Effectively Wild’s 2024 Preseason Predictions Update
Before opening day, the hosts of Effectively Wild conducted their 2nd annual Preseason Predictions Game along with guests Michael Baumann and Ben Clemens, and with the All-Star Break here, it’s time to check in and see how things stand for each of our contestants.
Ben Lindbergh
No pitcher will reach 200 IP in the regular season.
Analysis: During the preseason, only Logan Webb appeared on any of FanGraphs’s projections above the 200 mark. With 60% of the season complete, however, a whopping 13 players are currently on pace, with Seth Lugo leading the pack at 127, and Webb slightly behind at 124.1. It’s still early, but with only one of these pitchers needing to get over the line, this feels extremely wobbly.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
The Angels will win more games this season than they did in any year with Shohei Ohtani on the team.
Analysis: The Angels never cracked a winning record during Ohtani’s tenure, peaking at 80–82 during his rookie season. So, in order for this prediction to come through, the Angels simply need a .500 season, but that’s not looking like it’s in the cards at the moment. Already 17 games below .500, FanGraphs projects a 70–92 finish to 2024.
Conclusion: VERY UNLIKELY
The average per-team stolen base total will be the highest since the 1980s.
Analysis: 1992 is the high water mark for stolen bases in the targeted time period, with 3,264 stolen bases across 26 teams for an average of 126. While 2024 started on pace to be the fifth consecutive year with increased rates, it’s since dipped down, now slightly trailing 2023’s averages. In May, I would have said it wasn’t out of the question, but a reach. Now, that reach is looking a whole lot longer.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
Joey Votto will out-homer 2022 Albert Pujols (24).
Analysis: I wish there was more to say on this topic, but fate has conspired to all but end any hope of this outcome. Signing a minor league deal with Toronto during spring training, Votto immediately suffered an ankle injury during an exhibition game and only just recently began a rehab assignment.
The silver lining (if you can call it that) is Toronto currently sitting dead last in the AL East, making it more probable that they bring him up when he’s healthy as a feel-good story to give fans more reason to come to the ball park. But assuming that were to happen immediately, Votto would need to hit home runs at a pace significantly greater than the 37 home runs he hit during his 2010 MVP season.
Conclusion: EXTREMELY UNLIKELY
The four “Jacksons” (Holliday, Job, Chourio, Merrill) will produce more fWAR than the four “Jacked Sons” (Yandy Diaz, Tyler O’Neill, Adolis Garcia, Michael Lorenzen)
Analysis: Out of the younger set, Holliday’s already been sent back down (and is currently below replacement level), and Jobe is currently expected to only join the majors in August (and is hurt). Chourio was boasting a meager 71 wRC+ well into June, though he’s started to bounce back and now could easily finish the season above 2 fWAR. Jackson Merrill is the most productive player for the Jacksons, projected for a 3+ fWAR season.
Meanwhile, the “Jacked Sons” looked to have this in the bag early, but Diaz is projected for 1.7, O’Neill at 2.8, Lorenzen at 0.7, and Garcia at 1.1. We’ve got a race on our hands!
Conclusion: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Sixto Sanchez will become the first player to earn Rookie of the Year votes in non-consecutive seasons.
Analysis: Sixto’s season hasn’t started how it needed to in order for this to convert. Giving up earned runs in all four of his first relief appearances, he was moved into the rotation a few weeks later and hasn’t fared much better, currently carrying an ERA over 6 and few indicators giving hope for better things to come.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
The regular season schedule will end with the first ever three-way tie for a playoff spot.
Analysis: The postseason is still a long way off, so there’s not much to be said here, beyond the fact that the NL Wild Card race has the ingredients to make this happen — the Mets, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, and Padres are all projected to finish within 1 game of each other. All of this is to say that I will be extremely bummed if Team Entropy ends up with a pyrrhic victory only after tiebreaker games have been taken away from us.
Conclusion: HARUMPH
At least one of the Giants’ free agent additions from the 2023–24 offseason will have a higher fWAR than Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Analysis: With Ohtani casually passing 5 fWAR as a DH, this is Yamamoto’s race to lose. He’s currently at 2.2, a much more reasonable target to chase, especially considering he’s also on the IL (and got moved to the 60-day as I’m finishing writing this, though word is that’s not having a material impact on his original timetable). Over in San Francisco, they have volume on their side, with 8 different players on their roster that are eligible to count towards this prediction. Leading the group is Matt Chapman at 2.4, and projected to finish the season at 4.2 — a full WAR higher than Yamamoto’s projection. Not a lock, but hey, definitely trending the right way!
