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In Capfolio’s latest analysis, we update our position on the state of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market. Recent reports have made it clear that institutions are betting on price moving downward. We see the most likely scenario for bitcoin price being a decline to an area of buyer liquidity.

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Quick take:

• Bitcoin price and the sentiment of investors took a hit over trading last week

• With bitcoin price trading below its 200 DMA and the OBV trending downwards, we anticipate further bitcoin price declines in the near-term future.

• Recent reports have illustrated that institutional investors are betting on Bitcoin price moving to the…


While the long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains extremely optimistic, several indicators are suggesting a high risk of a sharp sell-off in the coming weeks.

Quick take:

• Bitcoin is shaping up to have a higher risk of a sharp sell-off in the near-term as it trades beneath its 200 DMA and OBV trends downward

• The longer-term outlook for Bitcoin remains extremely optimistic as there is evidence of both smart money investing in the asset and macroeconomic conditions exacerbating

Volatility has certainly been reignited in the Bitcoin market with two significant price movements taking place last week. Last week wrapped up with a significant move to the upside for bitcoin but price may be returning to a vulnerable position with substantial downside risk as our technical analysis will highlight. …


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Bitcoin Technical Analysis — Spike Observed in the Number of Addresses Holding 1,000 Bitcoin

Quick take:

• There has been a spike in the number of addresses holding greater than 1,000 Bitcoin suggesting that institutions may be accumulating

• An increase in fees preceded a price increase observed yesterday

• As Bitcoin mostly consolidated over the past week, the 200 DMA, 100 SMA, and Fibonacci retracement levels have all been worth monitoring

Bitcoin Consolidation Phase Within Wider Macro Bull Market?

Following from a week where an extraordinary two-day price jump was observed, last week’s price action was more subdued with long periods of consolidation. The extraordinary two-day price jump where price appreciated 42% open-to-high corresponded closely with Xi Jinping’s urge for the country to embrace blockchain technology.

This was one of those rare moments where a news development can be strongly linked with a price movement. Last week was devoid of such news catalysts. One analyst noted he believes bitcoin is currently in a prolonged consolidation phase inside of a wider macro bull market.

Technical Analysis of Bitcoin Price Performance — Price Rebounds Above the 200 DMA

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Bitcoin Daily Chart — Source: Capfol.io

The 42% price jump in bitcoin forced analysts to reframe their technical outlooks as the appreciation brought bitcoin price in line with entirely new levels.One key development was the return of price levels above the 200-daily simple moving average (200 DMA), a metric commonly to monitored to gauge the longer-term trend direction. …

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