Cryptobits — Bitcoin Analysis: 8/6/2019

In my previous analysis last week, BTC was around the 8700+ range. This week has not been kind, with the expected retracement happening in the early part of the week. The price plunged all the way to its lowest at 7427 before slowly recovering to about 8000 at the time of writing. On a Lower Time Frame (LTF) (hourly charts), BTC has shifted to a bearish trend mid week, forming lower highs and lower lows, though it is now considered to be trading in a range. I’m happy I managed to accumulate some BTC at these key support levels at 8100 and 7500. Lets looking at some key levels before determining how the price will move for the coming week.

Weekly Chart:

Image for post
Image for post
Trend: Bullish
Immediate Support: 7,555.13
Key Confluence Area: 6,606.88–6,812.86 (Average 6,709.87)
COP: 11,110.97
OP: 13,388.11
XOP: 17,072.08

The weekly trend is still bullish, although the first level of immediate support at 7,555 has been broken. COP is at 11k, which we might see in the next couple of months if the trend continues. Based on one of the hyped predictions circulated on the internet has done in Jan2019, BTC will reach 9,200 in July, which I believe it is very possible.

Daily Charts:

Image for post
Image for post
Trend: Bullish
Immediate Support: 8470.05
Key Confluence Area A: 8087.05–8138.82 (Average 8112.94)
Key Confluence Area B: 7513.49–7551.18 (Average 7532.34)

Daily support levels remain the same as last week since there was no higher highs and higher lows forming, so no new reaction points were formed. Though price actually fell below the first reaction point, it was very close to this point and since it found some level of support at this level, I consider this reaction point to still be valid. Looking at the chart above, you could see how well these two confluence level controlled the price movement, with price trading between these two levels in the week. current price looks to be testing the top support turn resistance level for a second time. The more times a support or resistance level is tested, the weaker it becomes, and personally, this is a slight indication to me that price is looking to break out of this level very soon. I believe this should be a key level to watch.

Image for post
Image for post
COP: 10660.38
OP: 12659
XOP: 15892.38

Objective points for the daily chart plotted as above. Not going into too much detail for this.

4HR Charts:

Image for post
Image for post
Trend: Bullish/Sideways
Key Confluence Area A: 8087.05–8138.82 (Average 8112.94)
Key Confluence Area B: 7551.18–7629.08 (Average 7590.13)

Similarly to the daily charts, 4HR charts still react within the two key confluence areas. The top confluence area A is the same as the daily charts, which is more significant compared to B. In fact, 4HR confluence B is probably less significant compared to daily confluence B since it is further up and has been breached. Pushing the limits a bit, you can see this level providing some support to the smaller price actions but I doubt it will hold if the momentum is stronger.

Image for post
Image for post
COP: 8988.82
OP: 9640
XOP: 11478.82

4HR objective points to note, with COP being very close to the 2019 high of 9090. This will be a strong resistance level and those looking to trade short term should consider taking profits at this level.

1HR Chart:

Trend: Bearish/Sideways
Key Confluence Area A: 8062.27–8144.91 (Average 8103.59)
COP: 7106.56
OP: 6471.29
XOP: 5443.56 (not shown)

Personally, I feel the trend on the hourly charts is too vague to deduce any really meaningful levels, but if we really need some levels, the above chart would be it. There is a confluence level at 8104, which to be fair is pretty close to the key confluence level at 8113 in both the daily and 4HR charts, but I wouldn’t consider this confluence level to be very accurate since the area is relatively wide. It’s just a coincidence that this level is close to the key support level. Some OP levels to take note too.

Overall, I’m generally more bias towards a continued bull run in the coming week due to all the positive news of the crypto scene recently. With Facebook announcing its own stable coin next week, this should drive awareness and curiosity towards crypto in general. Personally, I don’t like the idea of FB’s stable coin, but I can see the positive impact it will have on BTC and the crypto scene so I will embrace it! Not planning to add any more positions for the month, though I will be buying some eth to convert it to fiat in my MCO card for usage. I will cover what I’m doing with my crypto at the sidelines in a separate post so any random people that come across my post can benefit too!


Image for post
Image for post

Decided to do a TLDR so I or anyone can have a quick glance to know the key levels without re-reading the entire post. I won't cover multiple levels in this table, just the one which I feel is the most important in that particular timeframe.

Update: Read my latest analysis on BTC right here:

Documenting my every trading/investing decisions, and thoughts on anything relating to finance. Probably talking out of my ass so DYODD.

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store