POLITICS: Battleground 2016 — Clinton Regains Lead — for now

Background: I am blogging each week about where I believe we are in the Electoral College votes based on the previous week’s polling in the battleground states. This is because the Presidential election is based not on popular vote, but that of the Electoral College. More on that here.
 
 It is now 4 weeks to Election Day, and nearly 3 weeks since my last post about the polls. Three weeks ago, Hillary Clinton was barely holding onto her electoral college lead, and part of her 272 electoral college vote firewall, Colorado and Virginia, were starting to look weaker. 
 
 Then, came the first Presidential debate. If the present polls hold, we will look back at that being the turning point in this election. The polls that came out in the week and a half following the 9/26 debate all began to show better numbers for Hillary Clinton. Then, last Friday came the infamous Access Hollywood tapes of Donald Trump bragging about grabbing women. Sunday the 2nd Presidential debate played out in St. Louis and Trump is considered to have exceeded expectations despite most concluding Clinton still won the debate.
 
 The polls that make up my present analysis in the battleground states do not take into account either of those two events of the past weekend — not the sexual groping or the debate. So we should have a handful of polls by the time I post again next Tuesday (yes, I will be posting every week now). 
 
 So where are we? Let’s start with the biggest changes. 
 
 Florida
 
 There have been 7 polls since my last post in Florida between 9/27 and 10/5. Clinton beats Trump in 6 out of 7, and the one that had Trump ahead was just by one point. Two of the polls had Clinton’s lead outside the margin of error and she is now averaging 2.4% over Trump. This week, I am going to take Florida out of “Toss-Up” status and give it a “Leaning Clinton” status. This could all change by next Tuesday if the polls take a different slant.

Ohio
 
 There have been 4 polls between 9/27 and 10/7 in Ohio and Clinton lead in the last 3, with one of them narrowly out of the margin of error. It’s enough of a new slant from where we were 3 weeks ago to move this from “Leaning Trump” back to “Toss Up” status. Again, good news for Team Clinton.
 
 North Carolina
 
 There have been 5 polls between 9/27 and 10/6, and Clinton is leading them all. All within the margin of error, except one. Right now she is averaging 2.6% ahead of Trump according to Real Clear Politics. And this makes me make another change. It’s enough of a change to move this from “Toss Up” to “Leaning Clinton”. 
 
 Nevada
 
 Four polls in the Silver State between 9/27 and 10/4 and Clinton lead 3 of them, and the last one was a tie. One of them has her lead outside of the margin of error. I am moving Nevada from “Leaning Trump” back to “Toss Up”.
 
 Previous Areas of Concern: CO, MI, VA
 
 The last time I did analysis, there had been some signs of weakening poll numbers in Colorado, Michigan, and Virginia. The polls in the last two weeks have erased those doubts and they remain part of her firewall. 
 
 Bottom Line: Hillary Clinton is poised to have a significant Electoral College win if things remain as they look now. The caveat is that the polls tend to change week to week, so we will see if it tightens up again or if this is the writing on the wall for Donald Trump.