The thinking behind Campaign Together’s target seat list for the 2019 General Election
Campaign Together is working to #TurfOutTheTories in 50 marginal seats. Our target seat list — compiled by campaign managers, election geeks and campaigners from across the progressive movement — is the result of over two years of careful analysis and work.
Our seat selections are based on where a strong ground campaign can make the most difference, and where a combined progressive effort stands the most chance of kicking out the Tories.
We don’t rely on dodgy polls with leading questions, or biased analysis commissioned by political parties. We pride ourselves of being independent of any one party. We only want to see the Tories defeated, and so we have come up with a dataset that allows us to do that. We base our targets on a combination of the most reliable available data (the results of the last General Election) and the combined decades of campaigning experience in our team.
In the 2017 General Election, Campaign Together’s work helped kick the Tories out in a handful of seats across the country. This time round, with your help, we can do it in enough seats to elect a people powered government.
How we choose our target seats:
1) What were the results in the 2017 General Election?
The results of the last general election are the most accurate predictor of how a constituency will vote in the next election. There is likely to be a similar turnout, similar local issues and geography, the same voting system is used and the rules and regulations around the campaign — spending limits, media coverage rules — are the same.
Yes, a lot has changed since 2017, but the results of the last general election are still the most accurate predictor of future behaviour — not dodgy opinion polls commissioned by political parties with dubious questions or small sample sizes.
2) How marginal is the seat?
We look at the seats where a strong ground campaign by Campaign Together could make the difference between a Tory candidate winning, and a progressive one. We want to make sure progressives are campaigning in winnable seats where they can make the difference.
3) What is the voting make-up and special circumstances of the seat?
We look in detail about how people voted last time. Was the progressive vote split? Could Campaign Together work to make sure that doesn’t happen again? For example, did the 5,000 votes that Party X got mean that Party Y, the biggest progressive party, didn’t take the seat from the Tories? We also examine local factors that others might overlook — like the candidates standing for each party, the presence of important local issues and small local parties and independents.
4) Is it right for Campaign Together?
Finally, we assess a range of factors to see if the constituency is a good fit for Campaign Together. Do we have lots of members and supporters in the constituency or around it? Are there safe seats nearby for progressives to travel from to canvass? Is this a big target for other groups? If so, we may avoid it to make sure we spread the progressive effort wide enough to win.
Adam McGibbon, Director of Election Strategy
