And that’s the real trick. I think the only real chance the US has to maintain our position is to pluck at the internal strings in China, or try to start a war between them and India. Neither of those are particularly nice options.
How about this is not an option at all? Inciting a war between the two most populous nations in the hopes of maintaining a somewhat relevant position in the world is pathetic and stupid. Like burning down a house because you did not get the biggest room anymore.
Even if we have a re-alignment and put people who are actually competent in charge I think we’re too weak from internal division to actually respond substantively to the challenges we’re facing.
Maybe resolve the internal division? You know there are things like education that might help reducing the percentage of religious dimwits in your country (which is the highest among the developed nations). But yeah, not putting stupid people in power would help a lot too. Under Obama, US was still a considerable global power, the TPP was a geopolitical move to secure asian alliances for generations to come, and a deterent for the spread of China. I have no problems with China btw, I love the people and I am advocating for the EU to move closer to China too, in order to help them evolve somewhat on democratic values. As their middle class grows, the CCP will need to make concessions to the people or face revolution; I hope for the former.
Europe (the EU) itself might very well dodge the bullet of Western decline (except for UK) and be the leader in international institution building, at least that is my hope. Especially France and Germany seem to be on the right track, with ITER fusion research being employed in France (arguably one of the most important international research collaborations of our times) and Germany as a moderating economic and political force.
Then there are still the other remnants of developed nations like Australia, Korea, Japan, who might move closer to China but in a way similar to the EU doing it via international cooperation exerting positive influence.
The big question is about India and how they will be able to deal with China; if they could refrain from becoming the arch-competitor of China (like the Soviet Union was to the US), but rather collaborative partner and counterbalance (similar to what the EU/UN was for US), then things are going to be quite optimistic for all of us.
And we should not forget the billion people living in Africa, who might be the next South-East Asia equivalent of today. Nigeria alone houses 100 million hungry and more and more educated young people waiting to get chances for innovation. To count them out if geopolitics in the future is very shortsighted; especially since China is already investing heavily in African nations to gain influence.
Soon, the only allies left for the US might be nations in South America, Mexica and Canada, and considering the brain drain from the states and the increase in protectionism, I wonder how well that will go.
I think it is unlikely that the US empire can stop its decline. But i think you can choose how to transition. Austria used to be a worldpower a century ago, then WW1 happened, and we fell apart, reduced to a tiny nation of 8 million people with nothing to say anymore. At first, we joined the Nazis to regain power, and the outcome was miserable. So maybe don’t do that. Today, we are part of the EU and have some power as part of this bigger trans-national cooperation, we have veto-rights against things we don’t like and life improved dramatically and consistenly since joining the EFTA (and later EU).
I don’t really think anybody misses the Austro-Hungarian empire anymore (though we joke about it from times to times), because life is better. Surely nobody is working to go back to the empire days. Our empire declined and it was a mess, but now everybody is better of as part of something even bigger. Today most of my generation feels European, on top of feeling Austrian.
Maybe you Americans can at some point feel part of something bigger to, on top of being Americans.
