As I am sure is the case with many readers, I find it almost impossible to tear myself away from the minute-by-minute developments in the present pandemic. But I think the historical work I have done on markets over the last ten years may be of some use in providing perspective to the second-order problems we are about to face. Since 2015, I have been arguing that history strongly suggests an imminent services-centered depression that would last until about 2030 and threaten to undo much of the progress we have made over the last century.

In January 2015, I wrote,

John Overstreet

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