Rose and Fall
Derrick Rose’s Stats Before and After Injury
Yesterday, the New York Knicks pulled the first blockbuster move of the offseason by trading Robin Lopez, Jose Calderon and Jerian Grant to the Chicago Bulls for a future second round pick, Justin Holiday and former league MVP Derrick Rose.
Any time a former MVP changes teams, it’s a big deal, but it’s especially noteworthy in this trade given how relatively little the Bulls got in return — at least in regard to “big name” players. The reason is simple, of course, since the injury-ravaged Rose is an impending free agent and a shell of his former self. He appeared destined for greatness, but simply never fully-recovered from his 2012 torn ACL and subsequent setbacks — and his stats prove it.
First, Rose’s scoring numbers were on an obvious trajectory before injury robbed him of the entire 2012–13 season. When he eventually returned, he put up respectable averages, but nothing close to award-worthy.
Overall, his post injury scoring has been down 4.1 PPG.
Second, his assists dropped by two per game, which isn’t great for a point guard — even one who’s a primary scorer.
In addition, his assist percentage (an estimate of the percentage of teammate field goals assisted by a player while he is on the floor) fell by 6.1%.
Also, his shot wasn’t nearly as effective post injury, as measured by effective field goal percentage (eFG%) —an adjusted field goal percentage that takes into account the extra point provided by the 3-point shot.
His shot charts from pre and post injury help illustrate his shooting drop, especially with his shots around the rim.
Rose also wasn’t getting to the free low line as much — which could’ve been a big factor as to why his overall offensive numbers were down. When averaging his free throw attempts per 48 minutes played, he averaged about 25 percent fewer upon his return.
But a better measure of his overall offensive decline may be the offensive rating statistic — an estimate of the number of points a player produces (taking into account points, assists, etc.) per 100 individual offensive possessions. Here, we see one of Rose’s biggest declines.
Furthermore, per Justin Kubatko, Rose’s offensive rating since 2014 has been the lowest in the league among players with at least 125 games played and a usage rate of at least 25%.
Of course, it’s too early to tell whether or not the Knicks made a good move by acquiring Rose. It’s a calculated gamble, for sure. They gave up so little on the chance that a change of scenery will help restore Rose to a player who more resembles his pre-injury self rather than what he’d been post comeback in Chicago. However, if the Knicks expect Rose to return to MVP form, the numbers simply don’t support it.
