Mississippi Blues

Chris Pino
21 min readMay 11, 2020

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An Analysis of Mississippi’s Past, Present, and Future State and Urban Politics

[1]

I. Introduction

Mississippi is your quintessential Deep South state: socially conservative, predominantly agrarian and rural, and still pitted with many of the lingering effects of segregation and slavery.[1] Its 21st-century politics are driven and polarized near-exclusively along racial lines. And like its Dixie peers, the state is ancestrally Democratic. Most deep southern states have all but entirely kyboshed their Blue Dog Democrat roots, on a local, state, and federal level. But Mississippi has not — entirely. The state continued to elect Democrats to top statewide positions up until 2019, and even now it continues to elect them in some of the most federally Republican-friendly districts and counties. This is not something that can be explained away as a factor of changing demographics. Unlike the more Democratic Party-friendly North Carolina, Georgia, and Virginia, the state is not undergoing rapid urbanization and suburbanization. In fact, there is only one city in the state with a population over 100,000, and only three Census-designated metropolitan areas located entirely within the state.[2] That is not to say that Mississippi is not undergoing the same partisan coalition realignment as is the nation as a whole — Mississippian rural areas continue to teeter to the right, suburban areas continue to teeter to the left, and much of statewide politics serve in part as a reaction to global and national trends. This, in combination with the state’s somewhat contradictory electoral behaviors, present Mississippi as a unique exhibit worthwhile of analysis.

In this paper, I examine the past, present, and future state of politics in the state. I accomplish this by first taking into consideration the states’ history and background, specifically focusing on the legacy of race relations in its politics and the structure of state and local government. I then segue into a discussion on the present state of politics in the state, particularly considering demographics and the continued presence of Democrats in unlikely elected positions. This section is supplemented by my interview with Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, a state elected official hailing from the most conservative area of the state, from whom I will draw many of my conclusions. Lastly, I speculate on the future of Mississippi politics, drawing from both the most prescient issues facing Mississippians today as well as the execution of national political trends within the state. This is supplemented by my interview with newly minted State Representative Hester Jackson-McCray, who in 2019 toppled the incumbent Republican by a margin of 14 votes in her blood-red, fast-growing suburban district.[3]

II. Mississippi’s Past: History, Background, and Structure

Mississippi, the Magnolia State, became the 20th state of the Union in 1817. Its name, borrowed from its bordering river, comes from the Ojibwe word misi-ziibi, meaning “Great River.”[4] Over its first thirty years, the state emerged as a prime hub for cotton production and for slavery, due to its fertile soils. Due to the slave trade and growing plantation farming, the state ascended into a majority-black status, but was still ruled by the tyrannical white majority, a trend which would continue for decades. In January 1861, amidst tensions between the slave-liberating North and the slave-clenching South, Mississippi seceded from the Union, joined the Confederacy, and began participating in the Civil War (1861–1865).[5] The rebellion proved futile and devastating for the state, however, leaving it in total economic ruin. Throughout Reconstruction (1865–1877) and for decades following, the still-predominant whites would not accept a biracial society based on equal opportunity. Consequently, in 1890, the ruling white elite put in place a new state constitution that both institutionalized a system of racial segregation and established an economic order that kept the state’s black population in a position of dependency. In tandem with Jim Crow laws and the advent of the tenant farming system, economic interdependence between the two races continued and the state isolated itself.[6] It wasn’t until after the Great Migration that blacks no longer comprised a majority of the state’s population.

Approximately half a century later, racial tensions once again boiled over, and Mississippi emerged as one of the prime fronts for the Civil Rights Movement. Several of the most consequential moments of the movement occurred within the state’s borders, including the murder of Emmett Till in 1955, the admission of James H. Meredith to the University of Mississippi in 1962, and the summertime Ku Klux Klan murders of civil right workers in 1964. Amidst the Movement as well as several Supreme Court decisions ruling against many of the state’s practices of segregation and disenfranchisement, Mississippi continued to unconstitutionally discriminate against minorities and subsequently isolate itself from much of the nation. And the state’s efforts yielded prescient results: in the early 1960s, Mississippi was the poorest state in the nation, and 86% of all non-white families lived below the national poverty line; and in the 1950s, only 5% of the state’s 45% black population was registered to vote.[7] It was not until the late 1960s and early 1970s that the state finally integrated and removed itself from isolation. Shortly thereafter, the ‘Strong South’ began to decline, leading to the slow demise of Southern Democrats, whose voting base felt greatly disaffected by the national party’s social liberalism, in the region.[8]

