As I am sure is the case with many readers, I find it almost impossible to tear myself away from the minute-by-minute developments in the present pandemic. But I think the historical work I have done on markets over the last ten years may be of some use in providing perspective to the second-order problems we are about to face. Since 2015, I have been arguing that history strongly suggests an imminent services-centered depression that would last until about 2030 and threaten to undo much of the progress we have made over the last century.
In January 2015, I wrote,
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- Blue dye was apparently only used on the least violent of the combatants on August 31.
- The blue dye was apparently only used around the PLA Central Barracks.
- I speculate blue dye was used specifically to target protesters who got near PLA barracks.
- The Chinese government is loath to get into a direct confrontation with protesters but is increasingly posturing itself for such a possibility.
The day after Hong Kong’s often violent 831 protests, I went back to the places along the route of the protests around Central Hong Kong and I noticed some things that I thought were peculiar…
- After an extended confrontation between riot police and protesters at government headquarters, police began pushing protesters out of the area.
- A staggered retreat towards the east ensued.
- Police employed teargas, water cannons, helicopters, and batons; protesters employed bricks, Molotov cocktails, laser pointers, and barricades.
- Once remaining protesters were cornered, they slipped away through the MTR subway system.
- The day was violent and potentially dangerous but seemed to pass without serious injury.
As I mentioned in Part I, once I reached the government headquarters around 5:30PM, the situation became more confusing and fluid due to the increasingly violent situation. Call it…
- Permits to protest were denied by police and “shopping” was not to be accepted as an excuse to be in the area.
- Crowds were smaller but more intense.
- On the way to the Government Complex, helicopters buzzed overhead and crowds occasionally and briefly panicked.
When I arrived in Hong Kong Saturday morning, like two weeks prior on the 818 rally, black shirts were hurrying their way through the MTR subway system on their way to Hong Kong Island, to a rally that, unlike August 18th's, had been banned by authorities. …
- Hong Kong protesters have been dogged but pragmatic.
- Beijing has little to gain from using military force to conquer a city it already occupies.
- There is room for a creative solution on Beijing’s part to resolve the current impasse.
The first live rounds of ammunition were fired during this week’s latest round of violent clashes between anti-government protesters and Hong Kong police. Extending the logic of their “eye for an eye” mantra, the young self-described revolutionaries began chopping down alleged police surveillance cameras instead of just temporarily blinding them with laser pointers. Petrol bombs were allegedly thrown at police. Tear…
- Hong Kong protests were massive and overwhelmingly peaceful.
- More radical protesters taunted soldiers patrolling the People’s Liberation Army garrison
- There is a hardcore element that will continue to seek violent provocation.
- There appears to a unspoken consensus between Beijing, the SAR government, and protesters (except some radicals) to contain the conflict to a battle between the SAR government and protesters.
After the anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill, or anti-ELAB, protesters took over the Hong Kong airport a week ago, it seemed that the controversy there had reached an inflection point, and I decided to visit the city to get a feel…
