True Threats or False Alarms?
An analysis of the 2019 WorldWide Threat Assessment
The United States of America faces many threats and challenges from powerful adversaries like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. However, the United States faces threats from non-state actors and terrorist organizations as well as creating a diverse and difficult agenda. Regarding North Korea, U.S. President, Donald J. Trump has been making significant progress within the Korean Peninsula (or so it seems) as he declared that North Korea is “no longer a nuclear threat,” and that denuclearization is possible. However, the 2019 WorldWide Threat Assessment stated the opposite as “North Korea retains its WMD capabilities,” (Coats,2019 p.8) moreover the North Korean leaders “view nuclear arms as critical to regime survival” and are not likely to relinquish such power as it would deal a massive blow to its state legitimacy and bargaining power (Coats,2019 p.8). The intelligence community continues to “observe activity inconsistent with full denuclearization” such as the order to “mass produce weapons in 2018” coupled with another law that reaffirmed North Korea’s “nuclear status” (Coats,2019 p.9). North Korea will continue its nuclear weapon production and proliferation “even as it seeks to negotiate partial denuclearization” to appease the international community and the United States(Coats,2019 p.27).
Thus, North Korean nuclear capability poses a critical threat to the U.S. and its allies with significant capability (Coats,2019 p.27). The dialogue between Trump and Kim Jong Un are at best superficial, the definition of denuclearization for the United States and North Korea are two completely different things. Once a definition that is agreed upon emerges between the two states, then a comprehensive protocol and agreement can be met which will begin to see North Korean threat levels downgrade and true progress be achieved. Nevertheless, North Korea remains committed to its intentions encompassing economic, diplomatic, and global recognition by means of maintaining their nuclear weapons program and keeping their firm seat on the international table.
In Iran, the U.S. intelligence community continues to assess that Iranian nuclear capabilities are limited as Iran is currently not “undertaking the key nuclear weapons development” that the intelligence community “judges necessary” to produce and proliferate “nuclear devices” (Coats,2019 p.10). This is opposed to Donald Trump’s statements that Iran is not abiding by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Iran’s main objective is to “gain tangible trade and investment benefits” through the JCPOA and its continued adherence to it. However, Iran’s compliance with the JCPOA has allowed it to expand its nuclear infrastructure by manufacturing “advanced centrifuges” and “natural uranium hexafluoride (UF6).” This poses a significant security threat to the U.S. along with its regional interests if Iran is allowed to continue expansion and production of nuclear components. Iran’s ballistic missile programs “continue to pose a threat to countries across the Middle East” and must be contained to ensure peace and stability in the region(Coats,2019 p.10). The U.S. should also ensure sanctions remain implemented unless Iran reduces its nuclear production in cooperation with JCPOA, then a partial relief of sanctions would be enacted. Finally, Iranian hostility towards the U.S. should not be underestimated as they pose a significant threat to the U.S., but Iranian nuclear capabilities remain limited.
Concerning terrorism and the Islamic State, President Trump continues to claim that the Islamic State is “defeated,” the intelligence community states the contrary while saying that “ISIS still commands thousands of fighters” both in Iraq and Syria. They also have maintained “eight branches…more than a dozen networks… thousands of dispersed supporters” (Coats,2019 p.11). Counterterrorism efforts need to be maintained as “the group will exploit any reduction in CT pressure to strengthen its clandestine presence” leading to a potential resurgence of ISIS. Moreover, ISIS will continue to “pursue external attacks from Iraq and Syria” against the United States and its allies. The intelligence community also assesses that “ISIS will seek to exploit Sunni grievances, societal instability, and stretched security forces to regain territory in Iraq and Syria in the long term” (Coats,2019 p.11). The hostilities of ISIS and capabilities remain at a significant level to U.S. security and global interests.
Moving towards domestic issues, U.S. President Trump claims that there are a crisis and a potential national emergency on the southern U.S. border, the intelligence community mentions no such thing. The southern border nor emergencies surrounding it are explicitly presented in the assessment. However, the current situation in central America will “spur additional US-bound migrants from the Northern Triangle — El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras” (Coats,2019 p.41). The main threats posed to the U.S. is through “transnational organized crime” as “trafficking drugs, exerting malign influence in weak states, threatening critical infrastructure, orchestrating human trafficking, and undermining legitimate economic activity” are many tools used by “violent Mexican traffickers” (Coats,2019 p.18). These threats could jeopardize U.S. human and state security interests along with economic, and global interests as a result of transnational organized crime. Based on the report, there isn’t a crisis at the Southern U.S. border however, the continued efforts of deterring and stopping the illicit flow of drugs and managing the flow of migrants remains an important objective of the United States.
Shifting towards the East, The intelligence Community assess that “China’s economic growth is likely to slow in 2019,” moreover, the current trade tensions between the U.S. and China have resulted in “a slowdown in new export orders,” signifying that “China’s export sector will suffer in 2019” (Coats,2019 p.20). As of 2017, China has focused efforts on “stemming risks in China’s financial system,” which reduced “bank credit growth to the lowest rate in a decade,” suggesting further erosion of the Chinese economy. The report does not explicitly mention the “major threat” that Chinese trade practices pose to the United States economy as stated by Trump(Coats,2019 p.20).
The intelligence community regarding China focuses on cyber, military, counterintelligence, WMD, and the continued collaboration of China and Russia to “expand their global influence…eroding once well-established security norms” (Coats,2019 p.4). Through China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a significant threat is posed as the “Belt and Road Initiative could facilitate PLA access to dozens of additional ports and airports and significantly expand China’s penetration of the economies and political systems of participating countries” (Coats,2019 p.25). This threatens U.S. allies and regions where the U.S. has vested interests, overall China poses a critical threat to U.S. interests across the board.
Finally, a few portions of the assessment drew my attention, specifically the section on Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy, this is seen by many as the new race for supremacy as technology is rapidly developing. The “AI-enhanced systems are likely to be trusted…autonomy and decision-making” which could be weaponized by states like China or Russia and pose a critical threat to the United States (Coats,2019 p.15). The advances in biotechnology also come into play as major threats to current and future U.S. interests. Adversaries can begin to weaponize biotechnology and produce “novel biological warfare agents, threaten food security, and enhance or degrade human performance” (Coats2019 p.16). Another subject that concerned me was the aspect of Human Security, in which the spread of migrants and refugees could lead to the outbreak of infectious diseases if not properly controlled. An example of such would be the crisis in Venezuela which has “reversed gains in controlling infectious diseases” (Coats,2019 p.21) and has put U.S. allies at risk. Overall, President Donald Trump has gone against the main concerns of the intelligence community and acted autonomously, even acting adversely to the main bureaucracy that was created to protect and support our democratic integrity by any means necessary. The misdirection and prioritization of Trump’s agenda has regressed American foreign policy and spells a future that could see a shift in power, one thing is for sure, only time will tell.