Today, Mississippi’s governmental structure is nearly identical to all other states. State governmental power is split between three branches: the executive, the legislative, and the judicial. The Governor, Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, and most of the heads of each major executive agency are all elected by voters, with other executive officers appointed by the Governor and Legislature. All non-federal judges; from the Supreme Court to the Court of Appeals, as well as the Circuit Courts, Chancery Courts, and Justice Courts; are elected to their positions within varying sizes of districts. State judges are elected for eight-year terms on a staggered basis, and jurisdictional judges are elected for four-year terms. The Mississippi Legislature is bicameral, and its 52 Senators and 122 Representatives are elected every four odd-numbered years.[9] Of the three branches, the executive retains the most political power. All powers not explicitly given to the state are delegated to county and municipal governments, the latter of which carries the least power. The state also has two U.S. Senators and four U.S. Representatives, one of which represents a Voting Rights Act-protected black-majority district.[10]

III. Mississippi’s Present: Demographics & Statistics, the Changing Nature of Politics, and an Interview with Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley

Today, despite continued economic advancement and growth, the state’s economy remains predominantly agrarian, and its population predominantly rural and poor. The state’s 2017 median household income is $43,529, far lower than the national average of $62,626, positioning it as the second-worst of all states.[11] Of its approximately 3 million residents, 5.3% are unemployed, moderately higher than the national average of 4.4%.[12] 19.8% of residents (31.3% of blacks, 12.1% of whites) fall below the poverty line, positioning Mississippi as the most impoverished state. Accordingly, the state receives much more federal tax dollars than it contributes.[13]

As of the 2010 Census, Mississippi is 58% White, 38% African American, 3% Hispanic/Latino, 1% Asian, and 1% Native American. Out of all states, Mississippi has the most heavily black population, as well as the highest proportion of black elected officials. Despite having done away with its segregating practices decades ago, race continues to divide the state. Accordingly, it is the most dominant cultural force in Mississippi.[14] In many ways, segregation has informally continued, with urban areas remaining heavily black and their suburbs heavily white. The rural areas of the state are perhaps the most ‘de-segregated’ areas of the state, as much more overlap occurs there than anywhere else. Furthermore, race is an especially potent and divisive force along political lines: if you are white, you are near-conclusively a Republican, whereas if you are black, you are near-conclusively a Democrat. Thusly, party identification has long transcended functioning as a factor of beliefs or ideology: it is part of who you are, who your peers are, how you were socialized, and how you were raised. Nonetheless, ticket-splitting is still a commanding, albeit declining, force in state and local politics.

Attached below is a series of maps showcasing the racial composition, Presidential voting trends, and soil resource regions of the state. The stark similarities between the racial composition and presidential election maps are a visual representation of the domineering force that race plays in politics, as the two maps are nearly identical. The inclusion of the soil resource map serves to illustrate the intertwining between physical and political geography within the state. The distribution of rural blacks (and rural Democrats) parallels the distribution of the most fertile and easily exploitable soil regions (namely, the Mississippi River Delta and Black Belt). This is evidence of the lingering legacy of cotton and of slavery.

Figure I: Mississippi Soil Resource Region Map [15]
Figure II & III: Map of Mississippi Precincts, Colored by Racial Composition (I, left) and 2016 Presidential Election Results (II, right). [16]

(In Figure II (left), areas shaded red indicate more Whites, blue indicates more African Americans, green indicates more Hispanic/Latinos, hot pink indicates more Asians, yellow indicates more Native Americans, and gray/white indicates a close divide. Darker shades indicate higher proportions, and lighter shades indicate lesser proportions.)

(In Figure III (right), areas shaded red indicate a higher Republican two-party margin, and areas shaded blue indicate a higher Democratic two-party margin. Lighter shades indicate closer margins.)