Conclusion: LIKELY
For the second straight season, there will be a first time World Series winner.
Analysis: The combined FanGraphs odds of winning the World Series by the Rockies, Brewers, Padres, Mariners, and Rays = 10.7%. Coincidentally, if you remove the Rockies from this list, it’s still 10.7%.
Conclusion: 89.3% UNLIKELY
The average age of MLB batters, weighted by plate appearances, will be lower than in any season since the 1970s.
Analysis: Right now this is currently sitting just above 28, which isn’t young enough to cash this in and isn’t budging much.
Conclusion: VETERAN’S COMMITTEE
Ben Clemens
The top pick in the 2024 amateur draft will not be Dub Gleed, Michael Massey, Ethan Petry, or Marek Houston.
Analysis: Day 1 of the MLB Draft is complete, and Ben Clemens has scored points! For college baseball fans that are bewildered when reading the players named here, Clemens made this prediction by asking Baumann to simply name four college baseball players without revealing the context. Of the players Baumann named, Gleed and Massey are well down the draft rankings (and haven’t been picked with 2 rounds complete), while Petry and Houston aren’t eligible until 2025.
Conclusion: TRUE
Jacob deGrom will finish with a higher fWAR than Lance Lynn.
Analysis: This is a riff on a prediction from last year’s edition by Michael Baumann, who had the names flipped. This year, Clemens made this pick knowing that deGrom wasn’t expected to come off the IL until well into the season — and the current timetable seems to be penciling him in for an August return.
So, with that in mind, how well is Lance doing with his head start? With 18 games started and a 4.48 ERA, Lynn’s performing better than 2023, having already accrued more fWAR (0.8) than he did all of last year (0.5).
What I find most fascinating about this is that deGrom is projected for 0.6 fWAR once he returns, but that comes with a caveat: FGDC is extremely conservative in terms of his expected usage and only has him tabbed for three starts. If deGrom does indeed return in August, that number could easily be more than doubled, and we’re going to have an extremely interesting race on our hands, not unlike a Beat the Freeze contest.
Conclusion: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
The Seattle Mariners will not be no-hit or one-hit in a game in 2024.
Analysis: Obviously this is impossible to project, but thus far, the Mariners season low is two hits in a game.
Conclusion: READ TO THE TUNE OF A JON BOIS SOUNDTRACK
Alejandro Kirk will post the highest wRC+ among AL qualified catchers to record 300+ AB.
Analysis: This one isn’t going well considering A) Kirk’s only carrying a 79 WRC+, and B) Kirk’s not a qualified hitter and isn’t projected to reach 300 PA, let alone full-fledged at bats.
Conclusion: SCOTTY, WE NEED MORE POWER
Alek Manoah will pitch at least 150 innings and have a sub-4 ERA.
Analysis: Manoah’s been a topic of conversation for all the wrong reasons in 2024. He struggled early, got demoted, did marginally better when he was brought back up, and then his arm sproinged. He’s done for the year. On the bright side: Hey, only a 3.70 ERA!
Conclusion: FALSE
Patrick Bailey will be the first player in the 2020’s to put up 30 runs of defensive value according to Fangraphs.
̶A̶n̶a̶l̶y̶s̶i̶s̶:̶ ̶B̶a̶i̶l̶e̶y̶’̶s̶ ̶b̶e̶e̶n̶ ̶g̶o̶o̶d̶ ̶s̶o̶ ̶f̶a̶r̶ ̶(̶8̶.̶6̶ ̶D̶E̶F̶)̶,̶ ̶b̶u̶t̶ ̶n̶o̶t̶ ̶e̶v̶e̶n̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶t̶o̶p̶ ̶1̶0̶ ̶i̶n̶ ̶M̶L̶B̶ ̶a̶n̶d̶ ̶o̶n̶l̶y̶ ̶t̶h̶i̶r̶d̶ ̶a̶m̶o̶n̶g̶ ̶c̶a̶t̶c̶h̶e̶r̶s̶.̶
UPDATED ANALYSIS: The previous update was based on stale data. Bailey has been MUCH better than advertised, leading the league with 17.2 Defensive value at the All-Star break! Projected out over a full season would bring Bailey to 28.7, which is close enough to have hopes of this prediction cashing in.
