An Analysis of Toy Fads
Fidget Spinners are the Biggest Fad Toy of this Millennium by Far
The sudden, unforeseen explosion in popularity of a peculiar children’s toy, which happens from time to time, is a fascinating phenomenon because it invites perplexing questions about the origins, growth, and decline of toy fads. How does a children’s toy become viral, why does it spread, and how long does its popularity last? The latest product to enjoy such growth, the Fidget Spinner, has me thinking about these questions. In this article, I’ll explore toy fads.
Using Google Trends, we can look at interest in various fad toys over time. This data will show us exactly when the trend started, how quickly it grew, and when it died down. I’ve picked out a few of the biggest toy crazes from the last decade or so to focus on. These toys are Silly Banz, Zhu Zhu Pets, Webkinz, and Tickle Me Elmo - and of course I’ll also be discussing the nascent popularity of Fidget Spinners.
Let’s start by surveying the search interest for the toys from 2004 to now (May 2017) to see what we can discover about the inexplicable intensity of the spread of some toys.
Silly Bandz
Originally created in Japan as a design project meant to raise awareness about the environmental impact of throwing away rubber bands, the concept of rubber bands shaped like animals was later turned into a product for children, Silly Bandz. The silicone rubber bands would be worn as bracelets and were in vouge with middle schoolers across the country throughout 2010. Here’s the graph of search interest in ‘Silly Bandz’ over time:
That first modest bump occurs in December 2009, and interest begins in earnest in March of 2010, dying off by February 2011 — an 11 month lifespan.
The most interesting part of this lifecycle is the early growth. I’ve graphed interest in Silly Bandz from October 2009 to May 2010, the period from just before the first minor bump to right at the peak of popularity. Google Trends also lets us view interest by state. We can see that interest in Silly Bandz during the original growth is highly geographic. Alabama and Mississippi have the most interest by far, which is very interesting because Silly Bandz were first ever sold at a toy store in Birmingham, Alabama. This shows that Google Trends interest can help us locate the epicenter of a toy fad. I’ve animated the search volume for ‘Silly Bandz’ by state.
This image shows how interest in Silly Bandz starts in Alabama and spreads outwards, gradually reaching more distant states.
Zhu Zhu Pets
These hamster toys first caught on in September of 2009 and reached their peak popularity three months later. By the next month, January 2010, interest in Zhu Zhu Pets was at only 14% of what interest was at the peak. However, the toy remained somewhat prominent for quite a while after the original enthusiasm had diminished, enjoying successively weaker holiday bumps in search volume in the December months of 2010 through 2013.
This graph differs from the Silly Bandz graph in that, though the original rates of growth were comparable. Zhu Zhu Pets experienced a precipitous fall in interest after December whereas Silly Bandz had more staying power. I think that this is due to a few reasons. First, the growth of Silly Bandz seems to have been much more organic, having started at a specialty toy store in Alabama, spreading throughout the south and up the east coast — growing from there. This may have resulted in the more gradual decline because as the toy faded from popularity in one location, it was just catching on in another. Conversely, Zhu Zhu Pets were the subject of a large, national television ad campaign and experienced uniform interest nationwide.
Two other interesting factors are the price point and use case of the toys. While a large pack of Silly Bandz could be purchased for a few dollars, Zhu Zhu Pets were more expensive. The battery powered hamsters were $10 each, $60 during the shortages, and required accessories such as a play wheel, home, and so on in order for children to get the most out of the toy. A ‘Zhu Zhu Pets Hamster House Starter Kit’ currently retails for $34. Given that the toys experienced their highest volume of search interest in December, it seems as though this higher-priced item was a popular Christmas gift but that the price point reduced followup trips to Toy R’ Us for most parents. The cheaper Silly Bandz, however, were commonly lost, traded, and broken, but easily and frequently replaced.
Webkinz
Webkinz are plush toy animals that include a code which grants access to an online game where the user can play with their stuffed animal. The peak of Webkinz interest occurred in December of 2007. Growth first began at the end of 2006, around October, and search volume for the toy finally died off in 2012. That’s an impressive lifespan of five years and seven months. Their first television commercial aired in 2011.
Of all the fad toys that we’ll look at, Webkinz enjoyed the most protracted popularity, but Google Trends search volume may be somewhat inflated for Webkinz due to the online element of the toy. Much of the enjoyment that a child would receive from the toy would come from the online experience, and many children, having already purchased a Webkinz plush, would likely search Google for ‘Webkinz’ to find the website and to interact with their digital plush toy. Therefore, much of the search interest may be coming from children searching for the Webkinz website, who will necessarily have already purchased a toy, rather than from parents interested in buying one for their children. This effect may give the impression of greater and longer lasting interest in purchasing the toy than there really was.
Tickle Me Elmo
Famous as the subject of one of the most pronounced shortages in recent toy fad memory, Tickle Me Elmo retailed for $30 but was sold for as much as $1,500 by scalpers on the secondary market at the height of its popularity. The original Tickle Me Elmo craze was in 1996, but ten years later an updated version of the toy was released by Tyco. This new version was $40 and didn’t suffer the same shortage that its predecessor did.
Interested peaked in September of 2006, completely dropping off after December. Interest subsequently flat lined, though there is a small increase in search volume each December for the holidays.
Fidget Spinners
Armed with historical examples of fad toys, we are now prepared to examine the fidget spinner, a burgeoning trend worldwide.
There was very low intensity interest in fidget spinners, at 1% of the peak interest or less, since as early as November of 2016. Interest began to pick up slightly from late January 2017 to mid April, though search volume was still at less than 5% of what it is today, its current peak. From mid April, growth began in earnest, bringing us to a current high in mid May of 2017.
This graph of Google Trends interest in fidget spinners from the last twelve months shows unprecedented interest, though the rate of growth has begun to decline. It appears that very soon, some would say mercifully, fidget spinners will join the ranks of history’s great fad toys in dresser drawers and closets around the world. This is a valuable insight to have, and such an analysis would certainly have been useful for Beanie Baby investors, secondary sellers who hopped on what may have been the greatest toy manias of all time — unfortunately it occurred further back than Google Trends data is available.
Youtube search interest is equivalent to Google search interest, though what people search for differs. People are mostly searching for places to buy fidget spinners when searching for them on Google. The top related search term provided by Google Trends is ‘amazon fidget spinner.’ Others include ‘walmart fidget spinner,’ ‘ebay fidget spinner,’ and ‘buy fidget spinner.’ With respect to Youtube, top related searches include ‘fidget spinner tricks,’ ‘how to fidget spinner,’ ‘make fidget spinner,’ and ‘diy fidget spinner.’
Comparative Interest
So, how does the fidget spinner compare to the fad toys of recent years? Below is the graph of search interest of all five toys that we’ve examined.
On the far right is the fidget spinner, a fad which continues to grow. Though it has not yet reached its peak, it already dwarfs all the rest. Webkinz are the second highest, towering over Silly Bandz, Zhu Zhu Pets, and Tickle Me Elmo. This shows that even only a few weeks into the growth in popularity of the Fidget Spinner, it has far surpassed its peers, making it certainly, and by a wide margin, the biggest toy fad of this millennium so far.