Comparing Lottery Big Men
The 2018 NBA Draft is rich with quality fours and fives, but they aren’t all created equal. Where does each one fit?
Reports of the death of the big man in the NBA have been greatly exaggerated, and the 2018 Draft will be proof positive that the man in the middle is not only alive, but thriving. This June, five of the top ten picks are likely to be centers or power forwards (six, if you want to throw in the 6’10” Michael Porter Jr, though I consider him more of a wing than a traditional big), with each potentially bringing a change of fortune to a franchise overnight.
But all of the 2018 bigs aren’t created equal. In fact, each one brings a significant set of individual strengths and another equally important set of weaknesses.
We have waxed poetically, here on The 94 Feet Report, about this draft being very “fit-dependent” meaning that rookies will have to fall into certain situations for each to hit his ceiling. With the all of the differences in DeAndre Ayton, Mo Bamba, Wendell Carter, Marvin Bagley, and Jaren Jackson, we should take a look what each of these players brings to the table, whether or not each has the capability to be a franchise player, and on which teams each one fits with best.
Wendell Carter Jr.
What Wendell Carter Brings to a Team
Wendell Carter is the most traditional big in this group. He excels as a cutter and rim-runner, scoring 1.83 points per possession (86th percentile, according to Synergy) and has insanely adept footwork around the rim. Watch how he eliminates any chance his defender has blocking his shot by using his large frame and quick feet:
He is also an underrated playmaker with excellent court vision, averaging 3.1 assist per 40 minutes at Duke. This ability to create offense for others allows for some versatility; he can be the sole big on the floor or can be paired with another low post player and operate out of the high post as a creator as he has done with Marvin Bagley this season.
His shooting mechanics are clean and he is shooting 41.3 percent on three-point 1.2 three-point attempts per game, a small sample size but one with encouraging results. He is also a 73.8 percent free throw shooter, something scouts and executives alike consider when projecting a player’s ability to stretch his game. If he falls into the right situation, Carter might be able to transition to an effective outside shooter in year one.
Probably his biggest strength is his basketball IQ. On defense, he is rarely out of position and can bait opponents into contested shots with his alignment and can defend without overplaying or fouling. He also is a great positional offensive rebounder and intelligent slasher, making him an formidable off-ball presence.
Is He a Franchise Player?
Carter’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as the others on this list but his insanely high IQ, playmaking abilities, and workable outside shooting have him creeping up on a lot of mock drafts. Two major concerns spring to mind, though.
In January he missed practice time with a foot injury, however because of NCAA policy regarding medical records, the nature of the damage is unknown. While NBA teams will have a good look at the specifics well before the draft, foot problems are no joke for players clocking in around 260 pounds. If Carter starts to slide on draft day, concerns about this injury might be real.
The other issue comes with his lack of elite athleticism, especially compared to Jackson and Bagley. With his other skills, he will be able to provide quality defensive rebounding to close out possessions, but guarding centers like Rudy Gobert and Joel Embiid on a night-to-night basis can be difficult for a center with limited length and leaping ability.
If Carter lands in the right spot and has a nice collection of shooters and slashers around him, he has the capability to become an All-Star caliber talent, but the mantle of franchise player is probably out of his reach.
Where does he fit best?
As I stated earlier, Carter is the most traditional center of the bunch. He is a good rim protector (if a little landlocked) and can play both the high and low post spots effectively. He will fit best in a system that can take advantage of his court vision and defensive rebounding prowess. The Clippers already have DeAndre Jordan, but should they decide to aim for a younger core, Carter would fit nicely with the players they already have on the roster (including some enticing high-low sets with Montrezl Harrell) and can be a secondary creator in units with Milos Teodosic. For the same reasons, he also makes a good fit in Chicago, Charlotte (who would love a young big to soak up some of Dwight Howard’s minutes, even if his going for 32 and 30) or Sacramento (where he might feel like a consolation prize if they can’t land one of the top six picks).
