When Undocumented Immigrants Leave
The Trump Admin seeks to deport undocumented immigrants, and it’s been largely doing so — deportations were high under the Obama Administration, and the Trump Admin has accelerated that even further. It’s beginning to harm some farm operations, as reported by NBC.
Arizona passed a law in 2007 that allowed police to racially profile, combing for people to deport. That gives us insight into what’s to come for the US, if the Trump Admin is allowed to continue mass deportations. By the numbers:
40% drop in undocumented immigrants
-2% GDP every year for 8 years
Real estate values declined as much as 60% in some neighborhoods
State costs fell slightly
90% of farm jobs were eliminated by automation or closing farms
Farm wages increased 6%
WSJ: The Thorny Economics of Illegal Immigration
Now let’s put those in context: The right-wing narrative says, essentially, not one worker should be undocumented, and 100% of those jobs should go to Americans. And by giving them to Americans, they’d need to meet wage laws and employ from a smaller labor pool, so wages would shoot up. The right also believes the undocumented are a drain on the system, sucking up taxpayer money.
The left essentially says there’s no harm done whatsoever by undocumented immigrants, and the workers are necessary for our farms to operate.
Now, what does the data say?
The 40% drop reflects broader statistics that show the majority of undocumented immigrants are actually people who overstayed their Visas, not the migrant farm worker most people picture. Tourists overstaying their time are less likely to get racially profiled by Arizona police, so it’s reasonable to guess they were more likely to stick around.
The slight drop in state costs does bolster the view that the undocumented drain the system, until you look at Arizona’s GDP numbers. States make their money on taxes — less production, less to tax. A decline in costs paired with a bigger decline in revenues is no savings. And, the size of the cost cut shows that this “drain on the system” is at least somewhat overblown. Many are unaware undocumented immigrants often pay taxes, on an SSN they purchased on the black market, or a US program called ITIN. And the migrant farmer most picture generates a lot more revenue than the mere crop they’re paid to gather — a lot of jobs follow on the export and sale of those crops.
Now the big, almost shocking number: 90% of farm jobs left the state. WSJ’s full article is worth a read, but they find farms that just closed and gave up — which explains that -2% GDP compounded year after year — and farms that automated. There is even a positive story to be told in some farms inventing new automation devices. This explains the increase in wages — automation allows more production by fewer workers, allowing higher wage. But to lose 90% of your jobs for a 6% wage increase, is likely a worse bargain than most favoring mass deportation likely would have expected. It’s likely many thought 100% of those jobs would go to US-born citizens, and that wages would rise much more significantly. Instead, as has been the national trend, automation, not undocumented immigration, was the primary driver of job loss.
So, neither the left or right-wing narrative was completely true, as usual. As informed voters, we should go into these policy choices with our eyes wide open. A decline in economic growth, a 6% wage increase, a loss of 90% of farm jobs. That’s the deal. Is that what we want?
Unless voters pressure their local members of Congress, it is where we’re headed.
