April’s Advanced Stat All-Stars
We all know why the voting for the MLB All-Star game is done the way it is. The league believes that a “fan vote” will make fans more excited; more motivated to vote their players in the game. This setting often comes with flaws — making the game, that should supposedly have the best players to a vote by everyday fans, can do the exact opposite. Last year, the AL All-Star team was nearly all Kansas City Royals because their fans hit the ballot box early and often. Due to some late manipulation (it’s very possible the league interfered), the Royals only ended up with three starters, but that included Alcides Escobar, a shortstop whose numbers were far from All-Star caliber.
Are fans truly motivated to tune in to the All-Star game because they had an effect of choosing the players that are in it? It’s hard to believe they are. It’s even less likely that fans are watching the game because of the ridiculous “Home-field Advantage in the World Series” stipulation to the game. What if the setup was different? What if the All-STAR game was truly made of the best players in the game? What if instead of fans, who often have a clouded mind by their favorite team, it was experts choosing the game based on statistics?
That’s where this article comes in. I am going to do my best impersonation of a general manager who has free rein to make the best team possible choosing from any player currently in their league. Since April just ended, I am going to do this based on April statistics — and not just the normal statistics that you see on the broadcast (batting average, home runs, RBIs) but advanced statistics. With the full array of statistics at my disposal, I will be constructing the perfect roster for each team. I will also choose based on my ideal candidate for each position. I will explain each of my picks and am looking forward to the readers telling me why I’m wrong.
Without further ado, here are your April Advanced Stat All-Stars:
*Note — I am selecting starters at each position (including a designated hitter for the AL). I won’t be selecting a bench, so each club may not have a representative (which is a rule I do not dislike for the actual game). For pitchers, I will choose five starting pitchers, a set-up man, and a closer for each league.
**Note — all statistics had to be for qualified amount of plate appearances (66), or qualified amount of innings pitched (9). They are all courtesy of Fangraphs.com.
American League
First base — Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles
At first base, I am primarily looking for power, even if it sacrifices from batting average. Therefore, I am choosing Davis due to his .271 ISO and .506 SLG. The choice is over Joe Mauer despite Mauer having a much higher OBP (.453 vs .356) and also over Eric Hosmer despite him having a much higher average (.326 vs .235). Defense is something that can be sacrificed when choosing a first baseman, but Davis has been league average (0 DRS) and he’s helped because Hosmer had a down month defensively (-2 DRS). If the standard statistics still make you comfortable, Davis leads all AL first baseman in home runs and RBIs.
Second base — Logan Forsythe, Tampa Bay Rays
Here we are already with a surprising choice — there is a small chance of Forsythe making the actual All-Star game this year even if he keeps up his ridiculous numbers. At second base, defense is important and I also look for the possibility of adding a little speed. It was a tough choice of Forsythe over Jose Altuve, as these two have put themselves head and shoulders above the rest of the league at second base. Altuve is putting up the fantasy numbers (six home runs, nine stolen bases), but Forsythe is leading in OPS (1.036 vs 1.011) and wRC+ (199 vs 187). Even with Altuve’s nine stolen bases (compared to Forsythe’s three), Forsythe has a 1.1 BsR, the baserunning metric calculated by Fangraphs.com (Altuve has a -0.5). Ian Kinsler is having a solid year, specifically defensively (4 DRS) but has too much of a drop off from the offensive statistics from Forsythe.
Third base — Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
This one is fun as arguably the two best players in the American League are third basemen. Machado gets the slight edge over Josh Donaldson due to small edges in nearly every statistic. For a third baseman, I’m looking for a place to add power but defense is something that is highly appreciated. Machado hasn’t been outstanding just yet defensively (1 DRS), but anyone who has seen his highlights knows he is as good as it gets. Donaldson has more home runs and RBIs, but that could be slightly increased by being on a slightly better offense.
Shortstop — Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
At the shortstop position, I look for some speed but even more importantly, defense. Shortstop is arguably the most important defensive position on the field so I am going to put emphasis towards that. Carlos Correa has been the best offensive AL shortstop, but he has been booting the ball all month. Fangraphs has him at a -7 DRS! Bogaerts has been league average according to DRS, but has been better than that by other metrics. Bogaerts also has added five stolen bases and a 1.8 BsR. Elvis Andrus is another player who should be mentioned but poor baserunning (-2.4 BsR) brings him down a notch. One thing for sure, let’s make sure as a nation that Alcides Escobar does not make it back to the game. Escobar has been arguably the worst offensive shortstop in the AL.