Best Fit: LA Clippers, Charlotte, Chicago, Sacramento
DeAndre Ayton
What DeAndre Ayton Brings to a Team
Deandre Ayton is a a physical specimen, standing 7’0” with a 7’5” wingspan, with the grace and balance of a dancer. And he already carries himself like a player destined to be a superstar. He has all the tools to become an elite offensive force in the NBA, scoring in the 98th (!) percentile during his freshman season at Arizona, according to Synergy. He is an elite post-up player (90th percentile) and can manhandle smaller defenders (which is to say most defenders) on the low block with a wealth of slick footwork and overwhelming strength. His ceiling is nearly limitless on the offensive end of the floor and drafting Ayton ensures a franchise will have a go-to scorer for years to come.
Is He a Franchise Player?
With all of Ayton’s potential comes two major areas that need improvement. First, he is a poor defensive player. Not okay, not average, downright bad. According to Synergy, he is in the 34th percentile guarding post-ups, the 48th percentile against the roller on pick-and-rolls, and in the 22nd percentile when switched onto the ball handler, something NBA bigs must be able to do even for small stretches. As covered above, he is an effective shot blocker both as a helpside defender and as a primary rim protector, but his on-ball defense leaves a LOT to be desired. The reasons why he is so poor are a bit of a mystery, he has quick feet and a long frame and can usually stay in front of players, but his defensive awareness is lacking, especially off-ball.
The other major problem for Ayton might be the cause of the first problem, his effort is inconsistent. Ayton often works hard to defend players when he is engaged against his man, but when he is either A) the help side defender or B) switched onto a wing, he tends to get beat in ways that he is completely capable of stopping. Watch here as he falls a sleep allowing a very contestable cut to the basket go unchecked:
Even with those substantial shortcomings, Ayton has still has the best shot of these big men to become a franchise player. He is enormous, he has incredibly quick feet. He has a rare combination of grace and power and all those skills usually translate to some quality play (see: O’Neal, Shaquille). I have cooled on him a little to the point that I might select two other players on this list before him, but I definitely see the draw.
Where does he fit best?
Ayton will probably be the first big (and maybe the first player) off the board. His best fits are with teams who are on the “best player available” plan, as he has the highest ceiling of anyone in the draft. But he will also need some quality coaching if he hopes to scratch the surface of his nearly limitless potential, and Atlanta’s Mike Budenholzer and (my personal favorite situation for Ayton) Dallas’s Rick Carlisle seem like good fits. Phoenix might select him, but with their revolving carousel of coaches and a young, undefined roster, I worry about him having the structure he needs to succeed.
Best Fit: Dallas, Atlanta
Mohamed Bamba
What Mo Bamba Brings to a Team
Mo Bamba casts a long shadow and uses that length to impose his will on the defensive end. Despite finishing an uninspiring 19–15 the Texas Longhorns defense ranked 11th out of 351 teams in the NCAA, according to KenPom rankings, in large part due to Bamba’s presence. He has a 9'6" standing reach and can make the lane a scary place for drivers. But he isn’t just a rim protector, he can challenge jump shooters, chase down rim-runners, and generally alter shots all around him. Plays like this, where Bamba doesn’t register a stat but forces a contested fall away shot, are a common occurrence while he is on the court:
Everyone’s favorite comparison for the lengthy 19-year-old is Rudy Gobert and while he does have some Rudy Gobert-like defensive capabilities, he will need to add some muscle to his lanky frame to maintain his status as an elite defender around the rim. He tends to get pushed around inside by stronger players, a serious problem for a defensive anchor.
Is He a Franchise Player?
