Cryptoassets could correct 75% and still be in a bull market

A few weeks ago I was looking at cryptoasset charts with Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, when she noted something that took me by surprise. Peering closely at a chart she said, “We could fall to $15 billion and still be in a long-term bull market.” The $15 billion was in reference to the peak aggregate network value of cryptoassets in 2013, a blip that had caught her interest (screenshot from CoinMarketCap.com).

That “blip” is what everyone used to refer to as the “big bubble.” It was a high point for cryptoassets when many enthusiastically claimed we were already well on our way to the moon. The recent sentiment in the markets and surge of mainstream interest has been eerily similar to that time — crypto is cool again.

Yet, once the last moon had been claimed in 2013, the aggregate network value of cryptoassets proceeded to lose greater than 75% in value before bottoming in January 2015, shaking out weak holders in the interim and deflating the spirits of many a basement millionaire. That was not a fun time, and to make it worse the “blockchain not bitcoin” clamor was simultaneously rising to a roar. By the time bitcoin bottomed below $200 in January 2015, everyone wanted to puke, as shown below (emoji is my own).

It then took cryptoassets 3 years to convincingly surpass that late 2013 high, which we did in late 2016. Clearly, cryptoasset enthusiasm in 2016 and particularly post March 10th, 2017, has taken us far beyond breaking 2013 highs, pushing the market to a new all time high of roughly $115 billion in late June. It was around this time that Cathie made her observation, which was understandably unsettling at the time. But why does $15 billion matter?

One of the definitions of an uptrend for an asset is “higher highs and higher lows,” while for a downtrend it’s “lower highs and lower lows.” For technical trends, however, the time frame with which you choose to look at the charts makes all the difference. For example, looking at the below chart over the last month the picture is not a pretty one, with “lower highs and lower lows,” signaling a downtrend.

But this is crypto — unless you’re a day trader or professional asset manager, a month-long horizon is irrelevant, even distracting, from the long term vision. I’ve recently been reading Carlota Perez’s, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital, and firmly believe that blockchains will be the base layer for a new techno-economic paradigm. The current incarnation of the web is hitting the “maturity” stage, concurrent with cryptoasset “irruption.”

As Carlota points out, “the sequence technological revolution — financial bubble — collapse — golden age — political unrest recurs about every half century.” If you believe what I believe regarding blockchains & cryptoassets, then you’re in it for the long haul… a half century long haul, of which one month will encompass 0.167%.

But I digress: our last major all time high on a long-term time horizon — long for crypto, at least — was $15 billion. We could fall all the way back to that aggregate network value. In fact, we could fall further, as following the definition of an uptrend we would just want to avoid falling below the previous low, which was around $4 billion. Does that happen? Probably not. But even if it did, as Cathie noted, we would still be in a bull market.