This is a truly thought provoking piece. You capture the present and reach into the future in a truly captivating way.
Taken in its entirety, your essay seems to express the reciprocal of human nature with respect to Amara’s Law, that:
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
Or, adapted to your prose in mindfulness of this common error:
Currently “humans are still some ways ahead of algorithms in modeling the world, simulating possible future worlds, and detecting patterns in our observations that may indicate where things are heading.” However, in future, “it seems possible that one day we’ll be able to have a fully autonomous company: an AI managed company, supported by robotics, that performs all of the core activities of a company — i.e. read no humans employed.”
In other words AI still works best with human guidance, but in the future we could put entire complex operations (with the support of robotics) in the hands of autonomous technological entities, thus freeing ourselves for higher tasks and applications.
Personally, I can’t imagine many thoughts that ignite the imagination to this level.
As we pass over the responsibility of these various complex operations to AI’s, however, it will be interesting to see which operations get passed over last.
Specifically, as portrayed in Her starring Joaquin Phoenix, I am thinking of the sensitive and articulate card writer. Will that be one of the last tasks the human master will be able to retain before being overtaken by the power of AI’s?
Perhaps not, but, I think it is a very interesting example of a space we will probably not be comfortable leaving to automation without a tiny little final human proof read, for quite some time. 65 years maybe?… tough to predict. Nevertheless, free time has led to some very powerful changes in human innovation in the past, and it is absolutely consuming to imagine what is possible in the next great epoch where we truly break away from currently defined labor in exchange for currently defined survival.
Amazing Post Dude. Amazing Thoughts.