Three years ago, I would have easily said no. But with the importance of having a rim protector who can switch increasing every year, I might have to reconsider. Bamba is an excellent individual defender in spot up and isolation sets (ranking in the 70th and 90th percentiles respectively) and has excellent instincts as a help side shot blocker. Watch on this play how he rotates and blocks Hallice Cooke’s shot from the OUTSIDE after starting on the other side of the lane:
One intangible hurdle may also hinder his draft stock for some teams, his intensity (or lack thereof). During his season at Texas, he had a tendency to disappear on both ends for extended stretches. Because of his lofty defensive ceiling and his youth, teams may believe this is a coaching issue that can be corrected at the next level, but it is a genuine concern that warrants watching.
Bamba’s offensive game also needs a tremendous amount of polishing before he can contribute to an NBA team. He is an ineffective screener and as a result lacks potency as a roll man when attacking off pick-and-rolls (0.773 points per possession, 20th percentile), a vital skill for NBA bigs. Despite his length, he is only an average post-up scorer (0.73 ppp, 34th percentile), having to rely on a few basic hooks and drop steps to create space. But if he can find a comfortable fit in a low usage situation, he can develop, and hopefully expand, his range with no expectations and a longer timeline. At his peak, he will likely be a net neutral offensive player who provides 4–5 defensive win shares per season.
Where does he fit best?
Bamba is an fresh-out-of-the-box defensive contributor who will excel as the last line of defense for whatever team he lands on. However, his offensive game will need time to develop. His best fit is probably alongside a four who can stretch the floor and give him room to operate inside. I think Bamba is one of the easier fits in this group, but if he lands on a team who expects him to be an offensive contributor on day one, his development might stymie. Chicago has no real rim protection and Lauri Markkanen gives Bamba space inside to use his considerable wingspan as a weapon while he learns to stretch his game.
Best Fit: Chicago
Marvin Bagley III
What Marvin Bagley Brings to a Team
Marvin Bagley is a bouncy, hyper-athletic big man who gives 100 percent on every single possession. He has innate rebounding instincts and is especially tenacious on the offensive glass. This high motor and quality rebounding combination creates a lot of opportunities for himself and teammates, by leading to one-shot defensive possessions and second chance halfcourt chances with a fresh shot clock.
He is also a terrific open court player who can use his length to turn defense into offense for himself or for teammates on the fast break. He is a capable break leader with good court vision (something that he interestingly seems to be lacking in halfcourt sets) and a surprising ability to get the job done off the bounce. All of his upside is showcased in this play against NC State earlier in the season as he hedges, recovers, makes a steal and takes it coast-to-coast in transition:
Bagley’s athleticism cannot be undersold. He is an incredibly quick leaper who can elevate to full height off either foot faster twice or three times faster than other NCAA bigs can get up once. He has all of the tools to be an effective defensive player at an NBA level, mostly because of his physical traits and not his defensive IQ, but will require a few years for the mental portion of the game to match his considerable athletic talent.
Is He a Franchise Player?
Bagley has some drastic downsides to his game, especially in the space-and-pace era. He is one of the nation’s most effective scorers, converting 603 possessions into 687 points (97th percentile), but a large percentage of those baskets come from offensive rebounding, cutting, or transition. While his shooting percentages look good, he has only scored by creating his own shot off the dribble once this season. Being a franchise player means you sometimes have to create your own shot, something Bagley doesn’t yet have a penchant for.
He is also a subpar rim protector with a small-ish wingspan, flaws that call positionality into question. This season, he has only recorded 29 blocks (the next lowest player of these five is Deandre Ayton with 66), showing that he doesn’t get a hand on nearly enough shots to be relied on as a defensive anchor. Ideally, Bagley would play a small ball five and would feast on pick-and-rolls and offensive rebounds, but recent players cut from the same mold who can’t stretch the floor and can’t protect the rim (Julius Randle, Jahlil Okafor, Dragan Bender) have not found a lot of success. But Bagley’s athleticism puts him in a different class than those players. If he can address his shaky shooting, and find a way to create offense of the bounce (whether as a jump shooter or passer) Bagley has way more boom than bust potential.
