You bring up a very important point. Random events in history do have non-linear exponential outcomes. However, you seem to have missed the most insidious “black death” or “Plague” if you will, that is currently crawling across the planet acting as both a substrate, catalyst and raw material for all the random events to have the kind of non-linear impacts they are having. The plague of the globalized neo-liberalist doctrine that holds that inequality (also popularly known as market fundamentalism) is the solution to all problems. This is the shot that has already been fired (back in the 80's) and is now harvesting the corpses. And yes there are real corpses not metaphorical ones. But the only problem is that the corpses are piling up behind a wall of media blindness and media blackout. They don’t go to those places where the deaths are occurring. But soon that cascade of corpses will reach our pristine neighborhoods and then the stink will be everywhere and your scenario will be laid bare for all to see. But please do not be surprised if then people point a finger at you and say you pointed to all kinds of triggers but you blanked out the most obvious one….