2016 Election Update: A Look Back and A Look Forward

by Camilo Arenivar

Well, another month in Election 2016 winds down and where are we now? There are only 22 Primaries & Caucuses left in the nominating process, no candidate on either side has locked their Party’s nomination and it does not seem like that will happen anytime soon. In fact, things seem to be downright raucous. But the delegate math is about to change by the next time I write my election update at the end of April. Let’s see where we are.

The Republicans

On the Republican side, we now have just three men standing. The main fight (and it is indeed an ugly fight) remains between the front runner, Donald Trump and his competitor, Ted Cruz. The other guy still in the race? Kasich, who has won just two states. One might say he is staying in so that when this turns into a brokered convention the Establishment can direct the Party behind him. Face it — the establishment does not want Trump and they have never liked Cruz. The Religious Right part of the Conservative base is rallying behind Ted Cruz but due to all the new Republicans who registered so they could vote for Donald Trump, it is still not enough to stop Trump. Ted Cruz is poised to win Wisconsin in early April but look for him to get Trumped pretty much everywhere else (NY,MD) — John Kasich has a fighting chance of winning in Pennsylvania. The question is, will Cruz or Kasich be able to inflict enough damage to keep Trump from reaching 1237 delegates? The drama continues…

Donald Trump Would Be Better Than Ted Cruz

Why? Because Trump is not a real conservative. He did not even go to CPAC (the Conservative Political Action Committee) which is such an important milestone for most Republican candidates. And why don’t the Evangelicals support Trump? Because they know what he is not. And he is not one of them. He has no track record of being a Bible-thumping theocracy is good for America religious right winger. That guy is Ted Cruz. Even former President Jimmy Carter has said he would choose Trump over Cruz. Why? Well, as he told the British House of Lords in February. He said “… Trump has proven already he’s completely malleable, I don’t think he has any fixed [positions] he’d go the White House and fight for. On the other hand, Ted Cruz is not malleable. He has far-right wing policies he’d pursue if he became president.” Hardcore right wingers appear to agree. It’s also rumored that Trump has told the New York Times off the record that he would not necessarily do all he has said he would do about immigration (mass deportations, make Mexico pay for a wall). Regardless, my point is that if you hold to Democratic ideals, you would rather have Trump than Cruz winning in November if the Democrats were to lose. He is a reality star and has been playing to the cameras this whole time and the racists have bitten hook, line, and sinker. Of course, the only Republican that gives a Democrat a run for their money anyway is John Kasich, a throwback to the 90s kind of Republican.

This still does not make Trump a good guy…he’s a “very bad guy” for sure because of the division he has drawn in this Country. But the real Donald Trump, if you look at his history, is largely different than the one he plays on TV and on the election trail.

The Democrats

What a ride this one has been. In March Hillary Clinton won 16 states to Bernie Sanders 13. Hers were in more populous, diverse states that had larger delegate counts while Bernie for the most part won in smaller less diverse caucuses. He closed the gap a little at the end of the month with a pseudo comeback in the Western caucuses winning Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington state by wide margins. In the end he was still behind and when you threw in the much maligned super delegates, Hillary held onto a much wider league. Speaking of super delegates, after losing Arizona, the Sanders Camp, who had been very critical of super delegates started to say they would start going after the super delegates in an effort to get them to switch. Wait — I thought super delegates were what was wrong with the process???
 
The upward trend will continue for Mr. Sanders in April. Wisconsin, which votes on April 5th seems poised to feel the bern by at least 5–8% points (although not the kind of larger win he needs at this point). Wyoming which follows on April 9th seems ripe for the candidate. But the joyride for Bernie ends there. He is likely to lose Hillary’s Senate home state of New York by at least 10% points if not more, and that’s a delegate heavy state (247 vs. 85 in Wisconsin and 14 in WY) Sanders needs to win by large margins in delegate heavy states to take command of the delegate math. Things get worse at the end of the month where Clinton stands to further expand her delegate lead in the next mini-Super Tuesday on April 26th when Connecticut (55 delegates), Delaware (21 delegates), Maryland (95 delegates), Rhode Island (24 delegates), and Pennsylvania (189 delegates) goes to the polls. Hillary is expected to sweep most of them.
 
“Bernie Drop Out”
 
 There are some in the Hillary Clinton camp who think Bernie Sanders should drop out. How boring would that be? All of these upcoming primaries and caucuses would be a snoozefest. The competition has made Clinton a stronger candidate. I see no reason for Bernie to drop out prior to his losing properly. The only thing I think that would be good about him dropping out is that some of the disparaging comments his followers make about Clinton would be diminished. Fortunately, a #votebluenomatterwho movement is picking up and in California, 80% of those who support Sanders said they would vote for Clinton if she was the nominee in the General Election. 
 
 While it is likely for the Democrats to unite by the time of their convention, the same could not be said for the Republicans where now the candidates are saying that they cannot commit that they would be able to back Donald Trump should he become the nominee. 
 
 Obama Riding High

One last thing to note — one thing that historically does impact the election — the present sitting President, Barack Obama is holding steady with at or above 50% approval ratings. This is around where Ronald Reagan was at the end of his two terms which led to the GOP nominee, George H.W. Bush winning in 1988. Democrats can only hope that the Obama’s favor-ability ratings spill over to their candidate in November. If his ratings hold, it looks much more likely for a President Clinton or Sanders in November.