Does Marvin Bagley III Have the Highest Ceiling of the 2018 Draft Class?
He has been one of the NCAA’s most prolific players, but is the freshman phenom worthy of a high draft selection?
For those who follow basketball on more than a casual level, the name Marvin Bagley III has been a part of the lexicon for nearly six months. The prodigiously talented 18-year-old Phoenix, Arizona native burst onto the scene in August when he made his nationally-televised decision to reclassify from a high school junior into a college freshman for the class of 2017.
And as soon as the NCAA season began, this looked like the best decision the 6’10 freshman could have made. Bagley has consistently been one of the most impressive collegiate players this season: he’s the first Duke freshman to ever have back-to-back 30 point and 15 rebound games, and he’s the only player this season to score 30 points against Virginia, the number one defense in the nation.
But the Blue Devils have also ripped off four straight wins with the ACC Player of the Year frontrunner sidelined since the game versus North Carolina on February 8th. In fact, Duke looks to be rounding into peak form anchored by Wendell Carter and 29th year senior (*estimated) Grayson Allen. Which leads to the inexorable question, how good IS Bagley?
It is a curious dichotomy, to be sure. On the one hand, he is one of the most impactful singular talents to grace college basketball this decade, posting insane stat lines and looking like the consensus number one pick on some nights. But other times, he looks like a defensively-limited small-ish center with a short wingspan who can’t be your primary rim protector. Shades of Al Horford, Kevin Love, Jahlil Okafor, and even Michael Beasley can be seen in his game, for better AND for worse.
But even with all these flaws, his name is rightfully in the conversation with international phenom Luka Doncic, physical specimen DeAndre Ayton, and two-way wunderkind Jaren Jackson Jr. as a top-five pick. His skill set is tailor-made for the modern NBA and he is still growing into his massive talent.
Marvin Bagley III might be the best player in the 2018 draft.
Offense
Being able to score is a must-have skill for NBA players who go early in the draft. Most lottery picks end up with a franchise largely devoid of talent and have a lot of the offense focused through them. This season, players like Dennis Smith Jr. and Donovan Mitchell, who have been given the keys to their teams offense, have usage rates in the stratosphere and even forwards like Kyle Kuzma and Josh Jackson are coming in north of 20 percent. But, Bagley has more offensive talent than Jackson and more versatility as a scorer than Kuzma. He already shows the capacity to carry a team’s offense over stretches and is a natural scorer all around the court.
In 451 possessions, numbers accurate through Feb. 8th (the last time Bagley suited up for the Blue Devils), he has scored 502 points translating to 1.11 points per possession, ranking him in the 94th percentile among all NCAA players, according to Synergy. A large percentage of those touches come from post ups (110 of the 394 half-court possessions), typically a low-efficiency look in the NBA. One of the real strengths he shows as a scorer is a soft touch around the basket. With a litany of floaters, runners, and hook shots, Bagley can do a lot of damage in the low post. On this play, Bagley takes a left hand dribble from the right block before shooting a HUGE sweeping hook, giving his defender absolutely no shot at contesting:
The freshman has slowly been expanding his game to include taking players off the dribble too. Watch on this play (a really well-designed high-low action with running mate Wendell Carter) how Bagley shows to the top of the key, flashes the shot fake and takes a single dribble to get to the cup:
Slashes leading to short-range shots are where he is at his most dangerous, particularly going to his left hand. Southpaw scorers, like Manu Ginobili and James Harden, have always made a splash in the NBA because of the half-second that defenders freeze or turn their feet the wrong way. But Bagley might be TOO left-handed. He often gives up good right-handed looks to force up contested shots with his dominant hand (something he will definitely have to rectify once he shows up on NBA scouting reports):
This clip also shows another strength: his offensive rebounding ability. Attacking the glass for second-chance opportunities, as he has done 78 times averaging 1.36 points per possession, is an oft-underrated skill in the NBA. Boxing out is almost a forgotten art and offensive rebounders like Steven Adams and Andre Drummond feast on these deep-in-the-paint opportunities. Bagley isn’t as tall or broad as either, but he definitely has a knack for collecting boards and turning them into points, even in traffic:
He is a phenomenal leaper and uses that to his advantage on the offensive end. He elevates incredibly quickly and can jump two or three times before his opponent jumps once, giving him a nice advantage over larger players with more bulk.
But offensive rebounding attempts prevent a player from getting back in transition, a shortcoming clearly seen with Bagley. If he continues to be an effective scorer in these situations, the upside may outweigh the potential run-outs, especially if the team that drafts him can limit the raw number of transition attempts as Detroit and Oklahoma City have done.
He has also begun to stretch his game out beyond the three-point line. In an ideal world, Bagley would be a stretch five who could protect the rim, but the likelihood of entrusting the last line of defense to him is pretty low. So, in order to play with another big man, he needs to be able to space the floor, something else which is slowly becoming a part of his game.
Bagley has only attempted 48 three-pointers this season, but he has knocked down 17 (35.4 percent, most of which have come from above the break, an important spot for NBA bigs to knock down shots. That percentage is remarkably similar to Kevin Love during his single season at UCLA who went 29-for-82 (35.4 percent), another player who was known for his inside play as a college freshman and added another facet as a young NBA player.
