Data Analysis of the 2024 Philadelphia Phillies & Intro to Bozball
Most of my quantitative analysis blogs have been about small-to-mid market ballclubs, KC Royals, Brewers, Marlins. So doing an analysis on the Phillies is quote the change of pace. The biggest difference is the philosophy of building an offensive roster. (Most of my analysis is from an offensive perspective)
When I talk about roster construction there’s a few ways to go about it. If you read my Milwaukee Brewers cover letter/ quantitative analysis you’ll see a more tactical approach with a hyper focus on hitting with RISP. That’s because smaller market teams can’t afford to buy the home run, and hitters/pitchers perform differently with RISP.
Hitting with RISP is less of a factor when you have batters that can go yard the moment they step into the box. I have my doubts about front offices that do this, it’s costly and what happens if your team makes the playoffs and faces a team 1,2,3 pitcher and primarily generates runs via the home run? Nonetheless, it is 100% a way to win regular season games when we are playing in large numbers if you have the powder as a front office. I.e. The Angels, it’s less effective if you only can only afford or are willing to pay 3 FA big bucks like Trout/Ohtani/Rendon. Teams just wont pitch to those guys when it actually matters.
I say that to understand it’s not just about buying homerun guys, it’s about building a team, which is why I am a big advocate of MLB implementing a 16% rule or “the Arte Clause”. What the Arte Clause would do is hold owners financially accountable throughout the duration of these mega deals.
But I digress, another story for another time today we are talking about the PHIGHTENS!
I am going to touch on the phillies 2023 report card.
- 2023 Run Differential Review
- 2023 Runs Allowed Review
- 2023 Runs Scored Review
- Revised BozBall acronyms
- Offensive breakdown
- Recommendations
Philadelphia Phillies Report Card from 2023 :
Overall (RD Grade) :
In 2023 the Philadelphia Phillies were a B+ RD (Run Differential) Grade Team. Aside from the Marlins, the Diamondbacks were the only other team to make the playoffs with a negative RD. Teams finished with a RD Grade of B+ or better had a 83.33% chance of making the playoffs.
In terms of goals for the 2024 season the Phillies should aim to have a RD of a B+ (+81) team or better.
Pitching (RA Grade) :
In 2023 the Philadelphia Phillies were a B+ RA (Runs Allowed) Grade Team. All teams that made the playoffs had a B- or better RA (runs allowed) Grade. It’s difficult to get better pitching YoY unless you dip into FA and sign. The Phillies signed back Aaron Nola, but otherwise they have done nothing to improve their staff or pen. The Phillies bullpen that is losing 69 innings from Craig Kimbrel, and as much as the Phillies fans hated seeing Craig come into the games he was never injured in 2024. If the Phillies do not sign Montgomery/Snell or Radial Martínez I do not think the Phillies will be improved from last year. This puts a lot of pressure on the Phillies offense.
Offense (RS Grade) :
In 2023 the Philadelphia Phillies were an A- RS (Runs Scored) Grade Team. Since the Philadelphia Phillies pitching has not improved from last year, if all else remains equal from a pitching perspective, in order to be a B+ RD (+79) team the Phillies need to score 792 runs as a team. 792 runs would put the Phillies in the A- Range for RS and B+ in terms of RD, if they repeat their pitching performance from last year. From a data perspective, anything less than that is not putting the team in a position to win and make the playoffs.
How will the Phillies Offense project?
Also before we get started for all you #Bozballers I have an announcement to make. Moving forward #Bozball will be using the following acronyms:
The way I categorize the stats may change. I frequently think about separating BB+IBB from (SB-CS), but at the end of the day walking is a skill as much as stealing a base is a skill using your legs. One is just stealing a base off the pitcher from home plate and the other is starting at 1B. The idea behind this was to help understand how much a player can impact the game using their legs. If a team does not have home run hitters (small market — mid market), a BB or IBB is only as good as the player’s ability to get into scoring position. Honestly, I go back and forth, but for now that’s how I measure players. Could change in the future.
This rating methodology is not new, but it’s not popular in the mainstream baseball community yet nor have I seen it categorized the way I do it. I am hoping this will catch on and replace static stats like Total Bases. The system is pretty accurate. Based on 2023 numbers it’s roughly 93.8% accurate or 6.20% off.
To any haters, I am not an MIT graduate. It’s close enough and the math is simple enough for even a novice fan to understand, so deal with it. The point of all this is to put everyday fans in the GM seat, and to be critical of player and team construction.
When we talk about analytics and measuring players my hope is to help them understand what GMs in front offices are thinking. I want fans to shift away from traditional stats that are very static and do not tell you how that translates into runs. For a full breakdown of MLB 2023 position by position w/ A,B,C Grade breakdown and team totals for 2023 click that link.
Phillies 2024 offensive projections using BozBall.
Based on Fangraphs projections and RVHR rating system I use to measure players the Philadelphia Phillies are a 5.0501 RVPG (run value per game) team which means they are estimated to score 818.12 runs in 2024.
818 Projected Runs Scored (RS) — 715 Runs Allowed (RA) = +103 Run Differential (RD)
If the Phillies wanted to really secure a playoff spot they would aim to be a +136 Run Differential (RD) Team. If we are looking at the lineup from a strictly offensive perspective the one position that sticks out is CF. There are a few ways to increase the RS of the Phillies by messing with more playing time for the big guns, but as a whole 818 runs scored would put the Phillies in that A range of offensive production. So I am not going to mess with the lineup a ton if it sacrifices defense or changes some guys approaching. Obviously I have opinions on certain guys, i.e. Marsh should SO less than 30% given he doesn’t hit 30 jacks and can steal bases, but that’s a blog for another time and why the team goes and signs a guy like Merrifield.
My recommendations :
That being said, the Phillies bullpen is losing 69 innings from Craig Kimbrel, and as much as the Phillies fans hated seeing Craig come into the games he was never injured in 2024. Going into 2024 the Phillies look to insert José Alvardo into that closer’s role, and for Kerkering to eat up the innings in Alvardo’s prior role. My biggest concern is José Alvarado is his durability. Alvarado has a history of arm injuries and has never pitched over 56 innings since 2018.
Thinking about this from a GM/Manager perspective, I have a hard time starting the season knowing that I may need to add a high leverage guy at any moment or my pen will be missing 50+ innings from my best reliever. That’s a big ask of any front office and honestly I think it’s unrealistic and irresponsible. That’s one of the reasons I was high on the Phillies landing Hader. He’s never hurt and he shoves.
Now that Hader is with the Astros, I would look to Raidel Martínez. He is the Mariano Rivera of the Nippon Baseball League. Raidel’s setup man with the Chunichi Dragons, Yariel Rodriguez, just signed with the Toronto Blue Jays to 4 yr / $32 mil. So that’s going to be around the asking price. I would offer a 5 yr / $40 mil.
I think a durable closer was a must for this team. If they can’t do that then I would also look to lighten the bullpen’s workload by signing a Snell or Montgomery. I haven’t thoroughly investigated Snell or Montgomery, but the one thing that sticks out to me about Snell is opposing hitter SLG % on his FB over the years that he uses 49% of the time.
-Philly Boz out!
Link to spreadsheet with playing time and projections.
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