Regression To The Mean
How we are automatically drawn back to “average”
In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement — and if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.
There is this funny phenomenon in life that we are just always drawn back to our average performance. As we grow and learn and create new skills and talents there seems to be a force drawing you back to where you were.
Think about a bad habit for a moment, perhaps you bite your nails. As you are trying to break that habit, you are always drawn back to doing that thing again, until you break the barrier and set a new standard for yourself. It’s as if each time you concede to the bad habit you mark a point below the median line, and every time you don’t concede you mark a point above the line. Until you have more points above the average line to bring up your median behavior you are going to be drawn back to what most often happens.
We are humans, therefore we are pretty lazy. Our brains optimize everything to be as easy as possible for us. We are especially lazy when it comes to thinking, because not thinking deeply is the average of most, so when we try to get ourselves to really think through a problem it’s super difficult for us.
Regression is this idea of coming back closer to the average at some point, even if initially you are way way off. It’s a cool idea actually, and responsible for thousands of ever increasing accurate models. It allows us to predict what will happen for different variable sets and create new ideas that drive innovation.
We are always going to be drawn to just be average. Like all of the world, and science and math denotes this idea, but it doesn’t have to be that. The cool thing about being human, is we work with one another to defy what should happen.
Everyday we are drawn to be average again, but everyday some human out there breaks through that average-ness to become something greater. What’s stopping you and me from doing the same?
