source: tesla.com

Model 3 deposit

My Tesla Model 3 deposit is quietly sitting in the queue. I’m not worried. You shouldn’t be either. Relax, it’ll be okay.

If you were counting on the Model 3 to be your next vehicle and you’re on a lease that’s about to end, you’re in a tight spot. But deep down, you knew you weren’t entirely sure when you’d get your car. You were betting on hope. Nothing good ever happens from betting on hope. You might need to buy a used car to tie you over.

Sure, you had faith in Elon to ramp production to hit the 500k-car milestone at the end of 2018. It might still happen. But don’t count on the production happening at the rate you think it’ll happen this year. Always bet conservatively, if there even exists such a concept.

They say past performance is not indicative of future results, but often they think about it in terms of upside. In terms of downside, past performance is not indicative of future results: the future can always be much worse, as we learned in 2016. Production of a brand-new car isn’t easy for an automaker — there are always kinks and flaws and reliability issues — much less for a startup. (Yes, despite it being public, Tesla is still a startup.) Though I fully expect Tesla to be able to deliver on its production numbers, you never know what could happen to hinder that efficiency.

If you are disappointed or frustrated for any other reason about the Model 3 radio silence, reframe your expectations. Examples: you’re concerned about the federal tax credit, you’re upset that you haven’t heard any details about the car, you’re unsure of how to operate a financial plan based on a car that has no pricing information.

Be patient. It’s coming, it’s exciting, but it won’t be nearly as exciting if you get your hopes up. We’ll see what happens on Friday, but in the meantime, calm down. It’ll be so much more exciting if you don’t know what to expect. Besides, what sort of person puts down a $1k deposit (refundable, of course) on a car they’ve never seen, they’ve never driven, and that’s entirely new? Yes, I did, but you shouldn’t have.

It’s going to be an interesting year for Tesla.

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