Also attached is close-up on the city of Jackson — the largest city in the state — in the form of both racial composition and presidential voting trends. This map, in combination with those attached above, illustrates the continuing informal practice of segregation: inner cities — except for their gentrifying downtown areas — are nearly exclusively black and Democratic-voting, and their suburbs are nearly exclusively white and Republican voting. There is little room for political swing; although there has been a considerable leftward movement in America’s suburbs, this has yet to be sizeable enough to change the face of Mississippi politics. Indeed, according to FiveThirtyEight, Jackson is the most politically segregated city in the nation, a reflection of its implicitly continued racial segregation.[17] These trends also hold true in most of the state’s smaller, outlying cities.

Mississippi remains a predominantly rural state, and the bulk of its population lives within its rural areas. 44.28% of Mississippians live outside the top 10 most populous counties.[18] Other than Jackson, Mississippi’s one major city (and a medium-sized one at that), there are several small cities in the state, including three with a population greater than 50,000, and nine with a population greater than 30,000.[19] Still, only 18.65% of the population lives within the top 10 most populous cities, indicating that a disproportionate level of political clout falls on unincorporated, sparsely-populated areas.[20] The most populous counties and cities are relatively evenly distributed across the state’s different regions. In the figures below, VI and VII, I illustrate this both visually and empirically.

Figure IV & V: Map of Jackson-Area Precincts and Municipalities, Colored by Racial Composition (III, top) and 2016 Presidential Election Results (IV, bottom). [21]
Figure VI & VII: Table and Map of Top 10 Most Populous Mississippi Counties (VI, top), and of Top 10 Most Populous Mississippi Cities (VII, bottom), 2019. [22] [23] [24]
Figure VIII: List of Prominent Mississippi Statewide Elections of the Decade. [26]

Mississippi, like most of its Dixie peers, is now the stomping ground of the Republican Party and is no longer the Southern Democrat oasis that it used to be. Indeed, the state has not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson’s 1964 landslide. Nonetheless, the state is lauded for its perpetually close but seldom-shrinking margins, a phenomenon sometimes referred to as the ‘high floor and low ceiling’. Because of this phenomenon, most contested elections end up with a similar 5% to 10% margins, and with little room for sway due to political and racial polarization (as illustrated in Figure VIII). Another profound aspect of Mississippi’s politics is its lingering tendency for crossover support. This is easily explained as a factor of the state’s lack of straight-ticket voting, which benefits both sides: Republicans like former Senator Thad Cochran and former Governor Phil Bryant are renowned for earning significant support from black Democrats in their elections, whereas Democrats like former Attorney General Jim Hood are renowned for earning significant support from white Republicans in their elections. All four were elected by wide margins as recently as 6 years ago. But as polarization grows more potent, the state’s crossover tendencies have begun to wane. The widely popular Jim Hood lost his 2019 bid for Governor to the widely unpopular Tate Reeves;[25] Mississippi politics is more polarized by the year.

Yet still, despite the grim prospects for continuing crossover support, Democrats continue to be elected and re-elected to powerful positions in the most unforgivingly ruby-red areas of the state. How is it that national trends have left so many Blue Dogs in Mississippi unscathed?

Brandon Presley is the embodiment of this peculiarity. He is one of three Public Service Commissioners, with a district that spans 33 predominantly rural counties that awarded Trump a 20-point margin of victory. He is young, the cousin of Elvis, and a self-proclaimed “populist FDR Democrat.” [27] And in his last contested election, he won by nearly 25 points.[28]

Presley’s stint in politics began at the age of 23 when he was elected Mayor of his hometown, Nettleton. It was from here that he garnered a record of fiscal conservatism coupled with progressive pragmatism: over the span of his two terms, he cut taxes twice, kept the budget balanced, brought in more grant money, and ushered in record employment. This record has continued as he’s advanced into other political positions.[29] At 29, he was elected to the Mississippi Public Service Commission, the state’s general utility regulatory body. The Commission has a vast array of jurisdictions within its net, including telecommunications, water, wastewater, natural gas, consumer protection, and numerous other services. As Commissioner for the North District, he represents 1 million Mississippians, and devotes himself to expanding access to utilities in rural areas, all while voting against increased rates and spending.[30] He cites the expansion of broadband internet access as the central issue he is focused on right now. To him, internet access is the electricity of the 21st century: it is essential for participating in the modern society and economy, but there is a huge disparity in those who can access it. He has worked with both the Commission and the State Legislature to enact laws to expand access to broadband and other public goods in a New Deal-esque fashion.[31] From this, his unique and bold allegiance as an “FDR Democrat” is clear as day.

