Bitcoin Analysis: 10/11/2019
Bitcoin broke down from its consolidation 3 days ago and dipped all the way to 8.6k, where it found strong support. Most would attribute this dip to the FBI’s comments that cryptocurrency is posing a ‘Significant Issue’ to law enforcement. Perhaps, the director was not aware that the USD is used 800 times more than Bitcoin for the purpose of money laundering.
Though the price has dipped and closed below the major support of 200MA, I am personally not really concerned that the bear trend has arrived.
Charts
A couple of technicals are changing towards a bearish sentiment, but besides the 200MA, the rest have not confirmed its signal yet.
- ADX & DIs: ADX has dropped below 30, implying that the trend has weakened. DIs are barely showing a bullish trend. We will need more time for price discovery in the coming 2 weeks to establish a clearer signal.
- Ichimoku Cloud: Price failed to stay above the cloud and has dropped back into the cloud. The trend is also unclear at this point in time.
I believe we are seeing a healthy retracement post Xi Pump, and as long as price continues to make higher lows and higher highs, and all key major supports can hold, we should see a nice Christmas rally.
Trades
I was pretty aggressive this week, opening 3 shorts in a week. My last trade was opened 6 hours prior to expiry when the price was about 9.2k. 9k seemed pretty safe but price started dipping close to expiry and did eventually break 9k an hour after expiry. Literally picking up pennies in front of the steamroller. Thankfully, all of them worked out fine. The other 2 trades were better managed and closed for 60% profit.
I have a current position opened on Friday just after the 8Nov options expire, but this was a really bad entry. I enter on the sub 9k dip, thinking that price will hold at that level and rebound, but it eventually fell all the way to 8.6k, which put me at a horrible loss position of more than 100% of my premium. I held on to it cause 8.6k did show some strong sign of support and it has not breached my strike of 8.5k, so I still have time on my side to manage the trade. As of now, I’m almost back to breakeven. Similarly, I will be exiting this trade once it crosses my 50% profit target.
I have also accumulated some sats this week, buying at 9.1k and 9.3k. Slightly bumped out at the current price, if only I waited just a week more to buy, would have gotten a much better deal, but hey, no should have, could have, will have in trading, we can’t time the dip. I took the batch of 9.3k coins to buy some LINK as well, and thankfully LINK is not really dipping.
Excited to see where Bitcoin will head towards the end of 2019. I’m still happy even if it’s headed lower, as I will be able to accumulate more sats before the halving.
