Camilo’s 2017 Oscar Predictions

2017 Oscar Predictions by Camilo Arenivar

I did not make predictions for ALL the categories, but most of the major ones. Here goes:

BEST PICTURE

Arrival

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

Hidden Figures

La La Land

Lion

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

I have seen all nine nominated films and wow, what a good year for Best Picture nominees. We have three triumphant, moving true stories (Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, and Lion), two play adaptations (Fences and Moonlight), a soaring musical homage to the classic Hollywood musicals with a positive message about following your dreams (La La Land), a brilliantly directed and well woven intelligent sci-fi film (Arrival), a tale of brothers hell-bent on vengeance via bank robberies (Hell or High Water), and a morose look at a very unlikable person dealing with (or choosing not to deal with) the pain death and tragedy brings him (Manchester By The Sea). Actually, I really didn’t like that one but it had beautiful cinematography and memorable performances. All that being said, I really feel that these films offered something for everyone this year.

Prediction:
 
Will Win: La La Land

Could Win: Moonlight

Should Win: Hard to pick one but my favorites this year were Lion, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hidden Figures, and Moonlight.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling, La La Land

Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Denzel Washington, Fences

I’ve seen 4 out of 5 of these nominees (did not see Captain Fantastic). Such a close race between Affleck and Washington…

Prediction:
 
Will Win: Denzel Washington (the SAG predicts it 18 out of 22 times and most of the last ones so I use that to make my decision)

Could Win: Casey Affleck — he’s won many of the earlier indicators and could still pull through.

Should Win: Denzel Washington — his acting was all that Fences was really about in my opinion

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Isabelle Huppert, Elle

Ruth Negga, Loving

Natalie Portman, Jackie

Emma Stone, La La Land

Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Only saw 3 of these performances (Negga, Stone, and Portman)…but my predictions are not based on my opinion so….

Prediction:
 
Will Win: Emma Stone — she pretty much has a lock, but… 
 
 Could Win: Isabelle Huppert surprised everyone with the Golden Globe…and Natalie Portman embodied the former First Lady in Jackie, so…could go to one of these two too.
 
 Should Win:
Natalie Portman — she was stunning!

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel, Lion

Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals

I’ve seen all 5 performances and think they are all noteworthy — I predicted Shannon’s nomination in my review last year.

Prediction:
 
Will Win: Mahershala Ali — indictors all there but Oscar is known for surprises.

Could Win: Dev Patel

Should Win: Mahershala Ali — his performance and role in Moonlight is critical to the outcome of the movie.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Viola Davis, Fences

Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Nicole Kidman, Lion

Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea

I saw all 5 of these performances too and they all bring something key to these films. 
 
 Prediction:
 
Will Win: Viola Davis has a lock on this! 
 Could Win: No one but Viola
 Should Win: I prefer Naomie Harris in Moonlight for this. She was really good as the boy’s mother. I did not realize how much she put into this role until I realized she is British and saw her in a different film.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Arrival

La La Land

Lion

Moonlight

Silence
 
 Prediction:
 
Will Win: La La Land (because it’s La La Land) 
 Could Win: Lion or Arrival
 Should Win: Arrival
 
 DIRECTING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

La La Land

Manchester by the Sea

Moonlight

Prediction:
 
Will Win: Damien Chazelle for La La Land 
 Could Win: Barry Jenkins for Moonlight
 Should Win: Denis Villeneuve for Arrival. His direction is the only reason this movie is nominated for the Oscars it is!
 
 
 FILM EDITING

Arrival

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Moonlight
 
 Prediction:
 
Will Win: La La Land (because it will be on a roll) 
 Could Win: Arrival (Arrival and La La Land split the awards amongst their own Editors in the Editors Awards (Eddies)
 Should Win: Arrival — that ending! The editing is perfect.
 
 
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

“Audition (The Fools Who Dream)” from La La Land

“Can’t Stop The Feeling” from Trolls

“City Of Stars” from La La Land

“The Empty Chair” from Jim: The James Foley Story

“How Far I’ll Go” from Moana

Prediction:
 
Will Win: “City Of Stars” from La La Land
 Could Win: “How Far I’ll Go” from Moana
 Should Win: Definitely “City of Stars”

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

Arrival

Fences

Hidden Figures

Lion

Moonlight

All great stories!

Prediction:
 
Will Win: Moonlight (it won the WGA for Best Original Screenplay)
 Could Win: Arrival (won the WGA for Best Adapted Screenplay)
 Should Win: Hidden Figures

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester by the Sea

20th Century Women

Prediction:
 
Will Win: Manchester By The Sea 
 Could Win: La La Land
 Should Win: Hell or High Water