“I come from the region of the state [Roosevelt saved with] the Tennessee Valley Authority … I believe in that type of democracy, where government can’t do everything, but there are things the government can do right. There’s nothing more American than people taking their own problems into their own hands and fixing them. The New Deal helped us do this [and] FDR took the problems by the throat and did things about them. [That’s why I’m a] populist FDR Democrat.” [32]

Presley has a unique outlook on the long-term feasibility of rural Democrats in the Deep South. On one hand, he acknowledges that they are dwindling. But on the other hand, he rejects the notion that they cannot sustain themselves. To him, it is all a matter of showing your face and bringing home the pork. He fervently believes that all politics is local, and that rural Democrats like himself will continue to exist as long as they devote themselves to fighting for solutions to public problems, and to assisting those who vote for — and against — them. That does not mean he is unwary of the national party — he is pro-life and pro-gun, and openly berated the Democratic National Committee for disillusioning and antagonizing rural Americans. But he finds that Mississippians are much more interested in avoiding divisive wedge issues and would rather vote for someone they know cares about “meat and potatoes,” the prescient issues not seen through a partisan lens.[33]

“The Democrats who are successful in the Deep South are the ones who find the issues we all find important and does not try to find things people disagree on. [These are] the issues that the people of Mississippi don’t [see] through a Republican or Democratic lens — people are a lot more responsible to a local official who takes care of their problems.” [34]

Impressively, it appears that the data backs up his claims. Polling from 2015 showed that nearly 6 in 10 of his constituents were able to rate his job performance, an impressive awareness for what would traditionally be considered a low-profile office. Even more impressively, Presley maintained a nearly 5:1 positive job rating, even trumping the universally popular Governor Phil Bryant and Senator Thad Cochran.[35] He touts his office’s practice of “world-class constituent services,” with approximately 25,000 consumer contacts and 300 town halls in recent months, 4 to 5 times the amount of any other district. He also touts the fact that he regularly shows his face in each of the 33 counties he represents. According to Presley, people trust him and know how to get ahold of him better than any other state official.[36] And in a nation living in what feels like a perpetual state of political war, it seems that this pays off.

“People know how to get ahold of me; they have my personal cell phone number … People don’t call me Mister or Commissioner; they call me Brandon. People know me … [and they know] I will fight like the dickens for them.” [37]

IV. Mississippi’s Future: Where Mississippi is Going, the Issues It Will Confront, and an Interview with State Representative Hester Jackson-McCray

Beneath the surface of its sociopolitical trends, there are several present and long-term issues uniquely plaguing the state of Mississippi. The most pressing issue in the state is public education funding, a long-standing issue which for decades the state has struggled to address adequately; the state faces a $2.3 billion shortfall and lags pre-recession levels.[38] Another pressing issue that has the potential to evolve into a long-term one is the state’s COVID-19 response — Governor Reeves’ response is widely regarded as slow, insufficient, and unpopular, particularly in light of his family’s trip to Spain amidst the beginning of the state’s outbreak.[39] Other prominent issues include fractures in power among executive officials regarding issues such as Medicaid expansion,[40] and the flight of rural Mississippians leading to stagnant population growth.[41]

Despite its unique political dynamics that still herald back to Democratic dominance in the old South, Mississippi’s politics definitely have acquiesced to national trends. As is being observed around the nation, the suburbs are growing in population and political clout, whereas the rural areas are shrinking in population and political clout. The former is rapidly shifting towards the Democrats, whereas the latter is rapidly shifting towards the Republicans. And year by year, voters across the state are increasingly less keen on lending their support to candidates of the opposing party. State Representative Hester Jackson-McCray, first elected in 2019, embodies much of the post-2016 era’s new Democratic vision. She is a woman of color hailing from a non-political background (former nurse and mother of two) who ran for office in a rapidly-growing, ancestrally Republican suburban district, on a platform of kitchen-table issues that personally impact her family (“Save Our Schools”).[42] But do not be mistaken, Jackson-McCray is not your ordinary state legislator. She is living proof that every vote matters and that the suburban swing is real. But more importantly, she stands as a beacon of hope for petering Mississippi Democrats.

