Bitcoin Analysis: 03/11/2019
Since the Xi pump last week, Bitcoin has retraced to the 9.3k region and has been consolidating at this level. This consolidation has given some altcoins, especially China, the chance to pump, with most seeing an average of 40% increase. I personally don’t think we will see an altcoin run anytime soon, at least until Bitcoin reaches its ATH of about 20k, so most of my focus, for now, will still be on BTC.
Charts

Readjusting the top trend line, we can see a continuation of this wider consolidation of BTC within the big triangle zone. I am pretty bullish on the daily time frame due to a couple of reasons.
1. Moving Averages: Price is finding support on the 200MA, and as the 200MA continues to slope upwards, it is slowly pushing the key support zone higher and higher.
2. ADX: As usual, using the ADX and DIs, green line is above the red line, and black line has a reading of higher than 30. This = bullish trend
3. Ichimoku: Using the Ichimoku Cloud, we can see that the price is at the edge of the cloud, and is potentially looking to break out of it. This breakout will also confirm that the trend is bullish.
4. Chart Pattern: The candles in this consolidation in the past week are slowly forming a bull flag pattern. In a bull market, a bull flag pattern signifies a strong continuation in the bull trend, as the consolidation is required so the run-up will not be parabolic and overextended.

On the weekly chart, the trend is less clear. Price was still getting rejected below the 21MA, and this resistance is further strengthed by the 9.8k Fib level. ADX and DIs are showing a weak bullish trend, so we might need a couple of weeks more to establish a firm bull trend on the weekly.
I believe we are at a pivotal point, where the trend can go either way, but my bias would be towards the bulls. This would mean that we are close to one of the dips and should see the price rally very soon.
Trades
I made 2 trades this week.

- The first one was a long call, BTO on 27 Oct with about 5DTE. This was a speculative YOLO play, which I was banging on the fact that price will continue to rally after the huge retracement from 10.5k. It was intended to be a quick play, with a total target of 10% on the upmove and closing it after 1–2days. The good news was price did hit my profit target level, but the bad news was that it was around 6 am and I was asleep, so by the time I was awake, all the profits were gone. If I followed the rule I set, I would have closed it for a 20% loss, but I held on to it, ‘hoping’ that it will enter my profit zone again. This horrible play cost me my entire premium.
2. I STO a short put at 8.5k on 1Nov which expires this coming Friday. Will be sticking to my rules and closing it at a 50% profit level. Also, I would need about 8 of these trades with a 50% profit target to make back what I lost in my long call. This is why preserving capital is key when trading.

This will be an exciting moment for BTC. Will we finally be in a bull run? What will the price be as at 31st Dec? So many exciting questions. The only thing we know is that the 4Chan prophecy is finally dead, no 16k :(
