Inching ahead: how Democratic investment could put Josh Hicks across the line
Democratic Candidate Josh Hicks is leading Republican Andy Barr in KY-06, with the majority of undecided voters supporting him.
KY-06 Congressional District Survey: n = 700, Margin of Error: +/- 4%, Text to Web: 400 IVR Landline: 300
Josh Hicks is the Democratic candidate running for Congress in Kentucky’s 6th District. With limited national funding, he’s competing in an uphill battle, yet our latest poll has him leading incumbent Andy Barr by 1 point. What’s more, 53% of respondents have never heard of Hicks compared to the only 3% of respondents who have never heard of his opponent, Barr. This takeaway highlights an important opportunity for outside investment in Hicks’ race — with so little nameID and extremely high favorability ratings, he’s poised to pull off an upset in a district that eluded Democrats in 18'.
Methodology Statement
This survey was conducted on July 13th, 2020 and interviewed a total of 700 likely voter Kentuckians who are registered to vote in Kentucky’s 6th congressional district. The respondents were reached on their cell phones and landline phones via SMS text message (n=400) and Interactive Voice Response(IVR) calls (n=300) respectively. Respondents reached via SMS were asked to click on a web link to initiate the survey.
The likely voter screen excluded any registered voter who did not vote in one of the 2016, 2018, or 2019 general elections. The sample was weighted to match the composition of likely voters in the voter file by age, sex, ethnicity, party registration, census block group level of educational attainment, density, and region. Density was obtained at the census-tract level from 2010 Rural-Urban Commuting Area (RUCA) Codes issued by the U.S Department of Agriculture. The region variable divides the district into two by separating and clustering Fayette and Franklin counties, home of the two largest cities of Lexington and Frankfort respectively, into one region and classifying the remaining rural counties into the other. The margin of error at the 95% confidence interval for 700 voters is ±4%.