“Three seats were overturned by Democratic women in Mississippi alone in 2019. I’m the only [black woman and Democrat] representing my county; the rest are all white Republican men.” [43]

Hester Jackson-McCray first ran for state house in 2015. Her district, District 40, is 56% white and is located just south of Memphis, Tennessee. It occupies a few square miles in DeSoto County on the northwestern Mississippi-Tennessee border. At that time, the district was dismissed as uncompetitive. This, coupled with her self-proclaimed inability to balance work with her campaign, led to her inevitable loss by a margin of 36.6%.[44] In 2019, however, having experienced an injury that forced her to quit her prohibitive work schedule, she was able to focus squarely on her rematch. She centered her campaign around the issue of public education funding, a potent issue in Mississippi politics. Specifically, she made an issue of how the incumbent, Ashley Henley, did not vote in support of adequate public school funding despite being a former public school teacher herself.[45] Unlike in 2015, she was able to run an extensive get-out-the-vote operation: she personally knocked on 6,000 doors, reaching half of the district’s population. Meanwhile, her opponent employed a comparatively weak campaign arm. This, coupled with growth, a competitive gubernatorial race, and overarching political trends, led to double the turnout relative to 2015, and to her victory by a margin of 14 votes, or 0.4%.[46] This victory did not come with certainty, however. Henley contested the election results in the Republican-controlled House Elections Committee, alleging that over 14 voters cast their ballots fraudulently. This left Jackson-McCray’s victory in legal jeopardy for weeks. However, the motion was eventually dismissed, and Jackson-McCray was sworn in. In 2020, she became the first Democrat in decades to represent the once ruby-red DeSoto County in the State Legislature.[47]

“Well, with it being a Republican state, it’s kinda hard for Democrats to win elections here in Mississippi, and not because we don’t have [the votes to win, because we do.] It’s just hard to get voters out because a lot of people don’t think their votes count.” [48]

Hester Jackson-McCray, much like Brandon Presley, believes that all politics in Mississippi is local, and electoral success is a matter of showing your face and bringing home the pork. She attributes her victory more to her extensive efforts than to changing tides.[49] But in a state where Democrats are floundering, and Democratic officials are increasingly bound to the majority-black districts drawn exclusively to elect them, she represents something arguably much more valuable than any of those things. To a party with long-term sustainability issues, she represents a plausible proof-of-concept for winning in unfamiliar territory. Despite picking up several Republican-held seats in 2019, Democrats still decreased their total number of seats in both legislative chambers, a continuation of trends ongoing since 2007.[50] And without breaking the Republican supermajorities, Democrats will have nothing but ceremonial power within state government. However, if the Democrats continue winning influence in the ever-growing suburbs (like Hester Jackson-McCray), hold their grasp on the inner-cities, and make a diligent effort in the still somewhat Democratic-friendly rural areas (like Brandon Presley), Republicans may find themselves in trouble, and Democrats may overcome the grim predisposition they face today.

“[Mississippi politics is] a matter of devotion. You gotta be willing to get out there and show folks your face. You have to put yourself out there, [not just to] inspire people to go vote, but to inspire others to run.” [51]

V. Conclusion:

While it is easy to dismiss Mississippi as your quintessential Deep South state, its political affairs are much more nuanced and complex than what one might expect. In this paper, I examined the past, present, and future state of politics in the state. I accomplished this by first taking into consideration the states’ history and background, specifically focusing on the legacy of race relations in its politics and the structure of state and local government. I then segued into a discussion on the present state of politics in the state, particularly considering state and urban demographics and the continued presence of Democrats in unlikely elected positions. This section was supplemented by my interview with Democratic Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, a state elected official hailing from the most conservative area of the state, from whom I drew many of my conclusions. Lastly, I speculated on the future of Mississippi politics, drawing from both the most prescient issues facing Mississippians today as well as the execution of national political trends within the state. This was supplemented by my interview with newly minted State Representative Hester Jackson-McCray, who in 2019 toppled the incumbent Republican by a margin of 14 votes in her blood-red, fast-growing suburban district.[52]

[1] Wallenfeldt, Jeff, et al. 2020. “Mississippi.” In Encyclopædia Britannica. February 7.

