Donald Trump can’t count on an easy path to reelection. As of my writing this, he consistently trails his more well-known Democratic opponents in national and state election polls. Nevertheless, prognosticators like the Sabato Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report are banking on a close election. The question remains, however, what if this doesn’t happen?
Since the Civil War, sixteen Presidents have run for reelection (Note this doesn’t include Presidents who ascended through the line of succession). Of these, six were defeated, giving an initial success rate of about 60 percent. One could use this statistic as proof that…
With the surge in Joe Biden’s poll numbers since the announcement of his presidential campaign, an emerging backlash on the left is arguing, among other things, that Biden’s past and ongoing support of free trade deals like NAFTA poses a major threat to his candidacy.
The problem with this argument, however, is that support for free trade isn’t nearly the electoral weight some progressives might wish it was. As part of the Democratic Party’s evolution towards a younger and more educated base, they’ve also become increasingly supportive of trade and globalization.
When it Comes to 2020 Democrats, the Field is Far from Balanced
You can be forgiven if you’ve stopped counting the number of Democrats running for President in 2020. With the entry of Joe Biden into the race, the total has climbed to 20 simultaneous major candidates (21 total if you count already-withdrawn Richard Ojeda).
This beats the previous record by four and nearly doubles the average from the last 20 years. It also doesn’t account for any potential late-entries like Michael Bennet, Bill De Blasio, and Stacey Abrams.
Graduate Student at WM, talks a lot about data and politics