A Happy Warrior to Unite a Fractured Republican Party
Lightning could strike but watching the second GOP debate made one thing clear to me.
While Nikki Haley was feisty and Governor DeSantis was aggressive, none of the seven candidates on that stage seem likely to unite a fractured GOP coalition, win big in 2024, and then lead America with a steady hand.
Which GOP candidate has the best chance to win the White House and build a durable, governing majority in 2024 and 2028? Not to mention having the leadership skills and temperament to secure peace and prosperity during this dangerous age of US-China rivalry.
Donald Trump has a lock on his base but a decisive Republican victory in 2024 requires going well beyond the party’s base. The eventual GOP nominee needs to attract rather than push away traditional Republicans. Just 74% of Republicans in a recent poll said they would support him if he was their nominee in a general election, 20 points worse than his performance in the 2020 election.
In addition, a GOP nominee would also need to garner a majority of the huge and crucial bloc of independent voters — those not registered as either Republicans or Democrats.
This will require a different sort of Republican, and this brings me to Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, who is getting more and more attention.
In 2021, he defeated a well-known Democrat by running on a right-center platform focused on the economy, public safety, education, and personal freedoms.
Since taking office, Governor Youngkin’s positive press clipping have been piling up
Wanting to see him in action so this week I attended a reception for Virginia State Senate Republican candidate Tara Durant at which the energetic and conservative Governor Youngkin showed up with a full-throated endorsement.
Seeing is believing. Governor Youngkin is a happy warrior with a conservative kitchen table message delivered in a friendly but determined tone. His remarks threaded the needle with both red meat and roasted chicken that appeals to a range of Republican voters as well as persuadable independents.
This is important because Independent Republican private polls finds that Americans broadly seek strengthening parental rights in education, as well as being tough on crime, taxes, and excessive federal government spending and debt.
President Biden and Democrats certainly would have their hands full with Governor Youngkin as an opponent because he is conservative yet likable, the right age, and determined to push his agenda forward. His ranking in Virginia is 57% approval, 32% disapproval. This is all the more impressive in a blue state like Virginia that no Republican presidential candidate has won since 2004.
Youngkin has been so far non-committal regarding a presidential run, simply pointing to the importance of the approaching state elections in Virginia that could expand GOP power. This would be not only good for Virginia, but it would also propel Governor Youngkin into the national spotlight.
This brings me to what I refer to as “Independent Republicans” — independents persuadable to vote for Republican candidates in primaries and general elections.
Why are independents so important?
First, there are a lot of them. According to recent Gallup polling, 33% of voters nationwide identified as Republicans, 29% as Democrats and 35% as independents. Also, keep in mind that 19 states have open presidential primaries whereby independents can choose to participate in either the Republican or Democratic primary.
By nature, they’re independent thinkers, do not kowtow to GOP kingmakers, yearn for a sense of clear direction, and are not afraid to buck the establishment line.
In 2020, then candidate Biden beat President Trump amongst independents by a big margin and in 2018, 54% of independents voted Democrat and only 42% voted Republican according to CNN exit polling.
Independent Republicans can be more conservative than GOP party leaders on key issues like federal spending, debt, and foreign policy. They are also fed up with Congress not confronting problems and instead just kicking the can down the road.
The GOP must also capture the high ground of the growing anxiety regarding the tense superpower rivalry between China and the United States which will play out over this decade and beyond.
Going forward, GOP candidates should also follow a more ambitious strategy of going after both its base and independent voters in both primaries and the general election. We need to work hard to fight for and persuade every independent voter to join the grand big-tent GOP coalition.
Having a candidate like Governor Youngkin at the top of the ticket will be critical in building a durable, governing GOP majority in 2024 and the rest of this decade.
Carl T. Delfeld is the co-founder of the Independent Republican and Hay Seward Initiative, and author of Domino: Seven Trends Could Break China, and most recently, Power Rivals: America and China’s Superpower Struggle.
