Verlander/Avila and the Cubs Plan Going Forward

Twitter is inundated these days with rumors about the Cubs pursuit of Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander and catcher Alex Avila. You’d figure that most teams would line up their best prospects when a chance at getting a guy eight months removed from finishing second in the Cy Young along with a 30-year old catcher sporting an OPS over .880. But the Cubs don’t seem that anxious in making a deal happen with the Tigers, and I don’t blame them.
We’ll start with the Cubs trading for Avila since that one is easier to shoot down. Willson Contreras has been on fire since the All-Star break and is all of the sudden ranked second in MLB to Bustery Posey in fWAR in 2017. Avila is tied for fifth himself, but nearly all of his value is tied to his bat. Of the 84 catchers that have played in the majors this season, Avila ranks 76th according to Baseball Prospectus when it comes to his combination of pitch framing, blocking, and controlling the running game.
The Cubs don’t need someone to push Contreras; they need a veteran that will caddie for him on the day or two he needs off every week. Victor Caratini is an excellent prospect, but he needs to be playing every day in AAA to continue developing.
Chicago wants a good defender who can help the pitching staff and potentially help Contreras get better in areas of his game where he’s too jumpy. Avila isn’t that guy, and since he’s playing so well at such a low salary (he’s owed less than $1MM for the remainder of the season), the Tigers will want a solid prospect or two in return. The Cubs have heavily depleted their farm system the past two years through callups and trades for Aroldis Chapman and Jose Quintana. They aren’t looking to give up major prospect capital for someone they intend on playing 25 games the remainder of the year.
So what catcher should the Cubs pursue? We’ll get back to that in a minute.
Did Verlander deserve the AL Cy Young last season? With an fWAR even with Rick Porcello (who won) and 65 more strikeouts in just four additional innings, you could make a good case. But we’re here to decide if the Cubs should trade for 2.33(+) years of a guy that hasn’t pitched nearly that well in 2017.
The numbers aren’t great. A 1.9 fWAR, 4.50 ERA, 4.12 FIP, and the highest walk rate of his career (4.14 per nine) are all working against him. As are the dollar amounts he’s due: $9.3MM to finish 2017, and $28MM in each of 2018 and 2019 (along with a $22MM vesting option in 2020 if he finishes in the top-5 of Cy voting in 2019).
If the Cubs were interested at that price, they realistically wouldn’t have to include more than a C-level prospect to acquire Verlander. And if the asking price involved a top-100 MLB prospect, the conversation ends. If the Tigers were willing to throw in money to get a better prospect, say for instance, they paid half the remaining salary, now you’ve got an interesting scenario. Do the Cubs trade a Jeimer Candelario-type prospect for the right to pay Verlander $14MM for his age 35 and 36 seasons?
If the front office’s entire focus was on this season, they’d probably pull the trigger on a Candelario-plus deal to bring Verlander to Chicago. But would he even start in a playoff series for the Cubs? Jon Lester and Jose Quintana would be starting games one and two for sure. Jake Arrieta has had a weird statistical season, but a 2.25 ERA in July (with much lower K and BB rates during that span) would probably get him the game three start.
Kyle Hendricks is the true unknown here. He’s just returning from an injury and had a six start stretch before hitting the DL where he had a 1.96 ERA and 30 K’s in 36.2 innings. But the notoriously walk-stingy righty also allowed 11 walks during that period and his velocity is off by over 2 MPH from an already light 88 last season.
So if he’s not guaranteed a spot in the playoff rotation, does he fit into long term plans? The Cubs are trying to play the long game as well, and that involves looking at the Cubs salary and roster construction situation.
The Cubs starting rotation for 2018 currently looks like this:
Jon Lester
Jose Quintana
Kyle Hendricks
??
??
Lester and Quintana are locks at 1/2 (though you’d throw Hendricks between them to split the lefties), but Jake Arrieta and John Lackey are both free agents (and Lackey would get designated for assignment in any Verlander scenario) who the Cubs are unlikely to retain. Hendricks velocity and walk issues draw into question his long term effectiveness and is not something the Cubs can bank on — though his salary is low enough where you can plug it into your rotation plans safely so long as it’s in the 4/5 slot.
Quintana is in his prime, and though Lester shows no signs of slowing down, he turns 34 in January with three more guaranteed years on his contract with a mutual option for a fourth that guarantees based on innings pitched. It’s the scary part of his contract — the part teams gulp at but know they have to pay to acquire top talent these days.
Adding the older Verlander to that mix doesn’t make the rotation significantly less risky, especially if you’re paying him $14MM each year. The Cubs are dropping more than $55MM in salaries with Arrieta, Lackey, Brett Anderson, Koji Uehara, and Miguel Montero either already gone or highly unlikely to return. They may want to pay Wade Davis (or find a pair of replacements) to stick around at approximately $14MM per season, which leaves the team approximately $40–45MM of money to go after a younger pitcher (or two) if they intend on keeping the payroll flat.
So who’s available this offseason that could make an impact?
Yu Darvish (31)
Masahiro Tanaka (28) opt-out
Johnny Cueto (32) opt-out
Shohei Otani (2018)
Lance Lynn (31)
Though Darvish, Tanaka, and Cueto aren’t pitching especially well (which may mean Tanaka and Cueto don’t exercise their options), any of these guys between $14MM and $20MM are better bets considering their age than Verlander. It makes sense to pair up one of these guys with the aging Lester than to add more miles to a risky rotation.
Whether the Cubs pursue a rental starter or not, they’re still in need of a veteran backup catcher who is a quality defender. In looking at the handy chart that Roster Resource has put together for trade candidates by position on sub-.500 teams, there are three names that make sense (when referencing the Baseball Prospectus defensive chart from above):
Tyler Flowers (Braves)
Welington Castillo (Orioles)
Rene Rivera (Mets)
Flowers is the top-ranked defensive catcher this year, buoyed entirely by his outstanding pitch framing ability. On the flip side, he’s in the bottom five of catchers trying to throw runners out (as was the dearly departed Montero). To avoid a repeat of what happened earlier this season, Flowers probably isn’t the answer.
Castillo has always been regarded as a solid defender, and he ranks right below Contreras in the defensive rankings. He’s also familiar with the surroundings as a former Cub himself. But he also comes with a $7MM player option in 2018 that is essentially a lock for him to exercise. As mentioned above, that cash is going to be spent elsewhere next season.
That brings us to the incomparable Rene Rivera. Veteran? Check — he’s 34 with five-plus years of MLB experience. Backup? Check — he’s played second fiddle most of his career and has been backing up Travis d’Arnaud this season. Good defender? You bet — 18th in the BP rankings in 2017 and finished 5th last season. And with a .686 OPS on an expiring contract, he’s not going to cost very much either.
So has the Rivera to the Cubs rumor been floated? It sure has. The other interesting name that popped up in that piece was Addison Reed. The former White Sox closer finished 6th among relievers in fWAR in 2016, and is in the top-30 this season while sporting a 2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and a 24.4% K-rate.
Justin Grimm has struggled the past 18 months for the Cubs, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them add a bullpen arm to bump him down in the pecking order. Grimm has one minor league option remaining, but they could probably use the DL constructively for the month of August to avoid optioning him until the rosters open up on September 1st and you can bury him. He’s arbitration eligible and is still worth having in your organization, but you can’t really trust him in the high leverage situations the Cubs hope to be in the next few months.
The Cubs have made their big acquisition in 2017, so don’t be surprised if their remaining trade activity doesn’t make your eyes bug out. Modest additions now combined with spending big money in the offseason is what makes the most sense. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are in this for the long haul.