Are your crypto investment goals realistic?
A while ago, I started to invest small sums in crypto currencies. Seeing it grow fast is exciting, so exciting that I started to dream big. I imagined turning that small investment in a number trailed by different (too many) zeroes.
As fantastic as it is to dream big, I wanted to understand how realistic it was to achieve these targets. What are the tools that can help us?
There’s a way to visualise how the world would look like in case your investements hit your growth targets. It’s simple, not rocket science, but it is still a useful exercise.
Let’s say you have bought a 1000 Stellar’s Lumens XLM, which are currently worth $197.6. Then, let’s say I (enthusiastically) expect this investment to be worth $100,000 in few years. This would mean a growth if 505 times. If it becomes reality, the Market cap of Stellar would be about $1.9 trillions.
It sounds big, but everything in crypto sounds big. So, I still don’t know if this is even the realm of “possible” outcomes.
Let’s then compare the future Stellar market cap with the one of the current top currencies. We discover that it would be 17 times Bitcoin and 81 times Ethereum’s current market caps. It means that Stellar currency, currently ranked no. 6, with a market cap which is 3% of Bitcoin’s, will become 17 times bigger than it one day.
Audacious…
Sure, Stellar could steal market share to other currencies. But let’s suppose for a moment the entire market grows 505 times. This would be a $56 trillions which is 7 times the worldwide Gold Reserves value ($8 trillions).
We expect the entire market to grow, but this much? It is a really bold target. Maybe, it’s better to lower our expectations.
Let me know how you would improve this technique.
PS: I am building a tool to help make this kind of analyses. It’s called Decryptoray and it has a investment growth goals analysis. Give it a try!
