POLITICS: Battleground 2016 -Clinton Still Winning Electoral College -Barely
Background: I am blogging each week about where I believe we are in the Electoral College votes based on the previous week’s polling in the battleground states. This is because the Presidential election is based not on popular vote, but that of the Electoral College. More on that here.
The last week had a slew of polls, with very mixed results. Despite all this, I see little change in the electoral college outlook, but a couple of signs of concern in a couple of polls that I would say are more of Clinton’s strongholds of the battleground states. Let’s examine.
So I just looked back at 2012, and yes Obama won Florida but he won it by .09%. Right now, the Real Clear Politics average of polls has the race at a tie. The last two polls there in the last week had Clinton ahead by 5 points, and 1 point. The older poll, a somewhat reliable CNN/ORC poll from 9/14 had Trump up 3. Florida will go down to the wire and remains impossible to call.
The last 3 polls in the last week there have Trump in the lead and for this week, and this week only, I am putting Ohio in the Trump column. That is what the data shows for the last week.
There was another poll here in the last week and it too showed a Trump lead. After last week’s poll with a Trump lead and this week, I am putting it in Trump’s column. It can be battled for, but right now Trump is winning that battle.
Areas of Concern: CO, MI, VA
Colorado had the first poll in 3 months showing a Trump lead. It was, however, the questionable Emerson poll which polls landlines only and using an interactive voice response. We need more polls to see if this is a serious trend. For now, Colorado stays in Clinton’s column.
Both Michigan and Virginia had polls with Hillary Clinton ahead within the poll’s margin of error. More polls will need to be done here to see if her lead has actually eroded to that point where these states that have been firmly in her column are back to true toss ups.
The Bottom Line: Despite OH, FL, NC, and NV being in serious doubt, even without them — Hillary Clinton has an Electoral College wall in the battleground states with Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. If she can hold on to the reliably blue states and those six battleground states, she still wins the election with 272 Electoral College votes.