Quick Thoughts Pre-Lock 2–23–17

A few thoughts on the latest box office movement pre-Theater Lock in the CinemaDraft game from the CEO/Founder.

  • The clear leader in points this weekend should be GET OUT. Great premise, great marketing, the biggest opening new release of the weekend. If you’re going Stars & Scrubs, start there.
  • HIDDEN FIGURES just refuses to die! At 2022 screens, it’s going to stay a Wide release, and make its customary $7M-$8M for the weekend. Ranging from $7500 to $8500 for headliner Taraji P. Henson, you could do worse for your money.
  • I’m putting all my Platform release chips in the middle on I AM NOT YOUR NEGRO. It adds about 90 theaters this weekend, bringing its total up to about 348 screens. It should be the highest screen count for a Platform release and it still ranked 6th in per-screen average last weekend. Now you’ve found your “Scrubs” value play at $7400 for James Baldwin the headliner.
  • Limited release is going to come down to who do you trust more: LION or LA LA LAND? Both have Oscar nominations and award aspirations. Both have expanded slightly this weekend. Both are hovering around 1800 screens, or the top end of the Limited release category. And both averaged about $3400 per screen last weekend. The choice is yours.
  • Splitting the difference in Limited is, well, SPLIT. Dropping just under 2000 screens for the first time, this $8.5M grosser last weekend ($125M+ overall) could be the darkhorse in this release type. Does it have enough crazy left in it to win it?

For earlier, and more in-depth strategy, check out The Shot List in the latest CinemaDraft podcast episode here.

Play the CinemaDraft game! Theater lock occurs at 6PM PT every Thursday. Game starts Thursdays at 10PM PT, ending Mondays at 4PM PT. Sign up or login here.