2016 Race: New Hampshire Predictions

State of the Race

Republican Presidential candidates have become more and more hostile to each other as the long campaign for the White House begins to show graphic displays of spitefulness, malice and downright bitterness. With less than 24 hours remaining, Republican candidates have broadcasted harsh television ads, used town hall meetings to voice cutting criticisms of each others public record and exchanged vicious all out personal attacks in the final live televised debate before voters decide the New Hampshire primary.

When not resorting to insults, businessman Donald Trump has largely continued his stump speeches of building a border wall, deporting over 10 million immigrants and promoted more intervention to defeat ISIS terrorists. Mr Trump has also continued his lead in New Hampshire, with opinion polls pointing to a large double-digit win.

The main candidate, who appeared to gain ‘momentum’ after finishing third in Iowa, was Florida Senator Marco Rubio. Rubio managed to exceed expectations in Iowa and position himself well to defeat the other establishment candidates aiming for a one on one scenario against businessman Donald Trump to ultimately claim the nomination.

The one candidate who is experiencing the most difficulty in gaining traction is Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. After a poor showing in the Iowa Caucus, his candidacy will become further doomed and possibly permanently damaged heading towards South Carolina and Super Tuesday in March.

The main reasons why Bush is currently failing to build excitement as was the expectation from his logo of JEB! 2016 (See above image, second from right), is due to three main factors. The first is because of a voting public unwilling to endorse a third Bush for the White House. The second reason comes from a severe lack of debate preparation, particularly against rivals such as Trump going after his weaknesses. Finally, his inability to distinguish himself on the stump-speech with a memorable line of attack or even an unrehearsed line of criticism towards other candidates in media interviews has hurt him badly.

Predictions

Opinion polls currently have Donald Trump in first place by a comfortable margin followed by a cluster of candidates around the 10–20% mark with neurosurgeon Ben Carson and businesswoman Carly Florina polling below 10%.

All Republican candidates have indicated they intend to continue onto the next primary, South Carolina regardless of where they finish in New Hampshire. However, each candidate is attempting to gain momentum from this primary with a “strong” finish of either second, third or even fourth if they poll within a small margin of each other.

Republican Predictions

Donald Trump — Outright First with 25% (Range: 22–26%). Most polls have him higher but he lacks the strong field operation to boost his numbers through volunteers’ door-knocking and cold-calling residents to vote. Should voters send a clear signal to the party, he could win by a wide margin, even over 10 points.

John Kasich — Second. 18–20%. Arguably the hardest position to predict is second since the establishment candidates are all within small margins of one another and could easily be any position from second to sixth. However, Ohio Governor John Kasich had a very positive debate performance outlining an optimistic compassionate conservative record. Kasich has also placed all of his political capital into finishing strong in New Hampshire by conducting the most town hall meetings of any candidate and a second place should reflect this commitment.

Chris Christie — Third. 15–17%. By far the candidate to most look out for in this primary. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has been building energy through town halls and by heavily attacking Marco Rubio. His standout performance in the last debate wounded Rubio to the point where he could conceivably overtake Rubio.

Marco Rubio — Fourth. 14–16%. Had raised expectations since finishing third in the Iowa Caucus. Failed to maintain momentum after being attacked from Jeb Bush’s super PAC and being damaged harshly by Chris Christie in the debate.

Ted Cruz — Fifth. 12–14%. Texas Senator Ted Cruz kept steady after victory in Iowa. Cruz will find it harder to win support since New Hampshire is not considered very evangelical when compared to voters in Iowa. His debate performance didn’t help or hurt him.

Jeb Bush — Sixth. 9–12%. Struggling to maintain support within the top tier candidates. Needs a unlikely turnout in the result to rebuild political capital heading towards South Carolina and Super Tuesday in March.

Ben Carson — Seventh. Below 8%. Did not have a strong debate performance. Lack of field operation, excitement and fan following in New Hampshire will hurt him in this primary but Carson has already stated he intends to compete in South Carolina.

Carly Florina — Eighth. Below 6%. The decision from (American) ABC News to not include Florina into the last debate fatally wounded her chances in New Hampshire. Florina expects to continue after New Hampshire despite being a long way back in the field.

Democratic Predictions

Bernie Sanders —Outright first with 50% (Range: 47–52%). Sanders can and should win. He had a strong debate performance plus has built a strong field operation, excitement and fan following in New Hampshire. He will need to start focusing on gaining support and commitment from minority voters fast if he is to be competitive in South Carolina.

Hillary Clinton — Second with 45% (40–47%). Clinton continued to exploit what is becoming a growing concern and liability for the Sanders campaign which is his electability for the general election in November. Clinton has planned for the long haul and is now aiming for victory in South Carolina.

I will revisit these predictions once the results have been tallied.