I find large positive effects on Lib Dem vote share of between two and four percentage points — The dispersion of the Remain vote between multiple competing parties created strong incentives for coordination in the 2019 election. Three “Remain” parties (the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, and Plaid Cymru) were able to coordinate at the elite level, agreeing a joint candidate in 60 seats, but this coordination was limited…

(Some careful interpretation required) — In 2016 I produced estimates of how each Westminster constituency had (probably) voted in the UK's EU membership referendum. These estimates were necessary because the referendum was counted at the local authority level rather than the Westminster constituency level. The 2019 European Parliament elections were also counted at local authority…

The speech said nothing about how Brexit would occur, but much on how the PM views the legislature — Earlier this evening the Prime Minister made a speech on Brexit. The speech — billed this afternoon as an "appeal to the nation" — contained no new information, no new proposals, and no indication as how to the UK might reach an agreement with the EU, and thereby avoid a…

A new working paper shows voters were only slightly less likely to vote for incumbent MPs with the opposite view on Brexit — Next Tuesday, MPs will vote on the government’s proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). When they vote, MPs will have to weigh several different factors. One of those factors is public opinion — and more particularly, opinion in their constituency. According to the polls, the government’s deal is the worst form of…

tl:dr not likely — Parliamentary elections will be held on Sweden on Sunday. Because the party has grown in support, and because some party activists are racists and Nazi sympathisers, people are concerned about the possibility that the Sweden Democrats will top the poll. How likely is this? I can think of three ways…

tl;dr it's a trade-off between independence and party cohesion — Constituency Labour parties in Vauxhall and Birkenhead have expressed no-confidence in Kate Hoey and Frank Field respectively. The proximate cause was a vote on an amendment to the government’s Trade Bill (New Clause 18), where Hoey and Field, together with two other Labour MPs, voted with the government against an…