I think Bagley has insane upside because of his motor and willingness to learn and adapt, which places him as high as no. 2 on my big board. I am not sure that he will ever be the best player on a team making a deep playoff run, but his skill set makes him a perfect second banana.
Where does he fit best?
Bagley’s success seems to hinge singularly on his fit with the roster already in place. He has some unbelievable upside, but his flaws are glaring. He needs to be paired with a rim protector (at least at first) and he needs to be able to play in an off-ball role on offense (where he is by far the most effective). Memphis is the top choice, with Marc Gasol in the middle and Mike Conley running the offense, but a fit alongside Kristaps Porzingis (a stretch if the Knicks remain in the ninth spot) would give Bagley a comfortable spot (he has already been called a 6’10 Michael Beasley) to grow as well.
Best Fit: Memphis, New York
Jaren Jackson Jr.
What Jaren Jackson Brings to a Team
The best two-way player of the group, Jaren Jackson will be able to provide day one contribution on both sides of the basketball. He is a five-position defender who has no problem switching on to wings and even guards. He can protect the rim, as evidenced by his 3 blocks per game. And he can even stretch the floor (39.6 percent on 2.7 attempts). He is also one of the youngest players in the 2018 class, not turning 19 until well after the start of training camp in September.
Armed with a versatile skill set, an NBA-ready body, and a high basketball IQ (which seems to be a prerequisite for Michigan State players), Jackson has the highest floor of any big man. With offensive potential like this:
And defensive instincts like this:
I would be shocked if the freshman were still on the board after the top five selections.
Is He a Franchise Player?
Yes. At first I didn’t love Jaren Jackson, but the more I watch him, the more I see what I was missing. He has an impeccable sense of timing as a shot blocker, he uses his body well, can function in sets as the only big (though those sets were rare because of Tom Izzo’s baffling dedication to sophomore Nick Ward playing center) and has the capability of being a breakout scorer. All of these skills combine to make Jackson the most complete player on draft day, giving him a head start on his cohorts who will all have to polish their skills on one side of the ball.
He needs to improve his rebounding ability to complete his transition to a full-time five, however. Rebound rates are numbers that can have a lot of noise, but Jackson’s is the lowest of the group (15 percent total rebound percentage) and the tape backs up the numbers. He doesn’t box out well and can get caught flatfooted when an offensive player attacks the glass. The problem is largely physical and can be fixed by adding some muscle to his lean frame. If he can bulk up without losing the quickness that makes him so effective on the perimeter, he will be able to contend with the even the biggest centers in the league.
But he will also need to learn to play without fouling. In a meager 21.8 minutes per game, Jackson averaged 3.2 fouls (foul trouble accounts for a large portion of his bench time). He has a tendency to bite on pump fakes and can be very easy for offensive players with disciplined footwork to get around.
Where does he fit best?
Jackson is the easiest fit of any of the bigs. He is a prototypical modern five and will be an instant contributor regardless of where he lands. He also helps to alleviate team building concerns for the NBA’s basement dwellers. Constructing a roster around a two-way player like Jackson is much simpler than building around polar players like Ayton or Bamba, and as a result he can fit in with a litany of teams.
The Phoenix Suns haven’t gotten the desired result from either Marquese Chriss or Dragan Bender and are looking to for a young core around Devin Booker and Josh Jackson. Drafting Jaren Jackson might be a referendum on the other young bigs, but he would easily be the most talented of the group and would give the Suns a much needed defensive presence (outside of the aging Tyson Chandler) to pair with Booker.
He would also make a nice running mate for Atlanta’s John Collins who has been a solid player despite the lack of team success. Jackson’s defensive abilities would cover a lot of Collins’ faults and make for one of the best young frontcourts in the league.
Best Fits: Phoenix, Atlanta, Dallas
Stats provided courtesy of Synergy, Sports Reference, and Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings and are accurate through 3/27
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