Catcher — Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
For catcher, I am primarily looking for defense. Catcher defensive statistics are not mastered but from what is available, not many are better than Perez. It doesn’t hurt that Perez has added a .267 ISO, by far the highest total for AL catchers. Perez has an MLB high 11 caught stealing while only allowing one passed ball. Adding in the fact that the Royals have one of the AL’s best pitching staffs, Perez makes for a deserving AL representative.
Left field — Colby Rasmus, Houston Astros
Rasmus has one of the more interesting narratives this season as he became the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer over the offseason. The Astros may or may not have wanted or expected him to accept the QO, but they certainly are not complaining after his production from the first month of the 2016 season. Many things have gone wrong for the 2016 Astros; Colby Rasmus is not one of them. Michael Saunders is about the only competition for Rasmus at the LF position (168 wRC+ vs 176 wRC+) but Rasmus has played a much better defense. Left field isn’t a position where defense is a priority, but the difference makes up for Rasmus’s small deficit in SLG (.579 vs .581).
Center field — Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Center field, along with the shortstop position, are the most important defensive positions on the field. I want to make sure that defense takes high importance but that’s quite easy when Mike Trout is involved. Trout has been the best offensive center fielder by a long-shot. And even though Kevin Kiermaier took last year’s Gold Glove away from Trout, the Angels center fielder has even outplayed Kiermaier this year in the field, according to most metrics. Kiermaier has increased his offensive play and should surely be mentioned here, but Trout retains his throne for the first month of the 2016 season as the AL’s best center fielder.
Right field — Adam Eaton, Chicago White Sox
Normally I would say I want more power from my right field position, as I do from all of my corner positions. However, Eaton deserves to be on this team (and don’t call me biased). He’s been the most important position player on the American League’s best team and leads all of baseball in bWAR. The other attribute I am looking for in an ideal right fielder is a strong arm, and Eaton leads all of baseball with six outfield assists. His offensive numbers are outmatched by many right fielders, most notably Mark Trumbo and Jose Bautista, but Eaton gets my selection.
Designated hitter — David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
I don’t like when players get an All-Star bid just due to their legacy, specifically starting spots. This year though, it works perfectly. Ortiz has had an amazing April on the beginning of his farewell tour. Even though Victor Martinez is putting up nearly identical numbers, the sentimental part of me has to give Ortiz the nod.
Of course I have to set my lineup as well.
1 — Logan Forsythe (R) — Forsythe has the highest OBP on this squad and although he has a higher K% (21.3 percent), he also has a decent BB% (11.7 percent). His speed, although not necessary, fits in nice for the leadoff spot for the big boppers behind him.
2 — Manny Machado (R) — I enjoy that the Orioles hit Machado second, so why would I go a different direction?
3 — David Ortiz (L) — Ortiz should have plenty of RBI opportunities with these two in front of him. Ortiz leads this team in OPS.
4 — Mike Trout (R) — Some may question why I have Trout behind Ortiz but I follow The Book pretty closely and believe that the fourth spot has more opportunities for run production. I think Machado has earned the more important second spot, but Trout will work well as the cleanup man.
5 — Colby Rasmus (L) — The alternating of lefty/righty/lefty is something I prefer to have in my heart of the order. Rasmus leads the team in several of the power categories. If there are runners on base, which there surely will often be, Rasmus will be ready for his opportunity.
6 — Chris Davis (L) — After Rasmus hits, the bases may be empty but Davis shouldn’t be bothered. Solo home runs are still pretty.
7 — Xander Bogaerts (R) — At the seventh spot, I like to turn my lineup over. Bogaerts will provide speed (five stolen bases is a team-high) and is likely to go first to third or score from second for the singles hitters behind him.
8 — Adam Eaton (L) — Eaton can provide a multitude of options from the eighth spot, including using the bunt to get on base.
