Opportunity Vacuum Framework — How to define Innovation
This article was originally published on LinkedIn on February 7, 2020. Migrated to Medium and edited on September 2022. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/opportunity-vacuum-framework-part-12-role-innovation-cesar-miguel/
Trying to explain the role of an innovation department, I realised that it might be interesting to set up some basics on an Innovation Framework… brace yourselves ;-)
We are going to stick to a pretty basic definition of innovation:
Innovation = New doable idea or technology + viable at scale + accepted & used
We have 3 notions in there… One framework that stands out when creating or even defining the context for innovation is the Opportunity Vacuum framework. If you want to learn more, I suggest you read the published article from Patrick Planing, “Origin of innovation”.
Following the metaphor of vacuum on Earth (an unstable state that is quickly filled my matter), the opportunity vacuum framework aims at defining the conditions that allow and inevitably attract innovation.
THE ADJACENT POSSIBLE (CREATIVITY AND TECHNOLOGY)
The adjacent possible concept comes directly from biology and the theories of evolution. Evolution always searches for spaces of possibilities: creating, evolving and combining.
In “Genius of the Tinkerer”, Steven Johnson writes “The secret to innovation is combining odds and ends”. And his definition for the adjacent possible is both spot-on and poetic:
The adjacent possible is a kind of shadow future, hovering on the edges of the present state of things, a map of all the ways in which the present can reinvent itself
The adjacent possible is the future of technology, the next step to what is going to happen (so there is a notion of time/future) and at the same time the limit of what’s possible (so a notion of boundary). The interesting point is that while finite by nature, it is ever expanding.
Ok, that was borderline philosophical… Let’s come back to this concept of expansion. How does the body of knowledge grow? Consider the efforts from Research & Development: improving/evolving processes (A to A’ to A’’…), new discoveries (B) and best of all, combining existing to create something new (A’+B=C). This is the body of knowledge (green), what has been known and used until now.
The adjacent possible (yellow) is exactly that space of possibilities that opens up at each iteration, at each development . Each new technology opens the adjacent possible for new technologies based on it, hence the ever expansion through new combinations. Here is an example: in 2007 the latest advances in touch screens, cameras, and phones created the adjacent possible of the « smartphone ». Apple’s iPhone could not have happened decades before, technology was not there yet and once the smartphone appeared, new possibilities emerged : mobile payment, mobile social networks, neo banking….
Beyond the adjacent possible is the impossible space (red), we can find theory (F) (that we might think will get into the adjacent possible in the future) and beyond that, science fiction (G).
ADJACENT VIABLE (ECONOMY AND BUSINESS MODEL)
Just because something is feasible (in the adjacent possible), it doesn’t mean it is viable or sustainable. The adjacent viable is the economic side to the technological side of the adjacent possible. It is the space of predicted economic viability (and let me insist on the “predicted”).
We know what is economically viable today, the adjacent viable is what we predict will be viable in the short future (but might not be right now).
And you may wonder: how do we make such predictions? Take for example Moore’s law or any similar technology progression law. Although the accuracy can be challenged, we can estimate patterns in technology availability or cost reduction over time.
Consider the example of Netflix. When they started doing business, Netflix was sending DVD copies by mail. Storage cost were high and the bandwidth cost at the time was too high for an affordable streaming service. Yet, they could project on the dramatic decrease in storage cost and the increase of bandwidth in the short term (ADSL, optic fibre, 4G..), both allowing the streaming service that we have today…
ADJACENT ACCEPTABLE (USER DEMAND AND EXPERIENCE)
We have the technology side, the economic side, we are missing one main component: the user!
I am certain that at this point you are well aware of Roger’s diffusion process for the adoption of new innovations.
What does this model mean? There is a notion of compatibility of any new idea with the existing behaviour and what is considered socially acceptable.
The adjacent acceptable is the space of innovators and very early adopters. It reflects the capacity to predict future mass adoption. Although mass adoption is not guaranteed, notions like “observability” of the invention (how much you see others using it) are critical to make sure it happens.
THE ROLE OF AN INNOVATION TEAM IS TO CREATE THE OPPORTUNITY VACUUM
The role of an innovation lab, team or department (it all depends on the means or priority the company gives to innovation) is to explore the 3 adjacents. The Opportunity Vacuum occurs when the 3 meet and innovation is inevitably drawn to this space of new ideas and technologies, viable solutions and user acceptance & adoption.
The innovation team’s role is to steer the company towards the opportunity vacuum so that Innovation happens organically within.
Ok, this is the what, but not the how…
How do we ensure this opportunity vacuum is created? What do we do to explore these adjacents? What kind of profiles do we need? That’s something for another article 😉
I hope you liked the article and learned something new. If you did, do not hesitate to follow, re-share, knowledge is most useful when shared. ;-)
