We can’t rule out “no effect” or indeed positive effects


I find large positive effects on Lib Dem vote share of between two and four percentage points


tl:dr no substantively significant association, but there may be a weak negative link


As a public law case where multiple senior judges have disagreed, the prorogation cases will be heard by a large panel

Institution of the Court of Session by James V in 1532, detail from the Great Window in Parliament House, Edinburgh. By Kim Traynor — Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=28683825


(Some careful interpretation required)

  1. These figures on their own tell us almost nothing about…


The speech said nothing about how Brexit would occur, but much on how the PM views the legislature


Why so glum, chum?


A new working paper shows voters were only slightly less likely to vote for incumbent MPs with the opposite view on Brexit


tl:dr not likely


tl;dr it's a trade-off between independence and party cohesion

Chris Hanretty

Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store