In fact, Love’s mechanics at UCLA don’t look all that dissimilar to Bagley’s:
With no major hitch in his shot, he has no substantial hurdle to overcome in expanding his range. While he may never turn into the deadly three-point aficionado that Love has become during his tenure with the Cleveland Cavaliers, improving his accuracy outside the arc to a point where it must be respected is not out of the realm of possibility.
But his offensive game does have one major hole: he isn’t a natural passer and that is one flaw he will have to improve to truly reach his ceiling. He often overlooks open shooters and plays toward the basket with horse blinders on. Many young players have had similar mindsets during their time in the NCAA and have adjusted their game accordingly as they age. Quality NBA offenses are predicated on moving the ball to open shooters to maximize efficiency, and Bagley can sometimes miss the easy pass.
One way to help ease that particular ailment is for him to get familiar with his teammates. At Duke, he was a late arrival and didn’t get to go through summer workouts with the team, and Bagley has only had 24 games to learn tendencies. Once he reaches the NBA, he will have played more than 24 games by Christmas, getting some much needed on-the-job training. Passing isn’t necessarily a skill that can be learned overnight, but as we have seen with many ball-dominant forwards (like Kevin Durant who averaged 1.3 assists per game while at Texas, compared to his 5.5 this season), the vision to spot open teammates improves with more reps.
Defense
Bagley is one of the most elite athletes in the top of the draft. He almost has to be to be considered a top-tier prospect, though, because he lacks the wingspan (7’0.5) of other 2018 big men, Ayton and Mo Bamba (7’5.5” and 7’9” respectively). But to combat his relative lack of length, he elevates with ease and can jump off of either foot and still explode to his maximum height. Watch how quickly Bagley jumps multiple times to contest a shot and then grab a defensive rebound:
However his athleticism has not translated into effective rim-protection. But this isn’t because of an inability to defend the rim, just a lack of knowledge. Bagley is an incredibly young player (not turning 20 until March of his rookie season) who has shown decent instincts for defending the rim and blocking shots. On this play he comes from the weak side in the zone to challenge a shot at the apex, displaying both timing and explosiveness:
But he will have to grow into the role as he adjusts to the speed and physicality of the NBA. And while he will likely never be a Rudy Gobert-like rim defender, with all of his other skills, he doesn’t necessarily need to be to find success.
But this opens up the largest question about Bagley: what position does he play? As we have covered, he is ideally a five, but lacks the length against larger lineups. With some teams in the lottery (like the Knicks), he can be paired with a paint protector who can stretch the floor to give Bagley room to work. But the truth of the matter is that if Bagley rises to his immense ceiling early on, the organizational imperative will shift to fitting players around him instead the opposite.
The NBA is changing. More and more teams are playing lineups without a traditional rim protector, instead relying on interior defense by committee and hyper-versatility on switches to carry them. The Boston Celtics, the league’s best defensive team by rating, often play lineups with Al Horford as the center. Horford is noted for his ability to defend players along the perimeter, but his rim protection numbers aren’t terribly impressive, ranking in only the 72nd percentile, according to Cleaning the Glass. But if this kind of defense is in Bagley’s wheelhouse (and it looks to be), the rim protection numbers won’t destroy his draft stock:
What Horford does is challenge shooters using his length in isolation situations to force contested shots, a valuable, if hard to quantify skill. Bagley has shown a penchant for doing the same thing, only allowing 0.56 points per possession on isos, a number that ranks him in the 80th percentile and 0.84 points around the basket (72nd percentile). While he isn’t going to be the next Rudy Gobert, he demonstrates a skill set that could thrive in a modern NBA defense.
Having a 6’10 forward who can switch on the perimeter is an absolute must in the modern NBA, and Bagley is one of the best in college basketball. He has incredibly quick feet and can use them in combination with his length to stay in front of wings and even guards. While his defensive ceiling is lower than a prospect like Jaren Jackson Jr., he still shows he can be a force on that end. Watch on this play how he is switched onto Gators point guard Chris Chiozza and closes out on a three-pointer before eventually blocking a shot on the drive:
Plays like that highlight his Swiss Army knife-like capabilities. He can stay in front of guards, challenge shots, jump passing lanes, and generally be a menace to opposing offenses when he is locked in. This might be the ultimate display of Bagley’s versatility, hedging, helping, and generating a steal before turning it into offense:
Defensive questions are fair to ask, and the ceiling for his abilities will not likely hit those of Mo Bamba or Mikal Bridges, but Bagley has already shown signs that all the tools are in place for him.
Overall, his draft stock will remain buoyed by his colossal offensive footprint. He brings a multifaceted skill set and an NBA-ready body to the table. And Bagley has shown the ability to learn and adapt his game while still being very young. There aren’t a lot of things that he just can’t do on the defensive end, especially with his leaping ability and quick feet. The first few seasons may involve a learning curve for the 19-year-old, but the sky’s the limit.
He might even be the best of 2018.
Statistics courtesy of www.NBA.com