[2] United States Census Bureau. 2013. “MISSISSIPPI — Core … and Counties.” U.S. Census Bureau. February 1.

[3] Pettus, Emily Wagster. 2020.

[4] Wallenfeldt, Jeff, et al. 2020.

[5] Wallenfeldt, Jeff, et al. 2020.

[6] Wallenfeldt, Jeff, et al. 2020.

[7] Cozzens, Lisa. 1998. “Mississippi & Freedom Summer.” www.watson.org. June 29.

[8] Wallenfeldt, Jeff, et al. 2020.

[9] “Government Branches.” 2020. MS.GOV.

[10] Presley, Brandon. 2020. Phone interview. April 27.

[11] United States Census Bureau. 2020. “MEDIAN … DOLLARS).” American FactFinder. U.S. Census Bureau. Feb. 13.

[12] United States Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2019. “Mississippi … Glance.” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. March 30.

[13] Talk Poverty. 2018. “Mississippi Report — 2018.” Talk Poverty. Center for American Progress.

[14] Campbell, Alexia Fernández. 2015. “Will a Black-Latino Alliance … in the Deep South?” The Atlantic. January 26.

[15] Kushla, John D., et al. 2017. “Forest Soils of Mississippi.” Mississippi State University Extension. July.

[16] Bradlee, Dave et al. 2020. “DRA 2020.” DRA 2020. April 27.

[17] Dottle, Rachael. 2019. “Where Democrats And Republicans Live In Your City.” FiveThirtyEight. May 20.

[18] Figure VI.

[19] Figure VII.

[20] Figure VII.

[21] Bradlee, Dave et al. 2020.

[22] Bradlee, Dave et al. 2020.

[23] United States Census Bureau. 2019a. “Annual Estimates of the Resident Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018.” U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. December 19.

[24] United States Census Bureau. 2019b. “B01001 SEX BY AGE, 2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.” U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Office. December 19.

[25] Ganucheau, Adam. 2020. “Gov. Tate Reeves … Controversial Spain Trip.” Mississippi Today. March 30.

[26] Watson, Michael. 2020. “Election Results.” Mississippi Secretary of State. March 4.

[27] Presley, Brandon. 2020.

[28] “Brandon Presley.” 2020. Ballotpedia.

[29] Presley, Brandon. 2020.

[30] Presley, Brandon. 2020.

[31] Presley, Brandon. 2020.

[32] Presley, Brandon. 2020.

[33] Presley, Brandon. 2020.

[34] Presley, Brandon. 2020.

[35] Brown, Ryan. 2015. “North Mississippi: Brandon Presley Country.” Cottonmouth. January 26.

[36] Presley, Brandon. 2020.

[37] Presley, Brandon. 2020.

[38] Harris, Bracey. 2020. “Population and … Easy Fix?” Biloxi Sun Herald. March 15.

[39] Ganucheau, Adam. 2020.

[40] Jackson, Courtney Ann. 2019. “Newly-Elected … Policy Differences.” WLBT TV Jackson. November 6, 2019

[41] “Mississippi Population 2020 (Demographics, Maps, Graphs).” 2020. World Population Review.

[42] “House District 40: Hester Jackson McCray.” 2019. Mississippi Public Education PAC.

[43] Jackson-McCray, Hester. 2020. Phone interview. April 16.

[44] “Hester Jackson-McCray.” 2020. Ballotpedia.

[45] Jackson-McCray, Hester. 2020.

[46] Jackson-McCray, Hester. 2020.

[47] Pettus, Emily Wagster. 2020.

[48] Jackson-McCray, Hester. 2020.

[49] Jackson-McCray, Hester. 2020.

[50] “Hester Jackson-McCray.” 2020. Ballotpedia.

[51] Jackson-McCray, Hester. 2020.

[52] Pettus, Emily Wagster. 2020.

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