Jeb Bush may be preparing an act for the Republican presidential primary circus, and it would seem that the way is relatively clear. Writing in The Guardian, Harry Enten argued that “when you look back at who Republicans choose, a pattern quickly emerges. Every candidate in the modern nominating era has some very strong relationship to the presidency.”

Enten went on: “After losing two presidential races in a row, parties tend to nominate candidates who are more moderate than prior nominees.” And Jeb Bush “has become distinctly less conservative”, according to Joe Hagan of New York Magazine.

In spite of his relative centrism, Bush polls like a top-tier candidate, even within a party increasingly steered from the right flank. The RealClearPolitics polling average for November 18 to December 16 showed the former governor of Florida with 9.6% support among likely GOP voters.

And beyond his party’s primary, Jeb Bush actually polls well with the general public. Take Florida, for example. A November Quinnipiac poll showed him trailing Hillary Clinton in that state by only 3% of the vote, and beating her among Florida independents.

Moving back to the Republican primary, it seems that Bush could win the nomination without having to shift too far to the right a la Romney. Ben White of Politico reported in November that Jeb Bush might be deterred from running for president by the political strength of New Jersey’s Chris Christie. Now, because of the “Bridge-gate” controversy, Christie may not even be able to consider a candidacy. This means that there would be more support from moderate Republicans for a Bush candidacy.

So, Jeb Bush seems like an attractive potential candidate to a few voters, and perhaps more than a few pundits. And yet, these polls and predictions and postulations ignore glaring problems for a Bush candidacy.

Be not mistaken: “Bush fatigue” is undoubtedly real. In the last two years of his presidency, George W. Bush never saw a Gallup approval rating above 40%. And while Jeb Bush might labor to distance himself from his brother, the comparisons are unavoidable. There is nothing that the presidential aspirant could to do make voters forget the post-president.

And even if his last name were different, Jeb Bush would still struggle to connect with voters on the issues. Two of his priority issues, education and immigration reform, are not top priorities for voters, according to a Gallup poll in December 2013. To voters, the economy and the creation of jobs are areas of primary concern. Even if Jeb Bush were to win over 100% of the ballot-casters who see immigration and education as the most important problems facing the U.S., he still wouldn’t win in 2016.

However, the most crippling concern for a Bush candidacy would be related to the dynasty factor. In a time of uber-dissatisfaction with The Washington Establishment, it is highly unlikely that a majority of Americans — or even Republican primary voters — would be willing to cast their vote for a modern political dynasty.

In closing, Jonathan Tobin, writing for Commentary Magazine, best summarizes the reason why Jeb Bush should not run for President of the United States: “No matter how qualified Jeb Bush may be, Republicans understand that, like it or not, his presidential candidacy would inevitably become a referendum on his family’s place in American history.”

41 was a one-term president. 43 may have cost his party the election of 2008. Maybe, just maybe, two Bushes is enough, both for the Republican Party, and for America.