Conclusion: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
A player will hit 70 home runs in the regular season.
Analysis: Aaron Judge is currently on pace for 55, though most projections are bearish and believe the final total is more likely to finish around 50. Our best hope is that MLB panics about the dead ball metrics currently being seen across the league and make another mid-season switch.
Conclusion: VERY UNLIKELY
Oneil Cruz will receive MVP votes, but still finish behind Elly De La Cruz.
Analysis: Elly is indeed leading Oneil currently in MVP odds, but the gap is much wider than it needs to be in order for both to earn votes: Oneil ranks 32nd among qualified NL position players in FWAR (with Elly 2nd), so he has some work to do.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
No player will reach 8 fWAR.
Analysis: Despite not helping Ben out by hitting 70 home runs, Aaron Judge is, however, already at 5.7 fWAR, and projected to finish at 9 — and even he’s behind Gunnar Henderson at 9.2. Others like Juan Soto isn’t too far behind either. If the leaders stay healthy, this could be in trouble as well.
Conclusion: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
The second semifinal of the Home Run Derby will go to a tiebreaker.
Analysis: Surprise! They changed the rules for the Home Run Derby. How do tiebreakers work in the semifinals? We’re not sure! Would I be able to offer any kind of insight if we did? Probably not! Tune in to the Derby later today and find out along with the rest of us whether this lands!
Conclusion: CHECK BACK IN 24 HOURS
Michael Baumann
Shohei Ohtani will steal more bases than the total of the number of games he’s suspended (if at all) + the number of open media sessions he attends during the season.
Analysis: F*** you too, Baumann.
Conclusion: (still scrolling the shobae twitter account)
Actual Analysis: Okay, fine, let’s talk about this. Ohtani currently has 23 stolen bases in 2024, which is actually tied for 4th in the league. Meanwhile, the constant vigilance of myself and a few other helpful people online — primarily Twins Daily contributor Peter Labuza — have resulted in us spotting evidence of 16 distinct media scrums since the start of the season.
The issue here is that Baumann gets points if we can’t find more, and the spite involved in this pick means I’m extremely motivated to find them. But also, by putting in that extra effort, Baumann is exacting the very specific revenge he was looking to inflict in the first place. No matter who wins… I lose. Sigh.
Actual Conclusion: VERY LIKELY
The Oakland A’s will draw fewer fans to games than the capacity of the Savannah Bananas cruise (2,402) at least 10 times.
Analysis: At the time, I really liked this pick. However, the low attendance figures in Oakland have been just enough to avoid falling below Baumann’s benchmark, with a current low of 2,895, set on a Monday night in May. Things could definitely get worse as the season drags on, but the feeling I get is that there are just enough fans wanting to attend a game before the team (likely) leaves town to keep this prediction from being fulfilled.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
Either Hagen Smith (Arkansas), Chase Burns (Wake Forest), or both will surpass the 15.3 K/9 achieved by Paul Skenes in 2023.
Analysis: Yep, they did it — they both eclipsed 17! Points for Mike.
Conclusion: TRUE
A relief pitcher (50%+ appearances in relief) will win as many games as one of the Cy Young winners.
Analysis: When it comes to relievers, three pitchers are currently sitting at 7 wins, including Hector Neris (CHC), Reed Garrett (NYM), and Jared Koenig (MIL). There are 9 starters currently at 10+ wins, but there are plenty of hurlers at the top of the WAR leaderboard who have less — Garrett Crochet only has 6 wins while leading the league at 3.8 fWAR. I wouldn’t discount the odds on this one too much.
Conclusion: IN WITH A SHOT
The Atlanta Braves will win at least 49 more games than the Chicago White Sox.
Analysis: The White Sox are holding up their end of the prediction, but the Braves have underperformed just enough to make this a tough reach. With the gap at 22 games at the halfway mark, Atlanta needs to go back on a tear — or I suppose the White Sox can discover that they haven’t actually hit rock bottom yet.
Conclusion: SELL THE TEAM, REINSDORF
There will be a combined perfect game this season.
