Long time Twins likely on the move this offseason
The Twins pursuit for impact pitching likely means parting ways with one or both of Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco.
Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler members of the Minnesota Twins organization since signing as international free agents in 2009. Polanco made his major league debut in 2014 and Kepler in 2015, in their time with the Twins they’ve made four postseason appearances, been key parts of three division championship teams and were a part of the first Twins team to win a playoff game in almost two decades.
Now it is likely one or both could be playing for a different team come opening day 2024. With the loss of starters Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda the Twins will likely look to the trade market rather than free agency for a front line starter.
In order to make a deal for a frontline starter you have to give something to get something and the Twins have a plethora of middle infield depth they can tap into. Atop that list is Jorge Polanco and top prospect Brooks Lee. One or both of which will be necessary in order to acquire a pitcher like say Jesus Luzardo of the Miami Marlins.
Dealing for a pitcher of Luzardos caliber can be tricky though and likely would require more than just Kepler or Polanco in order to strike a deal. At just 26 years old and under team control through 2027 Luzardo posted a 3.58 ERA and 3.55 FIP for Miami last season. An ideal fit to fill the Sonny Gray sized hole in the number two spot of the Twins rotation. The deal will likely have to include one or multiple of Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brooks Lee and Marco Raya to get it done. Steep prospect capital the Twins may be unwilling to give up.
The Toronto Blue Jays could be another potential fit for Polanco or Kepler looking to add another bat to their lineup. Although from the Twins standpoint the type of pitcher they’re looking for may not be available from Toronto’s rotation.
While Polanco and Kepler may not end up being Marlins or Blue Jays, they are likely not Twins come April. Kepler has been a part of offseason trade speculation going all the way back to the 2020 offseason. Coming off his best season since 2019 his value likely will never be higher and at $10 million in the final year of his contract he’s a steal compared to other outfielders on the free agent market like Teoscar Hernandez.
As already discussed with Polanco the second base depth chart is incredibly crowded. Beyond Polanco and Lee there’s also Edouard Julien, Austin Martin and maybe even Royce Lewis depending on how the Twins want to shuffle him and Lee positionally.
More than likely someone has to go and Lewis is currently the Twins opening day third baseman and showed star potential in limited playing time last year. Julien could be moved as well but has nearly reached his peak offensively yet either. Martin doesn’t really move the needle enough on his own to trade for a starting pitcher. Leaving Lee and Polanco as the two most likely trade candidates of the Twins middle infielders.
Trading one or both of the longest tenured members is a difficult decision to make and both Polanco and Kepler carried the Twins lineup at times in 2023. But this could be the final opportunity the Twins have to use that value to their advantage and fill holes at positions of need.