9 — Salvador Perez (R) — Perez’s defense is his value to the team but we’re talking about a World Series MVP as my number nine hitter. I think I’ll be ok.
Starting rotation
Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
That’s right; Quintana gets the first spot in my rotation for his April numbers. His HR/9 rate — oh, it’s only zero. Quintana hasn’t allowed a home run yet this season. He leads all of the American League in FIP with a dazzling 1.75. Amazingly, he’s been unlucky in BABIP with .321, meaning he could actually get better.
Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
Walker gets included due to his second place figure in FIP (2.06), the sixth lowest WHIP (0.96), and the third lowest BB/9 in the AL (1.08).
Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
Kluber would be unlikely to be selected to any All-Star team with a 1–3 record and a 4.24 ERA in April. But that’s why this is the Advanced Stat All-Star team. Kluber has the fifth lowest FIP (2.68), the 16thhighest K/9 (9.26), and the fifth lowest BB/9 in the AL (1.32).
David Price, Boston Red Sox
Doubling down with Price to show how little the common stats show about a player’s performance. Price has a 5.76 ERA but has a 2.38 FIP. He has the highest swinging strike percentage in the AL (15.9 percent). He pairs that with the lowest contact rate in the league (65.8 percent). Price has gotten “lucky” with a 3–0 record this April but that’s only because his earned runs have been unlucky.
Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
Quintana takes the top prize but that doesn’t mean his teammate shouldn’t be included as well. Sale has the lowest WHIP in the AL (0.68) and is averaging the most innings per start (7.6). His strikeout numbers are down but that’s because he’s baffling hitters by letting them hit into outs.
Set-up man — Justin Wilson, Detroit Tigers
Wilson leads all of baseball with eight holds. His 0.9 FIP is microscopic. He faced 37 batters in April, striking out 14 while only allowing seven hits.
Closer — Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Miller was thought to possibly miss the beginning of the season due to an injury to his non-pitching hand. Thankfully for all baseball fans, he has not missed any time. He has a negative FIP (-0.27). His swinging strike percentage is 17.5. He has not allowed a run, a home run, or even a walk — enough said.
National League
First base — Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
Rizzo didn’t have a high batting average in April, but when he did get hits they were productive. He still led all first basemen with a 149 wRC+, narrowly usurping Brandon Belt (146) and Paul Goldschmidt (141). Rizzo also played an above average defense at first base (2 DRS). His ISO of .359 exemplifies the month he has had — when he has hit the ball, he has hit it hard and far.
Second base — Daniel Murphy, Washington Nationals
This battle came down between Murphy and his replacement on the New York Mets, Neil Walker. I value defense and baserunning at the second base position. Murphy, well known for his defensive gaffes in the playoffs last season, has defended well this season. His baserunning has been better than Walker’s (0.6 vs -0.9) which may give him the slightest of an edge. Despite Walker’s nine home runs, Murphy still leads him in OPS (1.013 vs .962).
Third base — Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
I am not sure if there’s a bigger runaway than Arenado at third. Martin Prado has put together a nice month but with his zero home runs (compared to Arenado’s 10), I can’t have that at my third base position. Plus, Arenado has played amazing defense (7 DRS). Arenado’s numbers jump off the page including a .374 ISO and a 1.036 OPS.
Shortstop — Aledmys Diaz, St. Louis Cardinals
Diaz just made it over the minimum plate appearances to become qualified which puts him over Opening Week darling, Trevor Story. Diaz has the highest wRC+ (213) of anyone in baseball. Although I want defense out of my shortstop position, the offense is impossible to ignore. Diaz hasn’t played horrible defense. Zach Cozart has been exceptional at both the plate and in the field, but I’m still going to give the surprising Diaz the nod. Hopefully Arenado can cover some of Diaz’s ground on the left side of the infield.
Catcher — Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks
This is one of the toughest decisions in all I made. It’s a three horse catcher race in the NL between Yadier Molina, Francisco Cervelli, and Castillo. I ended up choosing Castillo due to his success rate of throwing out baserunners (4 of 13), lack of passed balls (1), and the highest OPS of the three (.899).