Analysis: Feels like we haven’t even come close to sniffing this one yet.
Conclusion: N/A
At least one active MLB player will issue an apology in a press release for comments made on social media about the 2024 election or issues related thereto.
Analysis: I come to baseball for the escapism, Baumann.
Conclusion: WE ARE DOOMED
There will be at least one ejection in the Super Regional round of the NCAA tournament, but none in the College World Series.
Analysis: Hot damn, this one came through. Hot tempers between Clemson and Florida led to ejections during the Super Regional, while everyone remained calm in Omaha. Baumann’s on the board again!
Conclusion: ASS IS IN THE JACKPOT
Spencer Strider will strike out at least 300 batters.
Analysis: Strider pitched in exactly two games before going down with an injury requiring season-ending surgery. Try as he might, he was not able to average 150 K’s per start.
Conclusion: FALSE
There will be a viral or semi-viral moment involving a screenshot of a player’s nipples, gooch and/or butthole, or the outline of his penis and/or testicles being visible through their uniform during a broadcast.
Analysis: We’ve seen an awful lot of underwear outlines, sweat stains, tucked in jerseys — but so far it’s all been SFW.
Conclusion: DIGNITY INTACT
Meg Rowley
At least one position player drafted in July will play in the 2024 regular season or postseason.
Analysis: I am told that this is a weaker draft class, but I am not as experienced in understanding whether this is a decent signpost for whether this prediction is less likely as a result. Regardless, this isn’t a common occurrence, so I’m going to lean towards projecting it as such.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
Aaron Judge and Juan Soto will both hit 50+ HR.
Analysis: Like a few predictions last season, this is one where the spirit is dead on, but the actual metrics aren’t. Judge is on pace for another record breaking season, but Soto only has a relatively pedestrian 22 HR. If the prediction had been “Soto and Judge combine for 100 HR”, I’d say there was a real chance! But Soto reaching 50 would likely require his greatest half-season of batting yet.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
Shota Imanaga will finish with a higher fWAR than Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Analysis: They’re both at 2.2 fWAR. Yamamoto’s hurt, Imanaga isn’t, and projected for slightly more, so we’re gonna call this one slightly likely.
Conclusion: SLIGHTLY LIKELY
Jordan Montgomery will be unsigned as of Opening Day, but will still finish in the Top 5 of Cy Young voting.
Analysis: After all the excitement surrounding the precise timing of when he was signed and whether it counted (it did), Montgomery failed to keep the excitement going with his pitching performance. Boasting an ERA over 6, he’s currently on the IL with only 0.4 fWAR to his name. This one feels pretty conclusive in the wrong direction.
Conclusion: VERY UNLIKELY
Jackson Jobe will throw a no-hitter in the major leagues in 2024.
Analysis: As previously mentioned, Jackson Jobe has yet to debut and is currently working his way back from a hamstring injury. Would the Tigers call him up late in a lost season? I really have a hard time deciding whether their record makes it more or less likely.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
Gabriel Moreno will finish the season as the most valuable starting catcher in the National League.
Analysis: Moreno’s currently 5th in the NL at 1.7 fWAR, a good chunk behind LA’s Will Smith (3.3). Not out of it entirely, but definitely work to be done.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
The Pirates will win the NL Central.
Analysis: (shouts) MAYBE IF DEREK SHELTON WOULD LEAVE IN PAUL SKE —
(Chris is immediately shoved in a sack and beaten with reeds)
Conclusion: …ow (VERY UNLIKELY)
The Orioles will make the postseason, but will be swept out of their first postseason series.
Analysis: Well, the first part of this prediction is looking pretty damn good.
Conclusion: I have zero insight into the odds of a team being inexplicably swept in the postseason (deadpan stare at camera)
George Kirby will win the AL Cy Young Award.
Analysis: He’s in the top 5 for fWAR, I could still see it with a strong second half, and he’s a talented enough pitcher to do it.
Conclusion: COULD HAPPEN
Two Texas Rangers will finish in the Top 5 for MVP voting.
Analysis: Josh Smith is currently tops in the Rangers clubhouse at 3.0 fWAR, but that’s not near the top of the leaderboards, and Corey Seager is not as close as he would need to be to make a plausible pairing.
Conclusion: UNLIKELY
