflict of human vs. human, preventing a disease is a case of human vs. nature. Very few people have an interest in seeing the whole world destroyed by a pandemic, and therefore the potential for international collaboration is high.
On the other hand, trying to convince every nation on Earth to work together on a single project is notoriously difficult. The all too common problem of the tragedy of the commons means that many countries are not incentivized to put any resources towards preventing a global pandemic, but instead are apt to dedicate their resources to selfish, nationalistic enterprises. A few holdouts could have a substantial impact on the world’s ability to prevent a pandemic. This is why strong international relationships and unions are so essential for our continued survival. We only have one planet and what affects one country can affect everyone. Creating accords with strong economic and political incentives can be a key to encouraging widespread collaboration to keep everyone safe.
Climate Change
Over the past one hundred and fifty years, the climate has been rapidly changing thanks to human industrial activities. We have seen melting polar ice, increases in extreme weather like floods, hurricanes, and droughts, disruption of agricultural systems, increases in species extinction, overall warmer average temperatures, and a host of other problems. The evidence of human causes of climate change is overwhelming and irrefutable.
We are causing huge changes to the environment thanks to our industry, and that needs to change. Image by Peggychoucair from Pixabay
Like with pandemic prevention, the average country has a relatively small incentive to unilaterally institute climate change reform as long as not everyone else is doing it. Take a small country like Azerbaijan for example. The country and its ten million inhabitants accounts for just 0.1% of the worlds greenhouse emissions. Azerbaijan is, however, a country heavily dependent on carbon emitting fuels, namely oil and gas which accounts for nearly half of their GDP. Ceasing all production of oil and gas would have a devastating effect on their country, destroying most of the jobs and plunging them into economic destitution. And for their efforts and suffering, it would have almost no impact on global climate change as other countries continue to harm the planet.
This is why international organizations and unions are so important. Putting pressure on everyone to make changes, but also supporting smaller nations and making sure they don’t fall into a great depression, is the only way to make sure everyone complies and does what is best for humanity. We can’t expect individual countries to be altruistic and stop emitting greenhouse gases with little to no upside.
Luckily, doing things to help the planet doesn’t always have to be purely altruistic. When it makes more economic sense to use clean sources of energy, countries will do that, and it has already started happening in many countries. For example, Norway is one of the countries leading the way on climate change, with 98% of its electricity generation coming from renewable sources. They in fact export more electricity to neighboring countries than they use, thereby profiting off of their renewable energy generation. This is despite the fact that they have the 22nd largest reserve of oil in the world, just two places behind the aforementioned Azerbaijan.
The problems we face as a result of climate change will occur over decades. This is in contrast to a pandemic which can proceed in years or even months, or AI or nuclear war which can destroy us in mere moments. For this reason, it is unlikely that climate change will cause the extinction of all humans, as we adapt and invent new technologies and make political changes to counteract the effects. Nevertheless, the consequences of doing nothing are devastating, potentially leading to the death of billions of people and a complete disruption of our society. We need to make real changes and it needs to come through international agreements so we can make sure we preserve the planet that we have for future generations.
Conclusion
We stand at a unique position in time at this current moment. We have a deep understanding of the risks that await us moving forward into the future, and we also for the most part know how to prevent them. Philosopher Toby Ord refers to this as The Precipice. We are proceeding towards the edge of a cliff of human survival, and we can either choose to continue walking with our eyes closed or stop and turn around. The answer, to me at least, seems obvious.
The wellbeing of billions of conscious creatures is at stake right now. Going over the precipice and into the pit means suffering, death, destruction and chaos. Staying here on land and even moving backwards will mean the continued flourishing of humanity, happiness and joy, the proliferation of nature and unique species, and the continuation of the scientific venture. If there is anything good about existence, it is these things. They are worth preserving.
We need to make significant changes if we want to prevent any of these existential threats from coming to pass. It has to be done through social changes, international agreements, scientific collaboration and a public understanding of what we are facing and what we need to do. We can all be part of this effort to help humanity, and together we can solve these issues. It sometimes feels too dire to do anything, but if we have even a chance of saving humanity and our planet, it is worth doing everything we can.
