Using fluid mechanics (convection cells) to model how customers switch from old to new products

If you’re not familiar with the jobs-to-be-done framework, stop reading this post and go learn as much as possible about it (#JTBD). One of the concepts that Bob Moesta & Chris Spiek talk about is how a customer thinks about switching to a new product:

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about their approach and I’ve seen the four forces play out time and again. For each new team member that joins my company, I take the time to describe jobs-to-be-done and the switch model seen above. Over time I realized there is an interaction occurring between the forces that is not being currently modeled.

I discovered the forces could be modeled by a naturally occurring phenomena in fluid mechanics—convection cells:

What’s going on here?

Meet the four forces: Push, Anxiety, Pull, & Inertia

The four forces interact in two convection cells. The first cell is an interaction between Push & Anxiety. The second cell has Pull & Inertia interacting.

At the bottom of the graph is the lower energy state, using the Old Product. If the system achieves the next phase of energy, the “switch” is made to the New Product.

Helpful analogy

Think of this as a pot of water at room temperature. When energy is applied to the system (heat) the convection cells begin to emerge. If the system receives enough energy (heat), eventually the pot of water will transition into a gas phase. If the energy does not reach high enough levels, the system may increase in temperature but does not actually switch to the next phase.

I love this analogy because it takes a lot of energy to get a consumer to switch. The system starts in a stable state (water), enough energy is added, and it transitions to a new stable state (gas). While this transition is occurring, the model comes to life and provides a foundation about how to think about consumer behavior when switching to a new product.

What is Push?
Push is a problem with the old product.

Think of problems that push you to think of new solutions. It’s that nagging thought in your head that pushes you to explore a better alternative.

What is Pull?
Pull is an attraction to the new product.

This is the shiny new gizmo that you’re really excited about. Simply by existing, it’s pulling your energy towards it.

What is Anxiety?
Anxiety is concern about implementing and switching to the new product.

Think of this as the questions and doubt you may have about the new product. Does the gizmo really do what it says it does? What if this gizmo doesn’t actually do what I really need it to do?

What is Inertia?
Inertia is your old habits not wanting to die and actual costs associated with switching. These costs can be literal (money) or opportunity costs (learning/time/etc).

Think of this as thoughts around “I don’t have time to learn this new gizmo”, “my old gizmo works just fine”, “I don’t want to change my current process by using a new product”.

Locations of the forces
Anxiety & Inertia both cool down the system while increasing the probability of staying with the Old Product. Push & Pull both heat up the system to drive the outcome to a switch to the New Product.

Anxiety & Pull are placed with proximity to the New Product, as they’re both byproducts of the New Product. While Push & Inertia are both located near the Old Product for the same reason.

Why model it with convection cells?

The convection cell model provides a framework for a discussion about the switching process. All four forces are present in a switch, although one or two of the forces may be the most dominant.

As a customer thinks about switching, they may experience these forces. The bigger and more emotionally powerful the decision, the more likely the forces will be significant & palpable.

In my experience, the Push & Pull forces tend to be the first forces to emerge. Going back to our analogy, they are a function of the heat source that kicks off this system. As a customer becomes dissatisfied with their Old Product, energy enters the system through the Push force. This energy is counter-balanced with Anxiety about new solutions. As new solutions are discovered, Pull begins to emerge as a significant force. Inertia counter-balances this force by providing the downside to the new solutions.

The story for each customer switch will be different and may start with a different force. For example, a strong Pull may appear to be the only force involved in some switches. In that type of scenario, I like to imagine a red hot iron going in to very small amount of water (small switch). The change from water to gas (Old Product → New Product) will be quick & predominantly driven by the Pull force. The other forces were most likely present, but may have happened quickly and subconsciously due to the intensity of the Pull.

Why does any of this matter?

Learning how to think about the forces at play enables you to learn more when talking to customers about your product. The learnings you gain can be applied in a wide variety of areas ranging from marketing to product development. I’ve started to draw connections between the probability of a customer’s journey through the Switch Model and where they likely fit in to adoption curves:

An example would that be with many new technologies, Innovators & Early Adopters are mostly drawn by the Pull force. While old technology becomes more prevalent and increases market share, the Late Majority & Laggards will eventually come into the model from the Push side. Marketing the product with this drastic of a difference between the two populations will be entirely different and will need to speak to different forces.