Left field — Michael Conforto, New York Mets
Left field in the National League hasn’t been a great source of power as Conforto’s .676 SLG is the highest by nearly 100 points. This isn’t as quite of a landslide as third base, asChristian Yelich at least throws his hat into the ring with a .471 OBP, but it’s not a particularly close battle.
Center field — Dexter Fowler, Chicago Cubs
Fowler joins his teammate Rizzo on this squad with fantastic numbers of his own. He has been great at the plate (1.087 OPS, 186 wRC+), wonderful in the field (2 DRS), and outstanding on the base paths (1.7 BsR). Yoenis Cespedes’ power (.382) puts him in the race but fielding is so important for a center fielder. Odubel Herrera has been better in the field and his OBP is great (.462)…until you compare it to Fowler’s (.474).
Right field — Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
If not for Diaz’s ridiculous start, and a bit of a slow finish for Harper, he’d have the highest SLG in the majors. His .714 SLG is still nothing to ignore. Harper has also played a great right field (3 DRS). In other years, Giancarlo Stanton and Gregory Polanco’s numbers would be worthy of an All-Star level but not against the reigning NL MVP.
Lineup
1 — Dexter Fowler (S) — My lineup doesn’t have much speed outside Fowler but that along with his great OBP make him a fantastic leadoff man, just as he has provided for the Cubs this season.
2 — Michael Conforto (L) — Conforto has been moving up the Mets lineup throughout the season as Manager Terry Collins becomes more comfortable with him playing against all pitching. I am going to immediately put Conforto in my most important position. Diaz has the best wRC+ on the club but excuse me if I’m going to go with the proven prospect over the latest find from the Cardinals.
3 — Anthony Rizzo (L) — Rizzo has been an RBI machine and despite a lower OBP than some of the other players on the team, I’d like to get him as many at-bats as possible.
4 — Bryce Harper (L) — I dislike hitting three lefties in a row but my NL lineup is very left-handed heavy. Besides, putting these three in consecutive order is going to wreak havoc no matter who the pitcher is.
5 — Nolan Arenado (R) — Arenado has one of the lowest OBPs on the team but his SLG is too high to put him far down the lineup.
6 — Daniel Murphy (L) — I’ll do some alternating handedness further down the order and hope that Murphy’s .433 OBP is ready to start up the bottom half of the lineup.
7 — Aledmys Diaz (R) — This is basically me admitting I’m not fully believing Diaz, but if his 1.185 OPS can continue, I’ll have a pretty amazing number seven hitter.
8 — Wellington Castillo (R) — Castillo has had a very solid offensive season, but he is here for defense and it’s hard to compare his numbers to the rest of the lineup. He’ll hit eighth and hopefully be able to clean up the bases before the pitcher position.
Starting Rotation
Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
12.83 K/9 (1st), 1.35 BB/9 (4th), 0.77 FIP (1st), 16.6 percent swinging strike (1st). Those numbers make it hard to argue that Syndergaard isn’t worthy of the top spot in the rotation.
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
It’s not bad when you have a guy with a no-hitter in the month as the number two in the rotation. Arrieta’s walks are ultimately what may have held him out of the top spot, but despite those he still had the lowest WHIP (0.78) in the league.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
On the other hand Kershaw hasn’t allowed barely any walks (0.73 BB/9), but has been slightly more hittable, although that number is still minute (0.81 WHIP).
Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
Strasburg’s April had the third lowest FIP in the NL. All of his peripherals are outstanding including 10 K/9 and 2 BB/9.
Vincent Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies need a representative from a pitching staff that’s been surprisingly outstanding in April. It was between him and teammate Aaron Nola but his complete game shutout 16 K performance against the Padres this season was a work of art. It is almost certainly his peak outing, maybe of his career, but his recognition is earned.
Set-up man — Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies get a little more love as Neris has the highest swinging strike percentage in the NL (22.3 percent). He is striking out 14.44 per nine with a 1.8 FIP.
Closer — Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
No closer is really putting up a battle for this spot in the National League. This is not to take anything away from Jansen — he has a 1.09 FIP with a 0.84 BB/9 and a WHIP of 0.56.
That’s April’s Advanced Stat All-Stars. Which league would you choose if they went head to head?
Originally published at www.baseballessential.com/news/2016/05/06/aprils-advanced-stat-stars/ on May 6, 2016.
