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Chris Loblaw

Brexit: Cameron’s Catastrophic Conceit

Let’s talk about political strategy. Specifically, let’s discuss the worst political gambit that I have ever seen. Oh Davey, whoever told you the referendum was a brilliant idea should be fired and deported back to the Land of Terrible Plans. Here’s a quick rundown of the political rules of survival he ignored:

  1. NEVER start a fight you’re not sure you will win. Cameron could have let things lie and push the immigration/EU issue to the next election. Instead, he voluntarily put himself up for a confidence vote with the people (even though many of the voters didn’t realize their ‘leave’ vote would push him out)
  2. Lock in your allies BEFORE the campaign launches. The reports filtering out now suggest that the Labour camp and their Socialist-in-Chief Jeremy Corbyn put in a half-assed effort for the ‘Remain’ campaign. The lack of a unified front hurt the cause and led to a lot of effort being wasted in internal bickering between the Prime Minister’s office and Labour HQ. And Corbyn’s reward for sitting in the bush? Party revolt!
  3. Don’t be the only one with skin in the game. When it came to political consequences, the only one with something to lose was Cameron. He called the referendum to prop up his position within his own party: why would any non-Tory expend their own political capital trying to help him stay PM? Other than staving off the roiling, messy aftermath of a successful ‘leave’ vote, there was nothing to be gained for anyone outside of Cameron’s inner circle. Everyone else gets to scurry away and hide from the repercussions of the referendum. Dave’s got a mess that won’t just vanish, and it’s all his until October.
  4. GET ON MESSAGE, STAY ON MESSAGE. It’s pretty clear that a lot of the people who voted to leave the EU didn’t really understand the ramifications. Cameron should have been hammering those consequences epeatedly on the campaign trail. But more importantly, he needed to sing the praises of the EU loudly and without reserve. Voters need something to vote for, not just against.
  5. Have an exit plan. And quitting doesn’t count. Quitting doesn’t take care of the resulting instability and uncertainty that is embracing the UK. In fact, it’s slightly worse off because Cameron is looking for the door. It’s not fun to create a plan to deal with losing, but it’s the responsibility of good leadership to have that plan. The ‘Leave’ campaigners neither have the authority nor the interest in doing the hard work of planning and implementing the EU/UK break-up.
  6. Referendums are a terrible way to decide anything complicated. If you want to decide which movie to watch or what toppings go on a pizza, then a simple majority vote is great. Anything more complex than that, though, and you’re using the wrong decision-making tool. Referendums offer the electorate to voice their displeasure at something which may or may not be the actual thing their voting on. Brexit was oversimplified to a vote for/against immigration, with a side order of “I don’t want to pay for improvements in places I don’t live” (which totally ignored all of the EU funding that does get spent in the UK. )

Sure, you can argue that, since the referendum is non-binding, parliament could just mutter ‘nope, nothing doing’ and go on with its day. But the reality is that the toothpaste is out of the tube. No matter what the next steps are, the electorate has made their will known through a legitimate democratic exercise. To call another referendum with more rigourous threshholds would undermine the process itself and set a dangerous precedent. You can’t change the rules and have a do-over when you don’t get the result you want, even if the results are a mess. The safest route to backing away from Brexit is to have a general election where membership in the EU is a key campaign issue, and the winner of that election will have the mandate to move forward. Which is what poor ol’ Dave should have done in the first place.