Macron vs Le Pen, How does it Impact the UK?
Just when we thought that Brexit talks could finally get under way, the UK might be hit by another political curveball. Just across the channel a fascinating French election is taking place with two candidates who are the polar opposite to each other, without a doubt the conclusion of this election will have detrimental affects on the United Kingdom going forward.
Who are the final two nominees for the election? Emmanuel Macron; leader of a centrist, independent party known as ‘On the move’ or ‘En Marche’. Macron in August 2016 stepped down as minister of the economy, industry and digital affairs to launch his own presidential bid and presumably enter the election race as an outsider, but quietly confident nonetheless. His opponent, Marine Le Pen who initially at the start of the election was leader of the Front National party, later stepped down in an attempt to broaden her appeal to the whole of France. What makes this election so intriguing is that Macron and Le Pen could not be more different in terms of their policies and vision for France.
Emmanuel Macron
Key issues like unemployment, immigration and France’s position within the European Union are all areas that the French public want addressing. So, what does Macron propose to do? Macron is strongly Pro-Europe believing France will benefit from keeping it’s membership especially emphasising the need for free trade. He also plans to alter the Competitiveness and Employment tax credit scheme (CICE) to try and reduce business costs. Fines on firms who favour short term contracts rather than permanent ones is another policy he would implement. Security in France has been a major worry for a while now, Macron feels that boosting frontier policing by 5,000 and over the next 3 years recruiting 10,000 more people into the police force would be the best way of tackling this growing issue.
Marine Le Pen
How does Macron’s counterpart differentiate then? Le Pen is firmly anti-Europe and would hold a referendum on France’s role in Europe seeking to achieve full sovereignty. Marine Le Pen also wants to bring back the Franc relinquishing the Euro currency. Exiting the Schengen boarder-free zone and imposing taxes on foreign workers is another big proposed change Le Pen wants to make. Furthermore, tariffs on imported goods means potentially no free trade for France with member states of the EU, Le Pen is really trying to convey a ‘France first’ orientated approach to her campaign. Like Macron, Marine Le Pen feels more policing is required, she would like to hire 6,000 more customs officers and 15,000 more police officers whilst also creating 40,000 more prison spaces.
Very contrasting aims, objectives and outlook for France’s future but, how does this election affect the United Kingdom? Brexit negotiations will be on-going and France hold significant power and influence in the European Union. If Emmanuel Macron is to be successful, what will his impact be? Most importantly, the probability of free trade will reduce as the UK will no longer be a member of the EU. It depends on whether Macron will stick to maintaining the free trade agreement or look to make the UK worse off by taking away one of the prominent components of the single market. However, the United Kingdom is a big trading market for France both in exports and imports, the UK imports more from France than export so would jeopardising trading ties be within the best interest for France?
A Marine Le Pen France taking into account her proposed policies does look more promising for the United Kingdom. Suppose Le Pen wins this election and the French public follow in the UK’s footsteps and leaves the EU, France will need to cooperate and plan for the future outside of the EU. The UK being in the same position should incentivise trade deals and effective cooperation between the two countries. But, Le Pen does plan to impose tariffs on imported goods which could create a hindrance to trade, but this depends on whether French firms and consumers are willing to pay a higher price for UK imports. The same would also apply for UK firms and consumers regarding French imports.
A topic that has arisen from both Brexit talks and the ongoing French election is what happens to EU citizens living in France and the UK? For sure Le Pen quite clearly is going to make it increasingly more difficult for foreign workers to find a job in France with added charges to businesses for employing non French nationals. Macron might be more lenient given his support of the free movement of people but it is a relatively unanswered question which the EU parliament have made sure will be answered by holding Brexit talks until the dilemma has been resolved.
There is growing political uncertainty revolving around the impact the French election will have on the UK. Teresa May and her negotiating team already have an uphill battle in making ‘a success of Brexit’ and now the task might become even more strenuous.