Cam O’LearyThe Alaska At-Large Black SwanModels are great. They can help you systematically take in new information, and project the state of the world forward…until they can’t. A…Sep 12, 2022Sep 12, 2022
Cam O’LearyTrump’s Electoral College Edge Could Shrink in 2020As it becomes increasingly clear that Biden will win the popular vote in the fall, only one question now matters: What is Trump’s electoral…May 24, 2020May 24, 2020
Cam O’LearyWatch Warren on Super TuesdayA million people have voted. They’ve spoken clearly that there are 2 front runners. Just under 15 million will vote by poll close Tuesday…Mar 1, 2020Mar 1, 2020
Cam O’LearyRGGI 2020: Looking Great, Now Do It or TransportDemocrats took control of all of Virginia’s branches of government last night, and perhaps the biggest winner, other than the candidates…Nov 10, 2019Nov 10, 2019
Cam O’Leary538 Senate coverage focuses on the wrong Data PointReaders of 538 know it has a Senate problem. It just does a bad job of describing how Senate elections currently favor Republicans and to…Sep 2, 2019Sep 2, 2019
Cam O’LearyTie me upWith a year to go to election day and no Democratic front runner its hard to predict what the Presidential map will look like. However we…Aug 15, 2019Aug 15, 2019
Cam O’LearyQuick Midterm ThoughtsOverall a success. We haven’t won the house in a decade! 35 seats is a massive pick up, and we’re clearly in the majority.Easy to get down…Nov 8, 2018Nov 8, 2018
Cam O’LearyBlue Wave Bingo: East and CentralHere is a Bingo Game to try and follow the elections and ballot measures in the Eastern and Central time states. Some states omitted as…Nov 3, 2018Nov 3, 2018
Cam O’LearyThe 22nd AmendmentWe’ve all entertained the fantasy of Barack Obama Term III. Perhaps after a pinot or a tub of Ben and Jerry’s, or stone cold sober after…Jun 21, 2018Jun 21, 2018
Cam O’LearyBeto O’Rourke Can Beat Ted Cruz: By The NumbersIt’s official: Congressman O’Rourke will face incumbent Senator Cruz for Texas’ Senate seat. Barring a major scandal, I predict the…Mar 7, 20181Mar 7, 20181