Preparing For The Clinton Landslide

On the morning after election day, America will wake to angry charges that the election was rigged. Only the least numerate will be convinced. To everyone else, it will be clear that the results were unambiguous and utterly decisive. That is how the Electoral College is supposed to work — it takes our divided country and clarifies the winner. In 2016, it will work. It will be clear.

The current RCP average shows Clinton ahead by 7.7%. Minor candidates have little impact. Add the Libertarian candidate? Clinton is ahead by 7.1%. Add the Green party candidate too? Clinton is ahead by 7.3%. This lead is steady and growing. It is likely to lead to around twice as many votes in the Electoral College for Clinton as for Trump. Note how he has stopped talking about polls.

The 538 Election Forecast currently estimates an 85.2% chance that Clinton wins and a 14.8% chance that Trump wins. These probabilities result from simulating the election 20,000 times in order to produce a probability distribution by state. The most critical states include Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, all of which are likely to vote for the Democrat this year.

So what? So Democrats should be delighted and Republicans morose. I am unaligned and have no dog in this fight. What do I want? Only to understand the evidence and to reach the correct probability-weighted conclusions. Whether they are claiming to raise the growth rate or lower the sea level, politicians tend to overstate their influence over the country. We’ll be okay.

“But I don’t want to argue about politics!” you might say. Perhaps you are an investor and you want to make some money. Well no one can blame you for that; in fact, this year both major party candidates are fans of making money themselves. If you want to make money on this election, I recommend signing up for Predict It, the stock market for politics.

Once you are signed up, you can place your bets. Which party will win the 2016 U.S. Presidential election? I bet the Democrats win. Who will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election? I bet Clinton. Will a woman be elected U.S. President in 2016? I bet yes. Why the multiple questions? Phrasing similar questions differently allows for betting more money within the constraints of the CFTC rules.

Of course if you disagree with me, all the better. That provides me liquidity and a counterparty in this pari-mutuel market. I like people who agree with me but I need people who disagree. Instead of snarling “rigged!” or “lock her up!”, simply place you bets and collect on the strength of your data and logic. You can base your views on evidence, whether or not your candidate does.